1. Taddei Tondo: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley and just not good enough. Down in class but up to 61kg has to be a concern. Did win with 62.5kg three runs back though so we know the horse handles weight. 5 runs 0 wins at track.
2. Del Prado: Has won first up in the past, but never won at track. 6 starts in this class for a win. Won very well at Flemington two runs back on a wet track. Best runs recently have all been on wet.. did win on good at Bendigo but didn’t beat too much that day. Has to be 100% first up and barrier doesn’t help.
3. Galaxy Pegasus: Old(young) mate has cost us a bundle this prep. He keeps running well but not winning. Well back in class to his lowest grade all prep and finds himself off 57kg. Concerns over the barrier is the main issue as he is a horse that wants room and to be racing off the rails.
4. Gallant Harmony: Hard horse to catch! First run at track. 6 runs in class previously but yet to win. First three runs this prep were ‘okay’ but well beaten each time. Has to improve and weight doesn’t help against some other good horses.
5. Mr Backchat: McEvoy runner! Going through the grades back home with a BM-90 win last start in very nice time. Weighted fairly here and can certainly measure up here.
6. Swift Shadow: Put in some very sound efforts last prep including a 1400m 2nd to Gracious Prospect in Open Class at Flemington. Third up now, expect him to be much closer to the speed today than previously ridden this prep. Last start at this course over 1400m he won well from on speed. Has the ability to win.
7. Kirani: Maps to run and lead them around from a wide barrier today. Won with ease last start at Kilmore from on speed back on a dry surface. Has a 2.3L win over Burning Front on the record from last prep. Clearly a good horse and may just get away with very easy sectionals… has a turn of foot.
10. King Buddy: 9YO now. Did a lot wrong last start at Kilmore but fairly beaten. Down 3kg while Kirani is only down 1kg. Barrier hurts to get a good spot in running though.
11. Squeaky Squirrel: Last start winner at Wodonga. Previous run fairly beaten at MV and ditto the previous run by Taddei Tondo.
13. Le Remas: Put him in the books with We’re Gonna Rock. Should retire him.
15. Impulsive Spirit: Out the back last start at Kilmore didn’t help. Fairly beaten favourite last start at Bendigo. Has to improve.
16. Diamondwarrior: Low weight, deserves it. Last win was a maiden in 2014! Best on wetter.
Comments: As the Quaddie numbers suggest, there are several chances in this race, but two front runners on my mapping certainly appeal as the biggest overs in the race in Kirani and Swift Shadow. Their best runs are more than enough to win this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 15
Strategy: Back Kirani and Swift Shadow to win.
Staking: Win Bets – Kirani 0.65 units @ $13. Swift Shadow 0.35 units @ $23.
