1. The Offer: 8th in the Melbourne Cup. Stays at 3200m. Has a turn of foot as proven last start in the cup. Top weight here. Obviously a top chance.
2. Almoonqith: Just ignore last start. Will be pushing further forward than last today. Clearly if the speed is on he is very well suited here. Looks a very good chance based on form to date.
3. Grand Marshal: One of the many runners smashed during runs in the Melb Cup. Obviously has the ability to run well but hasn’t shown it this prep.
4. Precedence: Old mate is now 10. Not going well enough.
5. De Little Engine: Gem of a ride to win last start at Flemington. Much harder this. Not for mine.
6. Like A Carousel: Every chance well beaten last start at Flemington. Really wanting the 3200m and a good track but clearly has to improve.
7. Maygrove: Continues to run well and up to 3200m looks ideal here for the horse. Can improve.
8. Renew: Well back, didn’t find alot at all last start. Been horrible all prep. Should go fine at distance but not on current form.
9. Tremec: Ran very well last start beaten 1L by De Little Engine. Horrible barrier again, go forward and push tempo.
10. Manalapan: Looks to be the key leader in the race today. Showed nothing first up at Flemington. Never run over distance in past. Runs over in Ireland won over 2600m on Good track. Not sure he is good enough on what we have seen, but 54kg gets him in okay?
11. Sasenkile: Not got within more than 3.3L this prep against much easier. Never measured up to this level and can’t see it today.
12. Pop ‘N’ Scotch: Well beaten last start at Flemington. Ran Zanteca to 0.8L at Geelong previous start. Goes well at distance but never won at it or in class.
13. Planet Purple: Not won in a long time. Never placed in 3 tries at distance and no win in 17 tries in class.
15. Refectory: we know the horse will get the 3200m… but he has proven this prep he isn’t this class.
Comments: Three main chances for me in The Offer, Almoonqith and Maygrove. All signs point to Almoonqith for mine. Looks a big price on paper. Very few winning chances on paper for this race.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7
Strategy: Almoonqith Each-Way
