1. Antelucan: Looked a very good horse winning first ever run as a 2YO down the Flemington straight. Failed in the prelude then failed as favourite well beaten 3rd to Takedown (who hasn’t backed up that form this prep) 3.5L 3rd. First up run was wide during the race but was very poor. Very hard to rate, but you know it’s best runs are good enough.
2. Mihalic: Another who won a race down the Flemington straight as a 2YO then shown very little since. Three runs this prep well beaten each time. Has to improve.
3. Tiz My View: Didn’t beat much first up to win the BM-64. Not a bad run actually two back at MV but fell out of it fast last start at Flemington with the tempo on out front. Gut buster run and 11 days between runs. Struggle to suggest.
4. Queen of Wands: One win to date. It was a good win at course and similar distance, but she hasn’t produced a winning run since or been close in this class. Nice enough run last start but will she get a similar tempo today? Poor barrier.
5. Indarra: Maiden. Very good run from midfield last start at Flemington for 2nd behind Don’t Doubt Mamma. Very strong form lines and looks well suited and maps well. Big hope.
6. Irada: Finished off well enough but certainly didn’t have the required grind last start at Flemington. Won’t be as hot a speed today which should suit, but barrier 1 for a horse that goes back.. need clear running to find her best. I’m off her today.
7. Northern Model: Well beaten by 2 lengths last start into 4th, but it was still a nice run wide out on the track behind some good types when back markers were simply not favoured on the day. Was only asked for an effort the final 200m when got clear really and was very hard to handle. Will be suited by the long straight. Best final 200m in 12.07, beating Serene Majesty’s 12.14! They opened the horse up $14s and the big betters went BLONK, straight into single figures. Still looks a very good price.
8. Miss Wilson: Does a lot wrong in runs. Well beaten last two starts and back down to 1400m to try repeat the first up run. Much harder this. Struggle to suggest with all her issues.
9. Russian Empress: Didn’t beat a great deal last start at Cranbourne. Certainly an improvement on the two back run at Pakenham. Obviously has ability but that was a leaders track also.
10. Navita: Maiden winner two back then failed in harder class. Struggle to suggest.
11. Orvassa: Maiden winner in an average race. Not the worst run last start but still this is MUCH harder.
12. Micondesa: Beat Indarra in a maiden two runs back at Ballarat. Have to suggest she has franked the form on that run. Wide gate an issue, will be going forward from the gate so needs to jump well.
13. Change Sister: Nice enough start to finish win last start. Didn’t have to beat much and got a nice enough time out the front times wise. Has to improve. Barrier disadvantage.
14. La Fleurette: Kilmore maiden winner. Very average form lines. Others preferred.
Comments: I’m convinced on the last start run that if Northern Model can position slightly further forward than… well… last… from the inside barrier.. that the horse is a massive price compared to rated price. This horses sectionals are hard to ignore from last start. Expecting the speed to be set with all the maiden winners coming over from out wide battling for a spot.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Northern Model E/W
