Good afternoon punters. Very keen on one bet at Sandown on Wednesday 7 June 2017 and very happy to share the bet. We put it up on twitter with the price continuing to be plunged with $5.50/$2.10 after being $6.50 last night and opening $9 on Monday. We have it rated much shorter and would bet as low as $3.60. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Sandown Race 4 – 2100m – Clanbrooke Racing Handicap
1. Azurite: OTI horse that runs well without winning. Several seconds and thirds last prep on the record. First up only fair for 4th and up to 2100m needs further to find his very best.
2. Granddukeoftuscany: Massive eye-catching run first up at Flemington in harder company when went back from a wide barrier and flashed home late for 5th in a race won by on-speed runners. Up to 2100m and from a very positive barrier 6 is expected to lead them around from on speed and be very hard to run past off a strong tempo being set. Can take a sit if something else wants to take up the running. Huge overs with Mertens onboard. A little sting out no negative – won by 19L over in Ireland on a Soft 5.
3. Ferro Nero: Five runs this prep and only one run three back was worthy of considering. In this grade and over a similar distance ran nicely enough in what looked a much lower grade race behind Lord Fandango. Has to improve but obviously can place.
4. Kellstorm: Very well bred half-sister to Order of St George. Won well first up over 1400m and was only fair last start on a dryer track at Flemington. Much better suited up to 2100m but won’t get it as wet as you would think he needs with wins in the past being on heavy tracks.
5. Demons Run: Adelaide ‘import’ having run well in ‘higher’ company the past three runs in Open grade. Finished behind Cheryls Horse on two of those occasions and that form line hasn’t measured up to be top class based on the weekend run. Has to improve i’d imagine but will be soft enough to be the right ground rating.
6. Duchess Kate: Had every chance last start at Cranbourne 5th up into prep. Previous prep over 2100m ran 2.1L 4th in 3F-GP3 class over 2100m in NZ, so has always had the form lines suggesting she could measure up, but has failed to do so this prep. Can’t see it here.
7. Sayed: French import for the Waller stable. Maiden winner over 1600m in France on heavy. Won a BM-65 grade race at Newcastle first up and then 3-wide last start at Wyong ran 2nd in a CL-2 with just 7 runners. Huge step up in class here and i’m shocked to see him the favourite. Take on.
8. Monogram: Godolphin runner that has failed to show anything yet this prep. Last prep won over 1400m to finish off the prep and took a while to get into form. Has won in similar grade over this similar distance in past preps. Needs to return to form to win this.
9. Super Mover: Not the worst runner 6th behind Woolsthorpe Store at Casterton in a fast run race. Previous runs been beaten 4L or more the past 8 runs. Has to improve obviously and looks tough here.
10. Arrow in the Sand: New Zealand import that hasn’t won in 13 runs this prep. Takes a step back from open grade over there to BM-70 grade and first up at course over 1800m had every chance. Hard to suggest.
11. High Lago: Weir runner. Nice enough run 3rd at Cranbourne last start when a drifter in the market. Step up in grade and tougher than previous starts. Hard to suggest more than a place.
12. Dangle Lad: Sandown BM-84 winner last start beating Guangzhou who has gone on and won since back in 3YO grade. Always there or there abouts on recent form and has to be respected again.
Comments: One clear standout runner for me on the day in Granddukeoftuscany. Was a huge blackbooker on the strong trial last start at Flemington when snagged back and just kept on finding to the line in a race won by on speeders. Matched it with Galic Chieftain down the straight and beat him home which is great form heading into this. Mertens on is a positive change and barrier 6 is perfect. Has the ability to lead them around, or, take a sit just off the speed and drill them in the straight. Rated $2.50.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Granddukeoftsucany – 3 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.10
