1. Jacquinot Bay: Didn’t lead last start (big mistake) at course and similar distance. Battled on bravely for 4th just missing a place. Outside barrier, but 3kg claiming jockey and there surely has to be a lead at all costs instruction today. Going more than good enough to win this.
2. Evangelist: Hard horse to catch. Probably would have been winning last start if he actually got a run, blocked the whole straight at Kilmore. Very good run the previous run at Sale. Horse is ticking over nicely. Speed will be on and they will find him a nice spot. Big chance.
3. Black Jag: First up run found nothing on a heavy track. Goes well enough 2nd up and goes well at this distance, but his very best comes over the 2500m and above. Probably needs the run.
4. Eximus: Back in form finally last start at Kilmore but couldn’t run down Rhythm to Spare which is a concern for mine. Has to improve on that run but does map well enough and has won at track in the past.
5. Oregon Spirit: Ran home quite well last start at Wodonga behind Master Reset with top weight. Down 4.5kg here, barrier 5 again and Meech is riding very well currently. Win wouldn’t shock.
6. Majestic Duke: Led last start and never really looked the winner from 200m out. Stuck on strongly, but clearly needs another run or two this prep to find his best. Best runs were on softer tracks i’d say also last prep.
8. Tonopah: Blocked for runs last start but that didn’t matter for this very classy runner, winning easy at Donald last start smashing the field in a nicely run time. Down 2kg here to 54, looks to be well in and barrier is perfect to get a little further forward.
9. Vizhaka: Very nice win two back at Bairnsdale from on speed, but failed last start at Sale. Two back run is good enough to win this but there was a bias that day to consider.
10. Electric Fusion: Hard horse to catch. Last three runs have been horrible. Four back was a nice run on speed. Won’t have an easy time the issue.
11. Scelto: Going horrible based on last two runs all things considered. A long time between runs may do the trick, but has never won at this track from 7 attempts or distance from 11 attempts and 12 attempts in this class.
Comments: I came into this race expecting to be all over my old mate Jac Bay, but this is a very wide open race with four main chances on form in Jac Bay, Evangelist, Tonopah and Oregon Spirit. Jac Bay and Tonopah are both under the correct odds, they are both good, but i couldn’t be playing on them at the odds. Evangelist and Oregon Spirit offer the value in the race and that’s the way i would play if i was betting here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Evangelist @ $9 and Oregon Spirit @ $14.
