1. Tried and Tired: Old mate never runs a bad race! Has won first up, great track record, but never won at distance in the past (did run Politeness to 1.5L over 1100m though). Tough with weight at distance.
3. Grane: This horse is just going from strength to strength this prep. Up 5.5kg today makes it a hard task from barrier 15 where he will go back to last.
4. Office Bearer: Always been a good horse over these distances. Goes well at this track actually with the last win being here. Good 3rd first up at Flemington and will have trained on in the month between runs. 2nd up record is very solid. Barrier only issue.
5. Reldas: Consistent as the day is long. Back to 1000m certainly not his best distance for mine with 1200m exactly what he is wanting, but he does look suited well enough here with only a medium tempo mapped. Back to a dry track the key for this gun horse.
6. Java: Three runs this prep all been very disappointing. Hard to see a turn around in the form. Barrier 14 going to make it extra hard to find a good spot… may be ridden colder?
7. Pago Rock: Always runs well but never looks the winner. Barrier 4 should get a good spot, but i’ve had enough of him this prep.
8. Vatican: Looked the winner at times last start but not good enough. Not going well enough for mine to back here.
9. Wild Rain: Frustrating horse. Looked the winner her last two starts and let one beat her both times. Obviously going well enough and looks nicely weighted, but has to improve to win. Back to 1000m ideal.
10. Danger Close: This is his home away from home with 3 wins from 5 starts at course. 1000m is his distance, but he certainly has to improve onwards from the first up run. 2nd up record is strong.
11. Tuscan Sling: Ignore last start on the heavy track and rate on previous runs which were good enough to measure up here. Barrier an issue for mine as this is a horse that wants clear running.
12. Pretty Possum: Doesn’t win out of turn. Every chance the last two starts and just not good enough. Well weighted on two back run, but last start was too poor to rate here.
14. Audino: Well beaten all runs this prep. Hard to see a win here.
15. Down The Hatch: Close but just missed last start at Moonee Valley. Much harder here and never measured up to this.
Comments: I can’t find a load of advantages in this betting market. There looks to be five clear winning chances with two or three others that could win ‘on their day’.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Reldas E/W
