1. She’s Clean: Blocked for runs last start at course and similar distance when Solicit just ran away with it from out the front. Similar class and same barrier today, gets the top weight. Has to improve on previous three runs today, may ride a bit closer… but it is a smaller field so shouldn’t be left too far back.
2. Metaphorical: Strong enough run first up at Ballarat when 4th to Weinholt from the back. Barrier 5 today and up to 1400m, should sit midfield and be very hard to hold out if she produces her very best.
3. Sense and Reason: Two runs this prep and well beaten in both. Up to 1400m should suit, but only run at this grade in the past she wasn’t good enough to place.
4. Danestroem: This girl always gives you a run for her money and Beriman has a good relationship with her. Goes well at this track and also at this distance. Looks the leader on paper so wide barrier no idea. May just stack them up and try and outsprint them with the 54kg from the barrier.
5. Matilija: Disappointing last start at course and similar distance. Best run this prep was clearly on the heavy at Flemington. Previous three runs to that were solid enough but i believe she has to improve again to win this.
7. Northroza: Proved to be a very classy mare two preps back. Last prep also showed that. First up run was just a plain ignore and she bounced back in lesser class last start with a very easy win. 54kg, looks well enough weighted third up to improve again from the barrier and will have every possible chance.
8. Anaphora: Two runs this prep for a 2nd and 3rd in lesser class. Best run last prep was over 1600m so not up to that distance just yet and it was off a very fast tempo which i can’t see here today.
9. Baby Don’t Cry: Good win last start at Benalla, but this is obviously a MUCH harder race. Never won at this distance from 3 attempts in the past. Hard to see at the weights.
11. Annesbrook: Couldn’t win a FM-58 last start.
Comments: A few under the correct odds in this race for me. I have Matilija and Anaphora as both double figure chances, while Danestroem is rated much shorter than the $10 being bet here. I also have Northroza at the compressed weights scale as a shorter price than the $4.2. Looks to be four key chances on the form, and i’m very happy to bet with the value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Northroza and Danestroem to win. Saver betting Metaphorical.
Staking: Win Bets – Northroza 1.2 units @ $4.20. Danestroem 0.5 units @ $10. Metaphorical 0.4 units @ $5.5.
