Welcome to The Profits preview for Sandown on 2 December 2017. Racing this week heads back to Sandown where we have been racing non-stop for the past few weeks. The monsoon rains are on the way and there is every chance we start with a Heavy 10 track or we don’t go ahead. Either way, we are prepared to bet for the wet track and fingers crossed they do run. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 6 – Sprightly Lass – 8 units @ $2.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 7 – Jungle Edge – 5 units @ $2.90. Gun Case – 1.5 units @ $3.40.
Best Each-Way
Sandown Race 2 – Regina Del Nilo – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26.70/$7.00
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 9, 13, 15, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Hillside – Race 1 – 1000m – Cameron Thurley’s Bucks Day Plate
1. British Medium: Average trial for mine heading into this and no answers on wet.
2. Coronel: Failed only run last prep as favourite. Trialed well on lead in.
3. Juanito Uvez: Has done enough in private to respect.
4. La Chambie: Two trials on lead in. Hard to tell.
5. Logan River: Strong trial winner on Soft 5. Looks a nice type and has been backed.
6. Sanctimonious: Decent trial winner. Blinkers on and handled the Soft 5. Early market mover.
7. Seberate: Benalla trial 2nd on a Good 3.
8. Written By: Unseen action. Has been backed.
9. Classic Choice: Trial 3rd. Double figures.
Comments: Hard to bet here.
Confidence 10%
Startegy: Logan River the one to beat.
Sandown Hillside – Race 2 – 1300m – Chandler Macleod Handicap
1. Echo Jet: Two wins in a row on Good tracks including a win at this course last start. Unknown on track.
2. Poet’s Corner: Blinkers on. Two wins from three runs this prep but for mine is a big question on the Heavy and the trial on heavy didn’t give me much either.
3. Memory Bank: Solid win first up off 204 days and gets a 3kg claim here. Unknown on wet.
4. Bellegano: Ran 1L off Aloisia on a Heavy 10 in a trial last prep. Soft 5 winner. Looks well suited here and Maloney on a big tick for me.
5. Holy Freeze: Heavy 8 winner first up before a solid 3rd at Sandown last start from out back. Respect.
6. Kasi Farasi: Soft 7 winner first up at Pakenham and that was a track you had to be able to handle the wet. Can run well.
8. Flash Cash: Fairly beaten in BM-64 grade last start. Not convinced up to this.
10. Wanted Diva: Soft track win last prep on Soft 5. Can’t have on current form.
11. Regina Del Nilo: Heavy 10 track winner as a maiden at Swan Hill last prep. Meech onboard. Respect will handle track.
Comments: Bellegano, Holy Freeze and Kasi Farasi are the main contenders that will handle the heavy track while Big Moon the first start should on trials. The value in the race who is a heavy 10 winner already has to be Regina Del Nilo with Meech onboard at the low end of weights and I just have to bet. I’d have Bellegano top pick in the race from Holy Freeze.
Confidence 80%
Startegy: Regina Del Nilo – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26.70/$7.00
Sandown Hillside – Race 3 – 1600m – Clanbrooke Racing Handicap
1. Mrs Gardenia: Unknown on the heavy track here. Run 2nd on a Soft 5 in the past. Clearly top class form coming off a 0.3L defeat in G3 last start at course and similar distance and maps perfectly.
3. Toffee Nose: Soft 5 winner three back last prep. Never seen a heavy track and previous three runs on soft tracks were average.
4. Heavenly Descent: Handled a Heavy 8 three runs back at Geelong and just missed in easier grade. Not the best last two starts but will handle track.
5. La Fleurette: Goes ok on wetter tracks but best runs on firmer. Has placed in the past on Heavy. Comes out of a good 2nd in the Donald Cup that has to be respected.
6. Fudged: Soft 5 winner two back and never seen a heavy track. Two wins in a row and going well.
7. Angel Eight: Soft track winner in previous preps. Two runs this prep but fairly beaten on both occasions by others here.
Comments: Awkward race. La Fleurette ran well in the Donald Cup and has to be respected. Toffee Nose handling the track would go well here and so would Fudged. Mrs Gardenia is a complete unknown on the heavy but if the horse goes a metre in the ground it’s clearly the one to beat at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Startegy: Mrs Gardenia to win
Sandown Hillside – Race 4 – 1600m – Spicer Thoroughbreds Handicap
1. Storm Harbour: Two wins in a row. Failed on a Soft 5 first up an issue. Doubtful on wet.
2. Columbia: 3KG Claim helps. Two wins in past on wet including a Soft 6. Has to improve in this grade only query.
3. Roar: Failed both attempts on soft in the past a huge query. Has won two in a row.
4. Justice Glory: Failed last start at Sandown on a Soft 5. Unsure on wet and not good enough for mine on what happened last start.
5. Atone: Maiden winner. Didn’t show enough trialling on wet tracks.
6. Vinland: Strong G2 run 5th last start when looked really well in the yard. Stays at 1600m here and heavy track a query on last heavy run?
7. Civil Disobedience: Maiden winner last start. Handles soft ok but hasn’t won two attempts on it. big step up.
9. Grand Casino: 6 starts on Good for 0 wins and nothing on wetter. Only win wqas on Synthetic. Hard to suggest.
10. Many Rewards: Three runs this prep and no win yet. Handles soft.
11. Procedural: Maiden winner two back and not disgraced last start. Ran well on a heavy 8 over 1217m in maiden class this prep.
Comments: Surprised to see Vinland a short $2 favourite based on form and queries over distance and track condition. Columbia is the value of this race. This is a horse that is weighted to run very well today from a good barrier and looks well suited up to the 1600m.
Confidence 70%
Startegy: Columbia E/W
Sandown Hillside – Race 5 – 1400m – United Petroleum Handicap
3. Magnesprit: Failed last two starts in similar company after a BM-58 win. Struggle to suggest even on wetter.
7. Muccino: 5th at Donald last start in ‘harder company’. Handles wet only fairly.
8. King Kohei: Maiden and CL1 winner this prep before failing in this grade at Mornington. Unknown on wet.
10. Rock With You: Soft 6 winner in maiden company by 13L last prep at Benalla then ran 8th in G2 Ascot Derby./ Last prep disappointed on heavy before failing on Good. The horses best is clearly good enough to figure here.
13. Silent General: Maiden winner last start over 1400m. Unknown on wet and big jump in grade.
14. Blunakka: Maiden winner at Geelong on soft 5. Failed on heavy previous prep.
16. Urban Royal: Soft 6 winner in a maiden last start at Seymour. Times were ok but clearly more needed in this. That being said, they did gap the rest of field so could be handy enough.
17. The Cheetah: Well beaten in harder grade last two starts and couldn’t win a CL1 the prior run. Failed on heavy in past.
18. Jvala: Cranbourne 2nd in this grade last start at odds. Not the worst on heavy but not the best either.
20. Khulekani: Hasn’t won a race yet. First up here so win wouldn’t be a total shock for this stable but is hard to see.
Comments: A huge number of scratchings. Rock With You gets the nod in a very open and unknown race at good E/W odds. Obviously respect the favourite.
Confidence 50%
Startegy: Rock With You E/W
Sandown Hillside – Race 6 – 1000m – Sheen Group Handicap
2. Chiavari: Handles wet tracks and goes well at this track and these distances. Coming off a very good run behind SNitty Kitty two back. Respect big time here.
3. Petite’s Reward: Soft 5 winner four back then found nothing last few starts. Hard to suggest but may handle.
6. Miss Wonderland: Never seen a wet track in her life and heavy trial didn’t show much. Going ok but not convinced as well as last prep.
8. Sprightly Lass: Won three in a row and two trials as well. Handled a Heavy 9 as well in a trial. Smashed them last start. Very good type.
9. Gwenneth: Wasn’t ready in the yard first up but still found a way to win then ran well 3rd last start at Rosehill. Should go well enough on wet.
11. For a Song: Five runs this prep for two wins on soft. Big jump here.
13. Ovahead: Picnic type. Not here.
Comments: Super keen on Sprightly Lass to smash this field. $2.00 looks a great price on my ratings.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 8
Startegy: Sprightly Lass – 8 units @ $2.00 to win
Sandown Hillside – Race 7 – 1000m – Le Pine Funerals Handicap
1. Jungle Edge: The wetter the better for this horse. Will get the right track today. Loves a sprint and will be very hard to run down. 3kg claim a must.
2. Gun Case: Handles wet tracks and ran very well at course and distance last start behind Crystal Dreamer. Might get 1 out 1 back here.
3. Thermal Current: First up since June and never won first up in the past. Goes well 1000m. Never seen Heavy but goes well on Soft.
4. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Only run on a heavy track fairly beaten 2nd behind Labuan Star over 1000m. Goes well 1000m and best is good, but has to improve to win this one.
5. Lady Esprit: Never seen the heavy track in the past. Failed last start on a soft track but has won twice in the past on soft.
6. Olivier: Failed to show much first up but did travel wide. Goes well enough on wetter tracks. Not the worst here and goes well 2nd up.
Comments: Super keen to bet up here if we get to the race with a bet on Jungle Edge and a Saver bet on Gun Case.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2
Startegy: Jungle Edge – 5 units @ $2.90. Gun Case – 1.5 units @ $3.40.
Sandown Hillside – Race 8 – 1800m – Ladbrokes Handicap
2. Up Cups: Strong trials leading in here for this handy Tassy stayer. Good weight with claim but concussion plates a negative. 5 starts 0 wins on heavy but handles it.
3. Long Time Ago: Got back and still won very well in G3 class last start. Back in class up in distance but suited today. Query on heavy track.
4. Tarquin: Drifted and ran like a busted last start at Flemington when didn’t show up. Unknown on this track condition.
5. Al Haram: Hayes import. Gelded. Run 3rd in G3 at Chantilly over 2400m in the past on a soft track which suggests to me the horse won’t be legless on a Sandown heavy. 378 days between runs but clearly at this distance we have to respect the horses ability.
6. Like a Carousel: 1 win on soft from 10 starts and 0 wins on heavy. The longer the better… too short.
7. Portion Control: Not the worst runner here but did run poorly last start at Flemington. Need to find form. Never won on wet.
8. War Legend: Has won on heavy in the past a big tick. Was an ok run last start compared to previous run. Good weight and barrier only issue.
9. Night’s Watch: Never seen heavy. Get back run on type that was beaten by one better last start at Flemington. Will have to respect but will get back and run on again. Soft 7 fail as $1.55 favourite at Mortphetville 2nd up.
10. Shards: Hard to suggest a win based on the last two runs. Not convinced at this distance.
12. Guizot: Four runs this prep. Failed first up on heavy. Last start did win on Soft 7 as favourite at Pakenham.
13. Unrealistic: Dunkeld Cup winner last start at double figures coming off a 2nd at Mortlake. Big jump in class. Never won on heavy.
14. Jolie’s Cafe: Good 3rd last start at Moonee Valley and won well the run prior also. Never seen a heavy but always handled soft.
Comments: I’d be having a throw at the stumps here if betting to be honest. Wide open race. Tough to pick. Couldn’t touch the fav at the odds from the back. I’d be having a small play at the odds on Al Haram and Up Cups if you forced me.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 12
Startegy: Small E/W bets on Al Haram and Up Cups.
Sandown Hillside – Race 9 – 1300m – Schweppes Handicap
1. Nikitas: 1 start 1 win on heavy so have to respect. 3rd last start behind Got the Goss who has gone on to win since. Up in grade but not outclassed at all back up to 1300m. Go well.
2. Orient Line: 12 runs 0 wins on soft or heavy. Not the worst runs on lead in but has to improve.
5. Hokkaido: Soft 6 winner last start at Moe. Step up in grade here but not by much and has to be respected. Only run on heavy a fail the issue.
8. Lord Barrington: Handles all types of Heavy but 1 win from 7. Good run last start 2nd to Got the Goss beating home Nikitas. Smashed by Atlantic City the run before though.
9. Data Point: Always looked a nice type and has to be respected here. Goes well first up and most importantly only wins on wet tracks. Smashed a field easier than this on a Heavy 9 at Pakenham last prep by 4L. Handles heavy.
10. Floral Fever: Won 2 from 4 on heavy so will handle track. First up run at Ararat was poor. Has to improve here but has the ability.
11. Ancient History: Godolphin runner. 3 runs on heavy but yet to win. Goes ok but has to find more. First up run was ok.
13. Moonlover: Winner two back at Mornington and just missed last start at MV when 3-wide no cover. Goes fine on heavy tracks.
15. Widgee Turf: Heavy track trial winner. Only run on soft was a win. Goes well at this track and goes well first up. Right distance and back in grade here. Suited if ready.
17. Eureka Street: Heavy 9 winner last prep over 2000m. Handicap winner at Flemington. Distance the issue.
19. Forbidden Kisses: 6 runs 0 wins on soft. Much harder today.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. Wide in the Quaddie and if betting here i’d need to be on 32 runners.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 9, 13, 15, 17
Startegy: Back Data Point and Widgee Turf
