Welcome to The Profits preview from Sandown on 27 May 2017. Racing heads to Sandown lakeside today and there are four runners on the card that standout for us. Hoping to be able to land a few good bets on the card and get something home at odds. Certainly keen on our video previews on these runners. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 8 – Zamzam – 2 units Each-Way @ $4.6/$1.85
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 1 – She’s Our Gift – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$6.50
Best Value Bets
Sandown Race 2 – The Card Players – 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$4.10
Sandown Race 9 – Cannyescent – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.88
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 14, 15, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that like to hear a bit about the insights into each race, here are our thoughts via Video to go with the full previews below!
Sandown Race 1 – 1200m – Clanbrooke Racing Handicap
1. Star Search: Talented Hawkes stable runner that won in impressive style and time first up at Ballarat nosing out Cliff’s Edge. Respect this get back run on type.
2. The Consigliere: Geelong Synthetic maiden winner. Time wasn’t anything to write home about but he did sit off the pace and still close them down nicely the final 200m. Maps awkwardly. Trainer believes needs further for very best.
3. Sedition: One start last prep for a third behind Coruscate. Trialled heading into this prep on heavy but didn’t really tell us much. Has been gelded.
4. She’s Our Gift: Won two from three recently and was placed 4th at the Bool in the Gold Strike. Obviously brings ability into this race, but best runs have been on softer tracks.
5. All Too Powerful: First starter for the O’Brien yard. Had a soft showing last week at Werribee as a lead in.
6. Cliff’s Edge: Weir runner that wasn’t supported last start when got to the lead with 400m to go and was run down late by Star Search. Looks to be a type that will improve up to 1200m from a good barrier.
8. Freedom’s Light: Trial leading in on heavy 8 saw him well defeated in a light trial. Doesn’t give us much of a hint and the horse hasn’t been backed.
10. Lone Eagle: Price and Oliver combine. Not the greatest breeding for this horse but it has had two solid trials leading in and looked good enough to represent the stable well. Has been backed also.
12. Josephine Sea: Winner at Sale last start on a Soft 5 in only fair times. This is a step up in class but this doesn’t look beyond her ability. Respect at odds.
Comments: Star Search, Cliff’s Edge, Josephine Sea, Sedition and quite a few others all make solid cases for backing today, but there is one runner forgotten in the market which has the runs on the boards in She’s Our Gift. Last start at Donald she sat 3/4/5 wide the first 400m before attacking the leaders, taking over and putting a gap on them with 600m to go and kept on going to the line. This will be a race that requires a horse with a load of stamina and she is rock hard solid ready for this test.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: She’s Our Gift – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$6.50
Sandown Race 2 – 1200m – Elaren Security Services Handicap
1. Staviva: Fairly beaten last start at Ballarat behind Chamois Road and Star Stealer but did run a solid race. D Oliver takes the ride today and maps to get a long way back from the inside barrier. Expect a change of tactics from Oli to try and pinch a few extra slots.
2. Sullivan Bay: Hard horse to catch and even harder to catch in Victoria. Won three back at Mornington before two respectable runs over in Adelaide in harder company. Back in distance and in class, she has the runs on the board from the past to more than be capable of winning this. 3kg claimer on also.
3. Kalashani Lad: First up today. Last start won at course over 1400m. Doesn’t have the best distance or first up record is a slight issue but did win with 59kg last prep over 1200m. Poor barrier.
6. Nikitas: Form read like crap going into last start but the stable knew he was going well and backed him accordingly. Back to dryer track certainly an issue.
8. Sovereign Duke: Bm-64 winner last start at Swan Hill with top weight in impressive style. Certainly didn’t beat much on the day but was well placed. Up two grades here certainly a tough ask but I have to believe this horse is going well enough to be a factor.
9. Star Stealer: A bit of a frustrating horse to follow after placing three of his past four starts in similar to harder company. Has been putting the writing on the wall but hasn’t been able to grab a win. First time at the track and will certainly appreciate the longer straight. Ridden for luck from midfield I imagine.
10. The Card Players: 1400m back to 1200m today after beating Stormsabrewing who has come out and won in city grade since. Was wide the whole race with no cover for the final 700m and sustained a wide long run through the line. Thompson keeps the ride and barrier 5 looks ideal to get a better run and spot today in running. Looked like he would appreciate the step back to 1200m today also.
11. Smakatus: Last win was here at course and distance beating some very good types in Crystal Dreamer and Orient Line. Failed to really show anything since that day with thirds the best runs on the record. Failed on lead in run.
12. Heza Dude: Geelong winner three back when well fancied on the day. Last two starts in harder company just found a few too good. Has to go onwards and upwards with it today to have a chance.
13. Galaxy Raider: Inconsistent type that is very hard to catch. On his day, he is a pure beast, but he just hasn’t shown that to us consistently enough in the past. Goes well over 1200m but was stepped up to 2000m last prep. Needs a big run from well back in running.
15. Rillito: Lightly raced Godolphin runner who has had 4 trials and 1 run this prep. Only run was in this grade on Heavy when beaten 0.8L at Warwick Farm. Previous preps runs suggest the horse has ability but this is certainly the testing material. Maps a long way back.
18. Uncanny Effort: Last win was on synthetic over 1400m two preps back. Last prep failed to fire in either run on the track. Others preferred.
Comments: Wide open affair on paper, but there is a horse stepping back in distance off an eye-catching run that looks to get a spot off the rails closer than midfield that is set to run a blinder in ‘The Card Players’. The last start run showed the required stamina to score again at this track and the final 100m suggested this horse would be best back to 1200/1300m with an easier run on paper today with strong tempo out front. Well suited here and I just home Benny gives a similar ride and isn’t shy to go wide around the bend into the straight earlier than most wood to build this horses momentum.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: The Card Players – 1 unit Each-Way @ $11/$4.10
Sandown Race 3 – 3400m – The Australian Steeplechase
1. Wells: First run over the jumps this prep and is getting on in age. 14 runs for 0 wins on a good track in the past is a bit of an issue. Best in the past also over further than this. Top weight tough ask.
2. Zed Em: Won the Brierly holding off a fast finishing Now and Zen and King of the Forest. Down in weight slightly here but gets another track condition that will suit with a Good track here. Going better than ever this prep and looks well suited again.
3. Now and Zen: Had his chances last jumps start but just couldn’t get past zed Em. Similar weights today and back to a dryer track shouldn’t be a negative. Good trial leading in.
4. Gold Medals: Has his chances in the Casterton Cup between runs but just not good enough beaten 0.1L over the 2000m. Short backup here really but clearly going well enough on that run to consider back to a dryer track over the jumps. Was disappointing in the Brierly.
5. Lucky Tonight: Strong first up win at Pakenham beating home Saddle the Stars and King of the Forest and ran a respectable 7th in the Grand Annual. Back in distance here looks much more suitable and is well in at the weights on ratings. Have to respect.
7. Marlo Man: ballarat Chase winner leading into this coming off a Picnic win at Healsville. Didn’t beat a lot but has ability.
Comments: Zed Em is the clear top pick again here. The value runner is Lucky Tonight.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Zed Em to win. Also back Lucky Tonight
Sandown Race 4 – 3400m – The Australian Hurdle
1. Arch Fire: Two runs back at Pakenham won well enough but the form out of that race just hasn’t worked out well. Went around in the Galleywood and just didn’t run very well at all when fancied on the day. Goes well enough on dryer.
2. Renew: Up 2kg from his run in the Galleywood. Had a trial and run between the Galleywood to keep him ticking over. Has great dry track form and looks well placed.
3. Urban Explorer: BM-64 grade winner over 2200m between runs. Previous start 3rd fairly beaten in the Galleywood behind Renew and Honey Steel’s Gold. Has to improve onwards and upwards but wouldn’t be a surprise to see a solid run here.
4. Zuhayr: Beaten a long way three runs back behind Zed Em at the Bool and had two runs since to keep him ticking over. Would need to grow another leg.
5. Honey Steel’s Gold: 4kg turn around today on Renew is a key factor here. Hasn’t had a run since, but is certainly deep into his prep and has been ticking over well back at home since. Back to a dryer track here will see him run even better.
6. Earthbound: First run this prep over the jumps after three runs on the lead in. Hasn’t been great at all and missed the bool. Fairly beaten by Honey Steel’s Gold last prep over the hurdles but does look well weighted if at his peak form based on the 0.85L 3rd in this last year.
7. John Monash: Hurdler imported for this today. Shown best over further than this in the past and knocked up in the Galleywood. Not one of mine.
9. Abebe: Maiden hurdle winner during the week so this is a throw at the stumps. Hard to suggest a win at all.
Comments: Renew is the obvious favourite today, but I just want to take him on here at the weights coming off that very flat run at Flemington over 3200m. Honey Steel’s Gold is weighted to win this today while Earthbound on it’s best runs in the past has the ability to best all of these runners today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Honey Steel’s Gold and Earthbound.
Sandown Race 5 – 2400m – Chandler Macleod Handicap
3. Araldo Junior: Old mate really just hasn’t shown up against this prep. He is a very hard horse to catch and while his best is good enough, it’s Russian Roulette when you will see it. I’m not convinced he could even win this though at his best.
4. Dubai Escapade: Weir runner. Unwanted last start over 2000m at Flemington and didn’t show alot. Previous runs had shown very little either. Looked okay in the Perth Cup over 2400m when 6th and looks to be wanting further.
5. Try Four: Won a Hurdle race at the Bool and looks to be here to keep ticking over this prep. Always goes well at these dsitances and this track, but this is a huge ask coming back from Hurdles on heavy. Best has always been on tracks with more sting out.
6. Goathland: Won like a start at the end of last prep by 4L over 2500m. First up over the 2000m sat too far back and allowed them the opportunity to get away with an easy time out front. Ran 5th on the day but has huge improvement to come.
8. Grand Dreamer: Winner two back on Heavy at Randwick. Last start on a Good 3 at Caulfield over 2000m didn’t look overly suited. Struggle to suggest at this distance.
9. Great Glen: Talented import. 2100m Hawksbury winner in a stakes race two back before failing at Scone in a BM-78. Has to improve onwards and upwards again but does have the ability on recent runs and does stay.
11. Transfer Allowance: Paraded well last start but just didn’t show us a lot. Hard to suggest the required improvement to beat all these.
12. Castle Hackett: Been racing in Adelaide and going okay without impressing. Doesn’t look a winner here on paper.
13. Epsom Hill: Been racing in much easier grades of races this prep. Previous prep couldn’t win at Caulfield and is 10 runs for 2 places 0 wins in the past 10. Hard to suggest.
14. Raindrops on Roses: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start on Synthetic at Pakenham. Throw at the stumps by stable.
Comments: With the scratchings in this race there is now no way to really oppose Goathland in the market. If the horse is right and fit it will be very hard to beat especially from on speed getting every opportunity. Great Glen looks the main threat.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Goathland to win.
Sandown Race 6 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Handicap
1. Killarney Kid: Eye-catching run first up with 57.5kg in Handicap class over 1600m. Stays at that distance today (thought they would go up to 2000) and has drawn ideally in 4 to get a better spot in running. 3kg claimer on again and a win wouldn’t be a total shock at all.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Huge run 2nd in the Golden Mile three back beaten 0.4L by Observational. Forgive run in the Easter Cup and then failed to fire the other way in the Wagga Cup. Blinkers on today an important addition along with Craig Williams on from a good barrier in 6. Maps ideally outside of the leader or 1 out 1 back. Freshened up and Stable are confident of a good run and this horse is 1 run for 1 win at the track. Well in and tempo will be on.
4. Hazzabeel: Four runs this prep and has failed to get within 2L of them. Failed the past three starts to show anything. Hard to suggest.
5. Onpicalo: Got the win last start at Caulfield off a very genuine tempo on the day. Goes up in weight and no claimer makes it a very tough task for mine. 4 starts 0 wins at the track against him.
6. Petrology: Going well at home and stable are confident of a nice run. 3.5kg turn around on Onpicalo today as well which is crucial. Barrier the big negative as I thought he could sit further forward than he did last start. Has the ability to come over the top late if they are flying along out front.
7. Dan Zephyr: Hard horse to catch on his day. To my eye he looked the winner with 50m to go making runs along the inside behind Onpicalo last start and was smashed for runs and ended up running 4th. Best weighted horse out of that race getting 3.5kg on the winner. Will get a perfect suck run from barrier 2 as well today and looks a big shot.
8. Inspector: Another step up in class for this sprinter. Poor last week off a hot tempo over 1400m and previous start was suited by an easier tempo overall when won beating Coldstone. Others preferred.
9. Coldstone: Best runs in the past have been over 1600-1800m distances so looks well suited coming into this today with that run under his belt. 52kg also has him nicely in at the weights and maps a treat for a sustained run just off the leaders today off what will be a suiting tough tempo.
10. Plein Ciel: Looked horrible in the yard first up at the Bool and ran accordingly when a big drifter on the day. Has been backed but I’d have no great confidence chucking him into a race of this quality second up. Has a lot to prove. Under the odds.
Comments: I want to take on the favourite in Plein Ciel here for many reasons – form, class, weight, distance, race pace. Jacquinot Bay gets the run of the race out front with Onpicalo and will be very hard to run down on this track. Dan Zephyr will get a suck run just off the speed and if last start is anything to go by, the horse is well suited. Coldstone is another that will just go and go and go to the line, but i’m just not convinced he has the raw ability to run last all these.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Jacquinot Bay and Dan Zephyr to win.
Sandown Race 7 – 1600m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap
1. Leotie: Looked horrible in the yard first up and improved last start but still showed signs of needing further work. Sat last and came wide to run very well 3rd. Down in weight and much better against that winner. Suited by the longer straight also.
2. Pedrena: Well up in weight after getting back and running on strongly to score last start at Caulfield. Has the ability to go on with it here.
3. Soho Ruby: Very strong form the past three starts with two good seconds leading into the Flemington run when wide no cover 10L back and was very impressive for 4th. Up to 1600m is a positive. Barrier only negative as will be getting back and running on. Comes into this off beating home Widgee Turf who is the favourite in the next race. Looks well suited here at Sandown down this long straight.
4. Lady Lee: Four runs this prep and yet to break through for a win. Ran well here three back over 1300m for 2nd but last two starts peaked on runs in final 200m when looming. Up to 1600m doesn’t seem to be the answer for mine up in this grade.
6. Mawhooba: Price runner. Two runs this prep and failed to fire on either occasion. Only measured up in much easier last prep. Hard to suggest.
7. Windbern: Three runs this prep. First up was average but ran very well 4th next start on heavy and ran very well from 2nd last at Sandown. This is harder, but she clearly is going well.
8. Iheartpoppy: Nice enough win on the Synthetic as a lead in. Beat some okay types but certainly wasn’t the greatest time. Has alot to prove.
9. Pop: Went around favourite last start in BM-64 grade and ran horrible. Hard to suggest. Horse looks cooked.
10. Cuban Belle: Maiden winner last start at Mornington. Wasn’t the greatest time and a blanket finish. Have to take on.
11. Octuplets: Kav runner with a 1.5kg claimer onboard. Has her chances last start but not good enough.
12. Astro Diva: Not terrible first up in Cl1 company but was well beaten. Big step up in grade and has to improve.
13. Silver Pathfinder: Up to 1600m looks ideal today. Very good maiden winner last prep and looks to be turning the corner form wise. That being said, poorly weighted here.
Comments: Four key chances and I really can’t split them too well in the market. I was expecting Soho Ruby to be slightly higher in the market and a good bet, but that hasn’t ended up the case. Pedrena is still the one to beat, but I just like Soho Ruby’s form lines a bit better for how the race will be run.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Soho Ruby to win.
Sandown Race 8 – 1400m – Samson Handicap
1. Zamzam: Trained on according to the stable. Smashed it in last start at Flemington for us at big odds from a perfectly mapped position off a great lead in run. Stays at 1400m which is ideal and can only improve and see out that final 200m a bit better. Well in at weights – only issue is barrier 9.
2. Royal Ace: Get back run on type that flashed home last start at the Bool to score a big priced win for us. Horses for this stable havn’t improved since the bool which is a worry for this horse up in distance and class. That being said, has won at course over 1300m in the past so does have ability.
3. Valliano: Didn’t show much last start at Caulfield when seemed to look well enough to run a big race. Stays at 1400m but this looks harder again today. Struggle to find him here.
4. Widgee Turf: Continues to be backed and continues to find a few too good. Racing pattern has him getting back and running on and that is expected agian here. Won’t be giving Zamzam 6 lengths on the turn this week but will still have to run past. Well in at weights but has a lot to prove for the price range being bet today.
5. What a Shock: Strong CL1 win as favourite at Ballarat last start when rolled forward and won well. Big step up in grade and won’t find an easy lead, most likely takes a sit.
6. Good Therapy: Pakenham synthetic winner two back before fairly beaten last start at Flemington. Has to improve.
8. Barbie’s Boy: Average enough run last start as lead in saving ground and running 4th. Others preferred still.
9. Fuse: 10th at Sale on lead in run. Maiden winner in past. Couldn’t see him placing.
10. Toffatin: Maiden winner last prep. Two lead in runs were terrible for 8th and 10th. Hard to have.
11. Fast and Furious: Last start winner at Cranbourne. Huge jump in class. Has to improve.
Comments: Not many chances overall in this race. With a better barrier draw Zamzam would be an absolute standout, so it’s going to be interesting what they do from the gate. I loved her run last start and i’m very happy to butter up at the each-way odds compared to that being bet for Widgee Turf. Suited by a long straight here ZamZam, clearly improved onwards which is important and could very well find a spot in behind the leaders with a good ride.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4
Strategy: Zamzam – 2 units Each-Way @ $4.6/$1.85
Sandown Race 9 – 1400m – Le Pine Funerals Plate
1. Cannyescent: Last start Sydney winner. Haye’s Stable very confident today and so am I. BM-92 winner as $3.50 favourite over 1350m up in Sydney and back in grade here today looks very well in at the weights. From barrier 7, will get back to midfield and have every chance here.
2. Freshwater Storm: First up today. Speed will be on which is what the horse wants, but certainly needs the run.
3. Thelburg: Two wins in at row and continues to run well. Led all the way last start at Caulfield over 1400m in hot time. Up in class and grade and weight. The testing material but clearly going well.
4. Broadway and First: Won 3 from last 5. Failed last start at Morphetville in similar grade of race after winning two back. Poor barrier doesn’t help.
6. Tykiato: Held up for runs last start at Caulfield when a respectable 4th behind Vital Importance and Grey Street. Back to 1400m probably better suited but this is the testing material grade wise again.
8. Noela’s Choice: Good run 6th in the Wangoom. Back to a dry surface today isn’t ideal but the horse does clearly have ability.
10. Bradman: Old mate will be going back and running on. Hasn’t shown me alot to be confident with recently.
11. Strike Force: Liked what he did two back at Flemington from on speed but he just couldn’t repeat it last start at Mornington. Had 63 days between runs and back to 1400m. Has to measure up again first up which hasn’t happened a lot in the past.
12. Stylish Miss: Bool winner which isn’t too positive a sign. Previous runs were only fair. Others preferred.
14. Data Point: Seeing was believing first up on Heavy 9 when winning very strongly in BM-70 grade. Step up in grade here it’s hard to ignore him.
15. Give Us a Go: Continues to run well without winning. Close 3rd behind Inspector and Coldstone last start and could go one better here. Nice type.
16. Global Gentl: German import. Has run in Bratislava and Budapest! Listed winner over 1400m. Needs the run.
18. Hunamosa: Nice enough win last start at Pakenham in BM-70 grade. Others preferred still.
19. Orient Line: Amazed to see this consistent swooper as emergency today. Looks a huge blowout chance if gets a run.
Comments: Very keen to be backing Cannyescent to repeat what was shown last start in Sydney at Each-Way odds. Thelburg looks the one to beat while Give Us a Go, Tykiato and several others look good chances.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 14, 15, 19
Strategy: Cannyescent – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.88
