Welcome to The Profits Form Guide for Day 5 of the 2015 Royal Ascot Carnival. The final day of the carnival has put up some of the hardest races all week. Hopefully we can bag a few winners and head home from the Carnival in one piece and a head after yesterdays blood bath. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Track Condition: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
Royal Ascot Race 1 – 2YO-LR – Chesham Stakes
1. Cymric: First run today. Market is your main guide and market says don’t back him today.
2. Force: Ran well enough first up for 3rd, but would need to find lengths on that run to measure up here.
3. Palawan: Went around as favourite first up in easier class and failed to place. Overlook that run as much as you can, but i couldn’t be on him today.
4. Red Artist: First up win at Newmarket in an okay contest. Step up here, but can’t do much more than win like he did first up.
5. Sixth Sense: Well beaten last start in a similar type of grade to this one, previous run saw him win very well by 3.3L in easier company.
6. Suits You: French winner over 1200m, impressive enough on what we saw in that win and you would expect him to be able to translate that form over to the English track up over 1400m.
7. Tonkinese: Maiden winner last start over 1400m at Leppy, went around a short priced favourite in the small field. Has to improve but did show that he wants the 1400m.
8. Ballydoyle: Well beaten when slowly away first up as favourite in the race. Owners obviously fancy the talent with this filly giving her the ballydoyle name. Respect, but geez $2.80?
9. Dessertoflife: Ran well enough first up on a firm track over 1300m, but last start back to a softer track over the 1400m ripped it up in an easier race as favourite. Step up here but has talent.
10. Lady Nayef: Well beaten every run to date. Take her on here.
11. Love The Kitten: Well beaten over 900m both runs to date including as $1.30 favourite. Have to take her on.
12. Sixties Sue: Won her maiden two back and ran well enough last start to suggest she can place.
Comments: I have to take BallyDoyle on today at the price on everything we saw first up against two types i think have the progression to continue their good last two starts.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Tonkinese @ $5.40 for 1 unit to win. Suits You @ $18.5 for 0.75 units to win.
Royal Ascot Race 2 – Listed – Wolferton Handicap
This race is a real struggle for mine. I’m happy to sit out. For a bet, I like Niceofyoutotellme on the E/W @ $19/$4.
Comments: Sitting out
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Niceofyoutotellme E/W @ $19/4
Royal Ascot Race 3 – Group 2 – Hardwicke Stakes
1. Eagle Top: Defeated Adelaide by 3.3 lengths at course and distance in 3Yo-G2 grade last RA carnival! Finished off that prep in Group 1 company when 4.8L 4th. First up run over 2000m ran 2.5L 4th to Western Hymn which isn’t the best form to bring into this, but 3 weeks between runs, expect improvement if last prep is anything to go off. His best is well and truly good enough.
2. Hillstar: Super consistent last prep with four seconds in a row in Group 3/2 company before breaking through for a Group 3. Obviously his hardest set task for a while this one and he is will be suited by the firm track and distance. Never won first up or at this class is a big issue.
3. Postponed: Looks to be flying on runs this prep. 0.8L 2nd to Western Hymn first up and then 0.5L 3rd to Al Kazeem in Group 1 company last start. Last prep won in 3Y-GP2 at York over 2400m beating Snow Sky to finish his prep, so no issues with the distance. Looks well in.
4. Red Cadeaux: Old mate Red Caddy… not going as well this prep as he has shown in his previous preps, his best form has been over 3200m and above. Happy to take him on.
5. Sheikhzayedroad: Two preps back Group 1 winner and loves a firm track. Previous to that won a Group 2. Last prep just the two runs over at Meydan for a 1.8L 2nd then failed the next start in harder company 6.5L 5th. First up run was painful when 5.8L 4th to Pethers Moon. Hard to have today.
6. Snow Sky: Talented colt who ran 2nd to Postponed two preps back and 4th to Eagle Top as well that prep. Did beat Hartnell though interestingly. First up run won well over 2800m beating Brown Panther. Firm track ideal.
7. Telescope: Last carnival 7L winner over Hillstar in said race. Since then hasn’t won in four group races since but did go close first up this prep when 0.2L 2nd to Second Step as $1.60 favourite in a 4 horse race. Way back in class to Listed won 6L as his run in. Have to respect his very best is good enough, but big concerns based on that first up run. Had a month between runs should help at least.
Comments: I’m wanting to take on Telescope today at the price. Yes, the horses top ratings so win this race, but based on first two runs this prep I’m not sure we will be seeing the peak rating today. The same can be said for Eagle Top, the first up run was very disappointing from what I saw. I want to be with two runners coming in with strong form lines in Postponed and Snow Sky. Postponed went a close 3rd in Group 1 copany last start after a good run in Group 3 company. The step up to 2400m is ideal today and will be very hard to beat. Snow Sky has proved to be a very handy type in the past. First up showed that he is back to his best beating Brown Panther at York.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Postponed to win @ $4.10 for 2 units. Snow Sky to win @ $16.00 for 0.75 units.
Royal Ascot Race 4 – Group 1 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes
1. Ansgar: Failed at 1400m last start and back to 1200m today isn’t exactly ideal for a horse that has always generally been run over 1400m-1600m. Did win in Group company last prep 3 times over 1400m, but never a group 1. Second rater.
2. Astaire: Won quite well 2nd up this prep in Group 3 company. Ran well for 1L 6th in Group 2 company next start but failed last start in a 9 runner race on a wetter track. Firmer today have to believe he can run well.
3. Brazen Beau: Up 6.5kg today on his last start Group 1 win at Flemington. Obviously beat a good field, but he got away with crawling out front and has a big turn of foot combined with 52kg to just run away. Much harder here today, best runs have been when there has been a soft to medium tempo. This tempo looks hot.
4. Caspar Netscher: Won just one of his last 18 runs, he continues to run well in group company but can’t break through, especially in Group 2-3 grade. Hard to have in Group 1 this non-winner.
5. Due Diligence: Progressed well last prep with strong wins down the straight which ended with a very nice 2nd to Slade Power. First up run they tried him over the 1400m but failed to run it out. Goes well at this track and distance and Moore onboard, but is he going well enough coming into this? Had 2 months off to train on at least.
6. Glass Office: Unfancied second up after an average run first up behind Goldream, but even with the 61kg got the win at York at $50s. Previous prep ran well 1.8L 4th in Group 2 company. Have to respect on last start run.
7. Gordon Lord Byron: Failed his last two runs on the road with a poor run in Hong Kong then first up at the Curragh ran out the back. Can’t make many excuses for either run really… last win was on a heavy track… super firm today.
8. Moviesta: 0.5L 3rd and 1L 4th in Group 1 company last prep. Certainly has the ability to measure up, but has to be an issue that he has never won first up and hasn’t won since the middle of 2013. Would prefer with a few runs on the board.
9. Music Master: Group 3 winner, has run well enough in the past to place in Group 1 company. Very poor run in Listed grade last start certainly a concern coming into this.
10. Mustajeeb: Good win in Group 2 company last start, has won multiple group races in the past but just failed to beat the very best in Group 1 company. Doesn’t meet the very best IMO here today so have to believe on first up run he can win.
11. Pearl Secret: Huge run last start early in the week when smashed the line from too far back in a race favouring those closer to the pace. Respect!
12. Tropics: Listed winner to start the prep, only just, Ran well enough behind a few runners in this one today last prep in group company but never got the win.
13. Undrafted: Group 3 winner, his very best can measure up here. The issue is coming into this today, his two runs were 2nd and 3rd in Group 3 company off 53.5kg. Has to improve but has the ability.
14. Wandjina: No question in my mind that he is a good horse. Can do it from the front or the back.. but is the 1200m actually suitable for him today? Gai would have trained him for this and when you consider his runs over 1400m, you can see why people would believe he is suited at Ascot which is really a longer test than a 1200m at home. Most importnatly, we know Wandjina is a tough war-horse type which is what you need to sustain a 600m run at this track.
15. Lucky Kristale: Unloved in the market and on form I can understand why. Take her on here.
Comments: I think the market has this race wrong. Brazen Beau is a good horse, but i’m willing to take him on with two that i think we well suited today. Pearl Secret showed me more than enough in the Group 1 early in the week when making up a stack of ground. They will try and ride a little more forward today to time the run right. Wandjina I feel will be suited by the slight step back in distance and also the toughness required to win here at Ascot.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Pearl Secret @ $24/$6.40 for 1.5 units each-way. Wandjina @ $15.5 for 1 unit to win.
