1. Wrotham Heath: Two ignore runs to open the prep. Expect to be much closer to the speed today from barrier 3. Can run well enough at this distance but is probably looking for further.
2. Alrouz: Goes okay first up. Never won from 6 attempts at track a worry. Has won 4 times at similar distances though. Last win over 2000m. Will be on speed… need to be fit to beat all these.
3. Lilly Dazzler: Very nice run 2nd to Zarzali two back at Flemington. Last start run when missed the start never a chance in much harder race. Barrier 1 today, if she jumps well she will be in a very good spot and have every possible chance. Form is very solid.
4. Low Places: Sent down from Sydney in winning form. Went through the grades slowly. Back down to 1500m from 2200m last start a massive concern for me here.
5. Elmantosh: Average form race 3 back for his best run this prep. Failed last two. Clear take on for me here.
6. Pythagorean: Hard horse to figure out, just like the name. Been a long time between a good run and i can’t see one coming out here on recent form. Needs the speed on.
7. Northern Lyric: Last two runs no excuses just been well below his very best. Yard have changed a few things up but would still need to improve to measure up on recent form.
8. Tucanchoo: Out the back last two starts, but has the ability on previous runs to sit midfield from this barrier. Good win two back at course and similar distance while last start wasn’t as impressive. Obviously been 8 months between runs so we go off this horse being first up after a very long spell.
9. Rich River: Never won first up just yet but this bloke always runs well. Has won at course and also at this distance but never in this class. Hard to see this first up in this class over this distance? Started favourite 6 of his last 8 starts and won just 1!
10. Bascule: Very disappointing run last start at MV. Similar the run at Rosehill previous to that off an okay run first up. Very best is good enough but hard to have confidence off last two runs.
11. Distant Rock: Over-raced heavily last start and was never a chance. Out the back jumping poorly previous run. Last win was in BM-64 grade and that was last prep. Has to improve on previous form but has ability.
12. Got You Double: BM-70 4.5L 3rd at Dunkeld last start. Hard to see on that form but did run well in 3YO grade previous prep.
13. Kincaple Chief: Hayes runner. Hasn’t won in over a year. Three runs to prep haven’t been good enough to suggest a win here, but better barrier could find a length.. would still need improvement.
Comments: Not a race i’ve overly keen to get involved in at the prices. Lilly Dazzler worth another shot.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Lilly Dazzler to win.
