Welcome to The Profits Form Guide for Day 4 of the 2015 Royal Ascot Carnival. A small recap of day three, we are just hanging in there this carnival thanks to a few good bets with some of our bigger ones missing. We landed one of the two E/W specials that we posted up at $8s which helped, but our most confident bet of the carnival to date could only manage 3rd (money back if you took with William Hill at least) and our pick in the first was also 3rd (money back Sportsbet). If you were playing the money back specials, it was a good night, but we will never claim those on any of our records, it’s not a fair way to judge performance! Hopefully we can get the best bet home tonight and with Ryan Moore riding well onboard, i’m expecting the horse to win this. The Americans may just have a day out with some very good types going around today. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Track Condition: Good to Firm (Watered) – Note that the water did nothing yesterday, those needing just a little sting out couldn’t stride out.
Royal Ascot Race 1 – 2F-GP3 – Albany Stakes
One of those many races where you have to pretty much guess to be right with so much improvement expected on runners last few runs.
Today looks a day where the Americans will be taking home a few races and my form points to the 11L first up winner over 900m (Fab Fevola would be proud) in 11. Laxfield Road.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Laxfield Road E/W
Royal Ascot Race 2 – 3Y-GP2 – King Edward VII Stakes
1. Balios: One run and win in first prep at 2. Came back even better on ratings at 3 with a 0.5L 2nd first up over the 2000m. Bred to get this distance and has to be considered on first up run.
2. Father Christmas: Up to the 2100m only won a fairly average maiden as favourite. Hard to suggest the required progression for the outright win.
3. Festive Fare: Won his maiden before a strong 4.5L win. Went around 2nd favourite and finished 2.5L 4th to Golden Horn before going for a spell. Back after two months off and if goes straight and handles the distance, looks one to beat on this firm ground.
4. Magic Danger: Stepped up in distance last start at Lingfield and ran well enough for 2nd, but this is a step up again. Outsider in the race for a reason.
5. Mr Singh: Most likely be out the back, missed the start both runs this prep. Gets the distance based on last two runs but is he the very best in this race? Not for mine on those runs to date.
6. Ol’ Man River: Very good horse in his first prep with a strong 2Y-Gp2 win, but failed first up and then equally as bad second up. Hard to suggest on current form.
7. Stravagante: Very disappointing first up but ran very well last start beating a decent field at Epsom. Has to improve again for mine but respect him.
Comments: I’m a big fan of Festive Fare on what i saw the first prep and i’m happy to take the E/W price again today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Festive Fare @ $6/$3.15 for 1 unit Each-Way
Royal Ascot Race 3 – 3Y-GP1 – Commonwealth Cup
1. Adaay: Two good wins in a row and makes another step up in class today. Won well enough last start to suggest he should go close today.
2. Ahlan Emarati: Never fully measured up at the top level. First up run showed very little. One i’m happy to take on here.
3. Cyclogenisis: Three runs for three wins. Big step up in class and will carry 7kg more than last start when won in 3YO-Lr.
4. El Valle: 3Y-GP3 winner ending last prep. Just the two months between runs, best has been seen on tracks with a bit of sting out which won’t be had today.
5. Goken: Ran well enough two back behind El Valle for 3rd then last start improved to win in 3Y-Gp3 class. Last prep went well enough in 2YO class and ran 2.5L 11th in a open group 1… has ability but probably finds one or two too good.
6. Home of the Brave: 3YO-LR winner first up and Tupi has run well since, but well beaten last start behind GLenEagles. Needs to show large improvement to measure up here.
7. Hootenanny: 0.5L 2nd to The Wow Signal three preps back as a 2Yo. Then won a 2F-Gp1 over 1600m. Only run this prep was a 6.5L win in 3Y-ALW… only run at course was at this carnival last prep beating a 24 horse race by 3.5 lengths… looks the real deal.
8. Jungle Cat: Just the 1 win from 9 starts, well named with Cat in the name of this runner. Has run some good group placed races but never got that win. Can’t see it here.
9. Kool Kompany: Good win first up but then failed behind GlenEagles last start. Back to 1200m the key.. should run well but has to find much more than what he showed us last start obviously.
10. Limato: Won 5 from 6 but Adaay got the better of him last start. Another step up in class, will be there in the finish.
11. Muhaarar: Well beaten when didn’t find much last start over in France. Winner failed in the first day of the carnival. Did well well enough first up though and last prep did measure up around some in this grade today.
12. Profitable: Step up in class again today, not sure he is as good as you need to be to measure up in this. Happy to take him on.
13. Salt Island: Good win firs tup in much easier class but well beaten in two runs since. Take on.
14. Anthem Alexander: 3rd and 2nd in 2Y-Gp2/1 class last prep and run before that was a win at course and similar distance over the carnival beating Tiggy Wiggy. Win first up was a fair win, but needs to improve again to beat this lot.
15. New Providence: Well beaten last start by Adaay and couldn’t win two previous runs. Has ability but place at best for mine.
16. Pastoral Girl: Unlucky first up not to be winning a 1200m Fm-LR. Well beaten last start up in distance. Best seen on softer ground than this the issue. Don’t fully dismiss.
17. Tendu: Just the 1 win to date, failed to measure up at 2F-Gp1 class but did run well enough 2nd to Limato at course and distance in easier class before losing to Profitable last start at York due to a poor start. Similar star means all chances gone today.
18. Tiggy Wiggy: 2Y-GP2/1 winner, two runs this prep only fair. Take her on in this on current form.
Comments: I hate the name of this runner, but you cannot deny the form lines – Hootenanny! Measured up here as a 2Yo and is 4 wins from six not missing a place, including in two quality 2F-Gp1 races. First up run showed the bloke is flying. Ryan Moore onboard, the price won’t last.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Hootenanny @ $4.40/$2.20 for 2.5 units each-way.
Royal Ascot Race 4 – 3F-Gp1 – Coronation Stakes Fillies’
1. Arabian Queen: 2F-GP2 winner last prep over 1200m. First up run this prep in FM-Gp3 showed huge improvement to win by a lazy 4 lengths at Epsom! Looks to be flying right now and a repeat of that last start run would be enough to measure up in this.
2. Ervedya: 2YO-G3 winner and placed 3rd to The Wow Signal in 2YO-G1 and also 2nd to Found in similar class, came out firing to start this prep with a 3F-GP3 win followed by a last start 3F-GP1 win. Best runs have been on tracks with at least a slight bit of give, but has performed well enough on a Good track also. Respect, form lines hard to fault.
3. Found: 2F-GP1 winner beating Ervedya last prep, came back in Group 3 company running 2nd then 3F-GP1 2nd to Pleasach who failed to win as favourite yesterday but still measured up for 2nd. Respect but has to improve.
4. Irish Rookie: 2F-LR winner, two runs this prep saw her fail first up but then run 0.8L 2nd to Ervedya last start. Looks an outsider chance if improves again but does need to run a blinder.
5. Local Time: Winner at 2 in 2F-Gp3 company, then three runs last prep at Meydan with a 3F-SCN win, 3F-LR win and 3F-GP3 win by 4.8 lengths (5 horse field). Failed first up over 1600m in 3F-GP1 company though but is obviously better than that.
6. Lucida: 2F-GP2 winner and close 2nd in 2F-GP1 also. First up ran 0.8L 2nd in 3F-Gp1 and that is a perfect lead into this run today. Will go close.
7. Miss Temple City: 5 runs to rate and never missed a place. 3YO winner last start when back in class from 3F-GP3 2nd.. obviously has ability but way up in weights today and has to make a big step up over here.
8. Sperry: Two wins in a row this prep progressing through the grades nicely enough. Step up again today should measure up but is this a step beyond her?
9. Yasmeen: Good run last start when 2nd to Sperry. Not the best here for mine.
Comments: At the $2.76 being bet on Found, i’m very keen to take her on here in this race today. Arabian Queen looks a big price today based on that first up run at Epsom and i can’t resist having a bit on here. I’m also a forgiving person and based on potential I want to be on Local Time here today also at big odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Arabian Queen @ $21 for 0.5 units to win. Local Time @ $48 for 0.5 units to win.
