Welcome to The Profits preview for Sandown Cup Day at Sandown on 18 November 2017. The rain has come and hit the track on Wednesday and Thursday so we can expect a Good 4 to Soft 5 rated track if it dries out by start time on Saturday. This should ensure fair racing and give chances to the value runners on the card in our stable. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 6 – Crystal Dreamer – 7 units @ $3.50 to win.
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 9 – Raw Impulse – 3.5 units @ $3.70 to win. Kidmenever – 1.5 units @ $8.50 to win.
Best Each-Way
Sandown Race 2 – So Far Sokool – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.60
Best Value
Sandown Race 10 – Lucyinrio – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $61/$13
Other Bet
Sandown Race 4 – Illustrious Lad – 2 units @ $4.40 to win. Bassett – 1 unit @ $13.00 to win.
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1 – 1000m – Thoroughbred Club Merson Cooper Stakes
1. Long Leaf: Nice win at Morphetville first up but didn’t beat much and only just got the job done. Big jump in class and needs to improve.
2. Sanglier: Ran very strongly first up in a form race at Flemington when just didn’t get the runs 400-200m but ran solidly. Can run well here.
3. Irukandji: First run for the Hawkes stable today this 2YO Dundeel colt. Short in market already.
4. Mumbles: Lesser known trainer yard with a smart missle colt. First start and double figures.
5. Secret Blaze: Two solid open trials for the McEvoy yard and Kah takes the ride.
6. Yulong Monoceros: Flemington 5th was decent but had every chance. Has to improve.
7. Oohood: Another McEvoy horse and Kah jumps off from the trials run which was decent in my eyes. Currie onboard and the favoured of their runners.
8. Pure: Not given a lot in the trials. Hard to tell.
Comments: Wide open race to start the day. May find one from the yard but at this stage have to trust the form shown by Sanglier is good enough to improve off a few weeks between runs.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Sanglier E/W
Sandown Race 2 – 1400m – Twilight Glow Stakes
1. Split Lip: Five runs this prep. Last two runs have been poor but previous three were very good. Has ability but doesn’t have the consistency.
2. River Jewel: Three runs this prep but not got within 2L of a win. 3-wide no cover last start was still very good. Has ability.
3. Luqyaa: Three runs this prep. Good first up but failed wide no cover the next start. Back to 1400m last start ran home very well late just missed behind form horse Our Crown Mistress. Stays at 1400m and should be suited mapping further forward today.
4. Lady of Crebilly: Two runs this prep for a strong 1.2L and 2L win. The testing material today.
5. Yulong Xingsheng: Four runs this prep. Two back at Randwick a very strong 2nd. Held up for runs last start at Flemington and good work late. Respect.
6. Justice Glory: Wide no cover last start and did too much. Query over class in this.
7. From the Clouds: Disappointing run last start at Bendigo off a very good run three back at Caulfield. Step up positive to 1400m but not sure?
8. So Far SoKool: Huge chance here today coming off a strong Bendigo run 2nd to Tamasa. Very well suited here today back to a wetter track staying at 1400m. Nice barrier.
9. Sworn Evidence: Five runs this first prep and blinkers on today after two runs that wouldn’t measure up here. Not for mine even if was well backed last start.
10. Black and Tan: Ballarat maiden winner jumping up in class significantly. Needs to improve.
11. Sia: Hayes runner that won a Synthetic maiden but failed the first two starts this prep to get close to the level needed here.
12. Lilas: Geelong synthetic winner two back before failing at Caulfield. Hard to suggest.
13. Shagra: Maiden winner on heavy. Not the worst last start behind Tamasa at Bendigo but has to step up again here.
14. Leila’s Star: Mornington maiden winner. Big jump this from this stable.
15. Seductive Miss: Benalla maiden winner. Wasn’t a great win as a form line into this.
Comments: Luqyaa and Yulong Xingsheng both come into this with form lines ready to win while River Jewel also has the ability to step up.. but i’m following a horse I believe has the ability to level up in this grade and has huge improvement to come from the yard in So Far SoKool. Most importantly, I’m expecting the horse to sit on speed and run very well on a soft track.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: So Far Sokool – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$4.60
Sandown Race 3 – 3200m – Ladbrokes Sandown Cup
1. Havana Cooler: Beaten 8L 10L 5L and 6L the past four starts and steps up to 3200m for first time this prep. Unlikely for mine.
2. Gallic Chieftain: Got back to last in the Queen Elizabeth but failed to run on strongly from the back or make an impact. Was good in the Geeling Cup. Query first time up to the 3200m and should stay.
3. Fanatic: Strongly run 2800m last start at Flemington and was set up for swoopers with Fanatic the toughest of them coming home strongly to claim the win. Step up to 3200m ideal and will stay on strongly.
4. Swacadelic: Sustained a long run for 3rd last start behind Fanatic and will appreciate a step down in the tempo but step up to 3200m. Keeps running well and appreciates the distance.
6. Darabad: Should lead them around. Stuck on solidly at Flemington last start behind Fanatic but tempo was too tough. Will be the leader today pushing them around and will appreciate the 3200m.
7. O’Couney: BM-64 3rd last start over 2500m and looks hard to suggest in this class.
Comments: This is a very difficult race due to several horses unknown really over the 3200m. With that in mind, I just have to go with a horse here I know will get the distance and comes off a very solid run where the horse finished off over the top of them off a brutal tempo. That horse is Fanatic.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fanatic to win
Sandown Race 4 – 1300m – Kevin Heffernan Stakes
1. Burning Front: No issues wet or dry for this horse. Coming off a very good Caulfield run over 1400m but was hassled last start in the Crystal Mile and fell out before the turn to run 5th. Back to 1300m today looks more ideal on previous two runs and will go well from on speed.
2. Keen Array: Disappointed down the straight last start in the Linlithgow after two very positive runs with a win at Flemington and 2nd at Caulfield. Maps to get back and run on and doesn’t give weight to any horses today.
3. Illustrious Lad: Got home well enough late last start at Flemington but just not the type of horse to be suited by the straight. Step up to the 1300m ideal today for the horse and 3rd up will be ready to fire. Loves wet or dry and most importantly will love the speed on out front. Looks well suited.
4. Jungle Edge: 1600m back to 1200m today after running pretty well in the Sale Cup beaten 0.4l by Raw Impulse in 5th giving the horse 6kg.. gave Fastnet Tempest and Mos N Dale 6kg also. Equal weights today with field and steps back to sprint distances. The wetter the better. Never won on a Good track so needs at very least soft. Can go well.
5. Casino Wizard: Nice run two back at Morphetville but failed heavily down the Flemington straight. May just be out of class here.
6. Bassett: Ran very well two back at MV just never got a shot at them. Last start at Flemington the same thing when held up for runs 400m-250m when flying. Maps fort a perfect run off the leaders today to strike late.
7. Thronum: 5L Bendigo winner last start when led them around slowly and just bolted up. Didn’t look super in the yard but didn’t have to beat much at all on the day. Big step up in grade here.
8. Ocean Embers: Simply too good at Flemington last start when suited down the straight. No dramas soft or good and should be suited extra 100m. Just needs to get going early into the straight to run these down from out back.
Comments: This is a great race with several hard fit runners that can take a sit off a strong early speed and finish off late. Ocean Embers won well last start at Flemington in a race they didn’t run on fast early which set up perfectly for the horse to finish over the top of them late. That won’t happen here and i’ll take the horse on again. Burning Front, Jungle Edge and Thronum are all expected to go forward with the first two expected to set a strong tempo. I’m looking to back the two main horse I feel are best set to finish off strongly late here over the top in Illustrious Lad and Bassett.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Illustrious Lad – 2 units @ $4.40 to win. Bassett – 1 unit @ $13.00 to win.
Sandown Race 5 – 1500m – Chandler Macleod Recruitment Stakes
1. Lucky Hussler: No speed on last start in the Cantala so never suited when went back and didn’t do much. Won well two back in the Crystal Mile when they ran the race along early which suited Lucky Hussler late. Coming out of the slowest first 600m race and has the best figures if they do run it along here. 60kg. Soft track a query?
2. Hellova Street: Did it early and late at Flemington last start over the 1400m distance when went well above benchmark early and went even faster late which is what you want to see. Will lead them along again here and has to be considered a big chance on Good or Soft.
3. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Goes very well on Soft or Good tracks and comes off a strong Sale Cup win which has had the form franked since by Raw Impulse and Fastnet Tempest. Goes well these distances.. maps just off the speed and finishes it off late after doing work early which is what is needed to win here.
4. Duke of Brunswick: The run of the horses prep last start when just missed at Flemington when not looking 100%. Could improve from the yard but is always very fired up. Suited by fast tempo again.
5. Well Sprung: Continues to run poor races this prep and while you get the feeling the horse will just break through and do something, I can’t see it at this distance off the past 4 runs.
6. Dollar for Dollar: Looked the winner in the yard last start and got the ideal run throughout and was simply too good for a decent field. Won three in a row but this is a step up again. Goes well on soft and good tracks. Ideal.
7. Lizard Island: Hasn’t been anywhere near the top level this prep and really just looks done for mine. Take on.
8. Land of Plenty: Backed him last start but found one well too good on the day in Dollar for Dollar. Isn’t the type to map forward so maps awkwardly again today. Others preferred here.
Comments: Four key chances as the odds suggest in Lucky Hussler, Hellova Street, Moss ‘n’ Dale and Dollar for Dollar. Duke of Brunswick probably the value chance in the race. Moss ‘n’ Dale and Dollar for Dollar both come off perfect runs and peaks while Hellova Street also had it to suit last start. Moss ‘n’ Dale has the nod of the perfect runs at the weights for mine and Lucky Hussler would be close to near top in this race on a Good 3 track.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Moss ‘n’ Dale to win
Sandown Race 6 – 1000m – Clanbrooke Racing Doveton Stakes
1. Derryn: Two runs this prep beaten 4L and 6L. Yes, this is a step back in class and the horse will appreciate sting out… but this is a big step back.
2. Gun Case: Strong wide no cover win last start at Moonee Valley over 955m. Steps back up to 1000m and any extra rain will help a lot. Very well in here.
3. Crystal Dreamer: Well backed last start at Flemington when ran home very well in a race controlled on speed by the winner. Handles this track very well and handles fast tempos and soft tracks. Maps for the ideal run.
4. Lake Como: One start one win on soft and the same on heavy so no questions with wet tracks. Concussion plates first time a big query coming off a failure at Flemington. Clearly can win this if finds her best.
5. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Solid win two back at Cranbourne. Wide last start at MV but had his chances. Has to improve.
6. Concealer: Well backed with Lyuba last start at Flemington when hit the front and was run down late. Back to 1000m today and maps nicely here.
7. Olivier: Won nicely enough three back in easier class than this and has ran well since.
8. Lady Esprit: Looked near top last start in the yard and just got too far back on a track suiting leaders. Steps in well here.
9. Dance with Fontein: Two runs this prep and failed to fire either run. Tough here.
10. Thelburg: Held up for runs last start and was bolting. Trialed the house down and was near top in yard last start. Has to measure up, up in class here.
11. Motown Lil: Blinkers first time. Four runs since last win at course in much easier. Needs to improve.
12. Streetcar Illusion: BM-75 winner first up by 0.2L. Close finish and has to improve a stack here.
Comments: Crystal Dreamer, Gun Case, Concealer, Thelburg and Lake Como the standouts here. Crystal Dreamer clearly the horse to beat mapping perfectly coming off a very solid run. Concealer will need luck during run but is big odds here.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Crystal Dreamer – 7 units @ $3.50 to win.
Sandown Race 7 – 2400m – Quayclean Zipping Classic
1. Almandin: Given a shocker of a ride no cover in the Melbourne Cup but honestly just didn’t turn up on the day either. Enough time between runs and back to WFA where he will be incredibly hard to beat over 2400m.
2. Big Duke: Blinkers first time. Step back to 2400m ideal off a brilliant run in the Melbourne Cup but first time in WFA and comes in weighted alongside Almandin, giving Almandin 3.5KGs today. 2 wins 2 places from 4 starts at distance. Respect.
3. Assign: Pulled up lame last start at Caulfield and is very hard to suggest in any way shape or form today even with 3 weeks between runs. Here to set tempo?
4. Berisha: Good run 2nd in the Cranbourne Cup before failing two back at Geelong on the wet surface. Ran home okay last start behind Fanatic… better weighted but has to improve.
5. Dandy Gent: Good 4th first up before a disappointing 9th in the Kyneton Cup. Keep going well over distances.
6. So Si Bon: Best runs in the past have been over the distances 2000m plus. Goes up to 2400m here and isn’t a horse you can completely throw out of contention.
7. Consommateur: Looked very well last start at Flemington and found very little on the day coming off a similar run at MV. Not for me.
8. The Taj Mahal: Looked near his top last start and the run at Flemington was truly worthy to just get run down late. Respect. Distance only issue
Comments: Assign and The Taj Mahal will be pushing the tempo here while Almandin may very well just sit 1 back the rails behind Assign for the trip and I reckon the horse may ‘lay out’ into the straight’ off the rail *cough*. Big Duke maps for an ideal box seat and gets every chance here also with blinkers on. Both horses going well, but Almandin’s best this prep is better than Big Duke’s over the distance.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2
Strategy: Almandin to win (will be betting confidently if found in yard by DICKO in the MYM).
Sandown Race 8 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Sandown Guineas
1. Snitzepeg: Continues to go from strength to strength this prep… got back in the run instead of leading last start and stormed home to run a solid 5th. Horse is flying and can sit on speed or get back to and still win. Rates well here. Also enjoys soft tracks.
2. Beau Geste: Get back run on type who was held up for runs and considered a hard luck story at Flemington. Makes it hard on himself with this style of racing. Not a load of speed in this race but clearly going well. Only run soft track was a win.
3. Black Sail: 3-wide no cover last start at Flemington and just missed in a hot 1800m race. Blinkers on and from barrier maps to get a much better run. Respect.
4. Hypnotist: Had his chances last start at Flemington behind Levendi. Others preferred out of that race.
5. Icon of Dubai: Fairly beaten favourite by Snitzepeg and others last start at Flemington. Missed a run. Blinkers on.
6. Octabello: Respected in the market last start but only fair and not a threat. Blinkers on but has to improve.
7. Give: Failed the past three starts to fire. Not here for me.
8. Vinland: Maiden winner in a fairly hot race last start at Bendigo. Times were loud. Respect here but big jump.
9. Villermont: Benalla maiden winner. Not bad at Caulfield 4th but others preferred out of that race.
10. Peaceful State: Maiden winner at Ballarat. Tough off that to improve and win here.
11. I’ll Have a Bit: G2 2nd last start in much easier race than this for mine. Still has the ability to run well.
Comments: Wide open race! Snitzepeg has the adaptability to run well today while Black Sail has to be considered off a forgive run last start. Have to take on Beau Geste on pattern alone at the odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Strategy: Back Snitzepeg and Black Sail
Sandown Race 9 – 1800m – MyPunter.com Eclipse Stakes
1. Kidmenever: EIPH and THUMPS in the Herbert Power but was always a step below that level for mine. Step down here and back to 1800m better suited here today. Respect the horses ability in this grade.
2. Observational: Best runs in past on good ground. Failed to show much in Sale cup but does go well 2nd up.
3. Balf’s Choice: Solid 4th behind Odean at Flemington from on speed coming off a Seymour Cup win. 5 wins from 7 starts on soft tracks so any rain is ideal. Last start may have just felt the track. Can run well and win.
4. Foundation: Disappointing last two starts when failed coming off forgive run when should have won a poor handicap race. Best is obviously good enough and may just really want only 1800m.
5. Nozomi: Continues to run well this prep but last two starts up in grade found a few just too good. Poor barrier hurts chances here.
6. Raw Impulse: Peaked last start and just missed at Flemington when was really unlucky. 1800m ideal and up in grade also no knock. Big run here if backs up well.
7. Dodging Bullets: Two wins in a row. Didn’t beat much in the Kyneton Cup for mine and step back to 1800m. Need to improve again.
8. Jacquinot Bay: Plain at best last start hwen Fastnet Tempest and Raw Impulse got past ihm with little trouble. Can run a good race again but hard to see him winning a race ever again.
9. Pure Pride: Get back run on type. Lame last start. Take on today off a lameness issue.
10. Payroll: Got back to far and flew home for a great 2nd. Leader got away from them at turn and won easy. Respect here if they can run on today.
11. Von Tunzelman: Was backed last start when didn’t show too much on the firm track. Softer track should suit here for this G1 3L 6th in the past horse.
12. Lord Durante: Can run well but won’t be winning. Will set a good clip for them out front.
13. Raghu: Good win at Mornington from start to finish.. but huge step up here.
14. Khartoum: Not the worst the past two but this is a tough ask back to 1800m.
Comments: Raw Impulse was picture perfect last week and off a tempo that wasn’t overly fast flew home. Will get a harder tempo today where the cream will rise to the top and he looks well suited with just 56kg here. Kidmenever looks the main threat and is worth a bet also from on speed.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Raw Impulse – 3.5 units @ $3.70 to win. Kidmenever – 1.5 units @ $8.50 to win.
Sandown Race 10 – 1500m – Le Pine Funerals Summoned Stakes
1. Ravi: Ran well down the straight in the Linlithgow but found a few too good. Previous run unlucky at Caulfield off a strong tempo. Tough from barrier.
2. Oregon’s Day: Horrible in the yard and given a horrible ride to boot last start in G3 company over 1600m. Can improve significantly today.
3. Quilate: Run of race to win two back at Caulfield. Last start found a few simply too good from out back but was a decently run. Barrier hurts.
4. Deja Blue: Geelong listed grade winner but a few unlucky in that race. Trial since meh. Not for me.
5. Invincibella: Beaten favourite last start after missing the start and flying home. Should have won. Go well here again if jumps well.
6. Sebring Dream: Hugely disappointing well beaten over 2040m last start. Didn’t see out the distance I guess? Back to 1500m more suited but still tougher class. Can run well.
7. Jalan Jalan: Hasn’t won in a long time. Respectable runs two and three back but has to improve at the 1500m.
8. Petition: Strong 4th last start off a slow tempo out front and horse infront went onto win a G1. Horse is flying and due here. Good barrier helps.
10. Mrs Gardenia: Won two of three this prep and was a nice top weight win last start. Respect up to this from Weir stable.
11. Fille Champagne: Three runs this prep and failed to fire a shot on all 3 occasions. Not here.
12. Red is the Rose: Bm78 winner last start beating some average types at MV. Was clear favourite. Big step up but has to be respected on progression.
13. Whyouask: Nice enough run first up but beaten by horses that wouldn’t measure up here.
14. Lucyinrio: NZ import. EIPH first up when not a bad run wide no cover. Looks well suited here but barrier only fair.
paper not good enough.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day but Lucyinrio looks well over the odds here and is worth a play – has measured up in New Zealand Group 2 and 3 grade in the past and soft tracks are key. Won’t be surprised to see the Gai Bott runner win at odds either.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 14, 16
Strategy: Lucyinrio – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $61/$13
