Welcome to The Profits preview for Sandown on 30 December 2017. The rail remains in the true for the day and i’m expecting with the warm weather around for the track to be suiting those closer to the speed in the faster run races. Very confident with the best bet and confident to be betting into a few other races. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 5 – Sovereign Duke – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.40
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 2 – Red Choux’s – 2.5 units Each-Way $4.60/$2.00
Best Each-Way
Sandown Race 6 – Thelburg – 1 unit Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.15
Value Bet
Sandown Race 9 – Bon Rocket – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.60
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1,5,7,11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 11, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 10, 14, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Plate 2YOs
1. Fake: Ran surprisingly well last start coming off a maiden win at Gosford when 3rd at Caulfield. Not convinced the race was overly strong but data says otherwise!
2. Facts or Fiction: Blinkers on coming off a first up 4th at Morphetville. Not on that first up run.
3. Al Dorama: Trialed okay enough on lead in but clearly have to be top grade. Stable has been flying lately.
4. Templar: No public trials. Betting will give indications. Bred for further.
5. Graceful Storm: Maiden winner but times were average at best. Needs to improve significantly.
8. Love Lucille: Well backed Hayes runner that comes in off a nice trial win. Breeding suggests sprints are key for this horse.
9. Threeood: Been going well at home by all reports. No official trials. Strong yard. Good barrier. Has been backed.
Comments: This is a tough day to start the day. I’m thinking I want to be betting around Fake here at the price. Al Dorama has to be respected so does Love Lucille.. but at the value i’d be backing Threeood.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Threeood E/W
Sandown Race 2 – 1800m – Ladbrokes Multimaker Handicap – BM-64
1. Red Choux’s: Given a very easy spin around last start by Allen who didn’t push the horses button until far too late. Changes to Chop King Junior who gets the horse in well at the weights back to this grade. Only query is the gate for position in running.
2. Shauquin: Been going from strength to strength this prep up in grades and ran very well 3rd when fairly beaten at Moonee Valley last start by Tenappy Ladies. Back in grade here and has to be considered a top chance.
3. Dangle Lad: Failed to get close the last four starts in easier grades of races. Finding it hard to suggest here.
4. Domesticated: Beaten 3L last start at course distance and in similar grade by an ok type in Adatto. Previous start beaten by Hell on Earth. Going well enough and ok at weights.
5. Onemore Emotion: Waller stable runner who won a maiden two back and was well beaten last start in this grade over shorter. Has to improve.
6. Star Major: Only fair last start behind Parallel World and a few others at Pakenham. Has to improve also.
7. Lady Seabring: CL1 winner last start at Moonee Valley beating an okay bunch coming off an average first up run.
8. So Able: 7 runs this prep for 2 wins in maiden and 0-58 grade. Last two starts beaten a long way.
9. Savvy Belle: CL1 winner four back. Last start beaten 2L from back at Geelong. More suitable track for a backmarker like hers.
11. Barney Allen: Geelong 2nd last start. Previous run here beaten 6th. Looks an okay type and well in at weights.
12. Mutarakem: Down from Sydney. Two runs this prep in what i’d suggest are easier races… but Waller has the ability with these types to get them going well here.
13. Misty Rock: Geelong maiden winner on lead in. Big step up again.
Comments: Red Choux’s is the clear standout here on form and class. I’m super keen that as long as the horse gets a run that isn’t 3-wide the trip, he will be winning.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Red Choux’s – 2.5 units Each-Way $4.60/$2.00
Sandown Race 3 – 1400m – BM-84
1. Zasorceress: First up after 230 days off. Best over further than this. Surprise if won.
2. Single Note: Two runs this prep and has been beaten 4L+. Goes well at track and up in distance preferred.
3. Abohar: Concussion plates (front) first time a huge query. 9 starts 0 places on a good track in the past. Good neough on previous starts.
4. Astara: Failed in the Goulburn cup last start. Previous two runs failed also in harder. Would be a shock win here.
5. Moonlover: Gone from strength to strength this prep and just missed two back before fairly beaten 2L by Widgee Turf last start and that form has been franked since. Weighted to win.
6. Life on the Wire: Three wins in a row and last start smashed a decent field. This isn’t a big step up in class either and gets in very well at weights and maps well.
8. Ashlee Marie: First up off a 2400m prep. Goes ok first up and at distance but best is over further and on wetter.
9. Birds of Tokyo: Hard horse to catch. Failed to fire first up and best last prep was shown over further. 14 runs 0 wins on good.
Comments: All About Rhythm and Single Note look to be improvers here while Life On The Wire and Moonlover look to be the horses to beat. On mapping, i’m big on Life On The Wire to continue its winning way.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Life On The Wire. Save Moonlover.
Sandown Race 4 – 1300m – Ladbrokes Cash in Handicap – BM-70 Fillies
2. Twitchy Frank: Two wins in a row Weir runner. 1.25L win at Moonee Valley when found a load in the tank from the front. Maps well.
3. Bellegano: Finished off last prep with a very good 2YO Handicap win. First up got back and ran on well but was clearly not ready. Had 3 weeks between runs.
4. Mawzoona: Snowden runner with two wins down here in a row. Step up in grade big time here but well suited.
5. She’s Our Gift: Ran ok last start but no match for Bel Sonic and a few others. Has to improve.
6. Tan Tat Flame: Four runs this prep. Won well first up in maiden grade and has placed in all three runs since. Respect enough can run well.
7. Light Romance: Maiden winner first up and two strong placings since. Back to dryer finally.
8. Little Gypsy: Wodonga winner first up before fairly beaten behind Bella Martini. Has to improve.
9. Emaan: Three runs this prep. Beaten by Tizco Wicked two back which isn’t a great sign and fairly last start at MV. Not top quality.
10. Purely Royal: Beaten 6L last start at Mornington and 3L the run prior in easier.
11. Zelsignoret: Weir runner. Two runs this prep beaten 4L and 4.3L. Wasn’t a bad run last start though and can run well here.
12. Purrhaps: Nice win two back in maiden grade and was poor last start in easier. Needs to lift.
13. Living Doll: Colac winner last start. Big jump required.
Comments: Wide open race. Two top picks on last runs and barriers are Memory Bank and Twitchy Frank. Respect a few others in the race but these two clearly look on top.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Twitchy Frank E/W
Sandown Race 5 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap – Bm-70
1. Sovereign Duke: Smashed them first up at Swan Hill over 975m by 5L. Last start ran very well at Caulfield in a hot time when stuck on solidly. Looks well in back in class here.
3. Punt Club: Two runs this prep and hasn’t been able to place. Best runs are over these sprint distances but not sure this class.
4. Kakanui: Bm-70 winner over 955m last start when covered ground. Was a good win. Has to improve but go well here.
5. El Sicario: Moonee Valley 3rd first up 4-wide no cover. Has to be considered off that run.
6. Sang Choi Bao: Took 6 runs to break through this prep but certainly has been going the right way until then.
7. Artie Fred: BM-64 winner at Moe last start. Big jump in class again.
8. Charlie Garcon: Won well four back at Cranbourne. Had a spell since and first up here. Has some ability.
9. Royal Navy: First up today after 105 days off. Trial 8th on lead in run. Best over further.
10. The Dynamo: A long time between wins. Last two runs were horrible.
12. Dam Ready: Come back very well this prep with a good 2nd to begin the prep behind a nice type in Toorak Cowboy. Stays at that grade here and looks very well in. Barrier only issue.
13. Snappy Esprit: Two runs this prep beaten fairly on both accounts. Take on here.
14. Believing: Sandown 5th first up this prep. Was a nice run. Can improve here.
15. He’s the Sheriff: Two runs this prep. Failed to fire in this grade.
16. Casque: Big ask here in this grade. On best last prep can run ok but need to improve.
Comments: Super keen on Sovereign Duke here based on the last two starts. Main danger looks to be Dam Ready and El Sicario.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Sovereign Duke – 3.5 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.40
Sandown Race 6 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Info Hub Handicap
1. Burning Front: Six runs this prep and hasn’t been able to get a win. Fairly beaten the past few starts and a return to Sandown isn’t the most ideal situation with 5 runs 0 wins here.
3. Lite’n in my Veins: Two runs this prep for the new stable and was well beaten last start, but the first up run was nice. Craig Williams jumps onboard. Hasn’t placed in the past 10 runs.
4. The Chairman: Measured up to a level higher than expected last prep, but best has been seen over much further than this.
5. Zebrinz: First up today. Comes into this off some some very good runs that would measure up here. Never placed first up in the past.
6. Airalign: Goes well early in preps and comes into this first up today. Measured up high levels last prep. Blinkers off.
7. Ozi Choice: Smashed the clock last start at Caulfield and stays low down in the weights. Hard to beat here.
8. Dan Zephyr: Five runs this prep. Was a nice run from on speed last start but felt the pinch. Will be hard to rally back and win here.
9. Got The Goss: Won two in a row and then a only fair run last start at Caulfield. Can improve up to this distance I suspect.
11. Thelburg: Three runs this prep and last start was huge improvement shown. From a much better barrier today I expect he can turn the tables on Ozi Choice and a few others.
Comments: Keen on Thelburg here to get the job done from barrier 2 with 51kg. The longer straight is ideal for the horse.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Thelburg – 1 unit Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.15
Sandown Race 7 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Up For The Challenge Handicap
1. Guizot: Presented at complete top in the yard last start at Caulfield and only covering extra ground stopped the horse from winning. Certainly a query over 7 runs for 0 wins on a Good track.. but horse goes well back to Sandown and back to 1600m looks to do the trick. Big chance.
2. Orient Line: Been up a long time and hasn’t won in 7 starts. Not a bad run last start but has to continue improving.
3. The New Boy: Four runs this prep as a 9YO. Not a bad ruin last start at Bendigo but clearly has to improve again.
4. Lucky Paddy: Hasn’t won in the past 10 starts and last two starts hasn’t shown me enough to suggest a win.
6. Ancient History: Godolphin runner that is certainly below the mark compared to their best runners. Needs to find another level here.
7. Lamborghini: Flew home last start at Moonee Valley at huge odds when underrated. Looks well suited here and with the 5kg claim is well in here.
11. Aurum Spirit: Just 1 placing in the last 10 starts, this is a horse struggling to show the required ability.
13. What a Shock: Two starts this prep. First up failed but last start ran very well 3rd at Geelong. Can improve based on best runs last prep.
14. Light ‘n’ Fire: BM-64 winner two back and ran well in BM-70 last start in Adelaide. Has to improve.
Comments: Guizot the clear top pick here but a query on the horses position in run. Lucky Paddy and Ancient History are potential large improvers while Elite Tiger and Tenappy Ladies are both near top for this prep.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Strategy: Guizot E/W
Sandown Race 8 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotics Handicap – BM-70 Fillies
1. Petite’s Reward: Failed to fire the past five runs. Did win 6 back but shown nothing since. Pass.
3. Club Tropicana: Won two and three back before a disappointing run at Caulfield when was vetted pre-race and got too far back. Clearly at top this prep and step back in grade here suited.
4. Doc’s Hero: First up coming off a three run campaign with 2 wins and a second. Looks well suited.
5. Gwenneth: Nice type who has been up since early October with just 3 runs. Well back in grade here.
6. Fica Gal: Won nicely first up in easier company. Step up but looks well.
7. If Not Now When: Get back run on type ridden upside down last start 3-wide no cover. Can improve.
8. Fraulein Rustie: Ran well first up in similar grade 2nd behind World of Hope. Best in past can figure to this grade but not further.
9. Miss Vesper: First up runner and won 2/2 first up in the past. Claimer onboard and likes the sprint distances.
10. Deconi: Been going a few runs this prep but 1 win from last 10 runs which was Bm-58. Big ask.
11. Don’t Play Around: Laming stable. Down from the Gold Coast, first up run was sound when wide no cover. Can improve.
12. Stream Ahead: BM-58 winner first up. Massive jump in class.
13. For a Song: Good 2nd last start in similar grade at Moonee Valley. Doesn’t win often but goes well consistently.
14. Separee: Trialled fairly on lead in. Last win was BM-64.
16. La Renarde: Failed to fire first up. Big ask here but 5th last prep in 3YOF Handicap suggests can run well.
Comments: Tough race but a few standouts here. Have to stick with Club Tropicana while Gwenneth looks a main danger.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 11, 16
Strategy: Club Tropicana E/W
Sandown Race 9 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Handicap – BM-70
1. Reincarnate: Hasn’t won in the past 12 months/10 runs. Last two starts very poor but previous run was really good. Not sure what to make of the horse. If well in the yard, respect.
2. Taddei Tondo: Got his one win two back and hard to see him repeating that effort here. 1 win 0 places past 10 runs. Inconsistent type.
3. Tango Rock: Two runs this prep. First up failed to fire over shorter while last start covered a load of ground running 7th. Improve here.
4. Baron Archer: Failed heavily first up at Geelong. Previous preps form not great.
5. Bon Rocket: Flew home last start and just missed at course and similar distance in this grade last start. Stays at weights and maps similar from 8.
7. Scapa Cove: 8.2L defeat first up. Hasn’t won in over 10 starts. Need to improve loads. Never won 2nd up.
8. Chippenham: Improved run last start just missing at Tatura in this grade. This is still a step up though. Respect enough.
9. Coram: Another who hasn’t won in 10+ runs. Failed to get close to a place first two runs.
10. Downhearted: Price runner that is consistent. Just missed last start at Tatura and will improve 2nd up.
13. Lannister: Another non-winner. 381 days between runs hard to suggest in this grade. Probably needs further.
14. Mr Optimistic: Flew home last start and still pulled up with Thumps. Looks a type to improve significantly.
15. Simply Splashing: Bool Cl1 winner last start. Huge ask up to this grade.
17. Sohool: Nice type for Weir. Run down late at Sandown last start. Clear chance here.
Comments: Bon Rocket gets the perfect run throughout here from a better barrier and looks the ideal horse to beat. Big value.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 10, 14, 17
Strategy: Bon Rocket – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.60
