Welcome to The Profits Form Guide for Day 3 of the 2015 Royal Ascot Carnival. A small recap of day two, the day didn’t start very well for us with the favourite in the first race failing to run it out after being smashed in running. Our most ‘confident’ shorty of the day had the dream run but looked to jar up or something based on how quickly the horse fell out of it… but the feature race got us out of trouble and ahead with Free Eagle hanging on in what was a very lucky win from The Grey Gatsby who just couldn’t get a run until about the 200m mark and just missed in a photo. The eagles are certainly flying and I wouldn’t be tipping against any in the coming week, including the West Coast kind! Looking at the card from the outside in i wasn’t too confident at all, but i’m very bullish about the tips today. I expect we will get off to a very nice start in the first race, believe our two each-way bets in R2 and R3 are both wining chances and should be battling out the finish, while our best of the day is also our most confident for the carnival too date in the Gold Cup. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Track Condition: Good to Firm (Watered)
Race 1 – 2Y-GP2 – Norfolk Stakes
5. King of Rooks: Clear standout in the race today after a 5L demolition last start of Buratino who came out on Day 1 and won with class. Previous run was a 6L win as well. Suited by track, distance, everything!
6. Log out Island: Looks the main threat to the favourite today, ran a blistering 4.5L win at course and distance beating Handytalk, but that was only a 6 horse race and this is much harder.
Comments: Just looking at the two runners in the opener, as the betting and the form suggests this is a two horse race. I simply can’t go past King of Rooks with that defeat of Buratino being franked significantly on day one. *Worth noting Sportsbet is money back 2nd/3rd in R1 up to $100*
Confidence 70%
Strategy: King of Rooks to win @ $2.08 for 1 unit. If you wanted to go really save you could saver bet Log Out Island also.
Race 2 – 3Y-GP3 – Tercentenary Stakes
1. Maftool: Well beaten last start in Paris after being beaten by 8L at Meydan for 2nd the previous run. Did beat the horse that beat him by 8L the run before that. Won in a 2Yo-Gp3 over 1400m, but the 2000m does look to be not his ideal trip on runs to date for mine
2. Master Apprentice: Looked a decent type as a 2YO but never got the win to put himself on the map. First up this prep over 2000m was an outsider in a 4 horse field in 3Y-GP3 and won very well. Needs to make the step up again in a larger race.
3. Cape Clear Island: Won first up and beaten as 2nd up as 2nd favourite by Master Apprentice. Went over to France to run 2nd in 3Y-Gp2 behind Ampere before being well beaten by New Bay in the derby. Has the ability to measure up and best runs have been on Good ground, but do struggle to suggest him besting the lot of these 5th run in without a perfect run and all the favours.
4. Disegno: Progressive type (Go Aussie). Only won once to date but never missed a place in all 5 runs. 2nd up last start this prep ran 0.1L 2nd in a 4 horse 3YO-LR at Chester. Before that ran Golden Horn to 2L which has to be considered a strong form line. Has ability you have to respect.
5. Don Camillo: Maiden winner, measured up in 3Y-HCP class last start at Dundalk but this is MUCH harder. Others i’d consider before this colt.
6. Faithful Creek: Failed over at Meydan only run last prep. Previous prep won in 2M-Cl5 then placed several times including in 2YO-LR and 2Y-Gp3. Didn’t run too badly either in 2F-GP1 5th. First up run was average at best though last start.
7. Librisa Breeze: CLS5 2nd then back to 3Y-CL5 win at Lingfield $1.50 favourite. First up today for 3 months.. has progression to come but enough to take this race? Doubt it.
8. Mustadeem: Very average run first up 13L 6th, but then last start returned to form with a 1.3L 2nd to Peacock in 3YO-LR company. I wouldn’t dismiss him on progression between runs.
9. Nafaqa: 2YO-LR winner last prep over 1400m, ran 2nd in 2Y-GP2. First up 2nd to Kool Kompany in 3Y-GP3 then 4th to Golden Horn before starting favourite with top weight last start when 1.8L 4th to Peacock. Down 3kg here today compared to others that just beat him home who are just down 1kg. Have to respect.
10. Not So Sleepy: Clearly shown best runs to date on Soft ground. Good win first up in 3YO-LR company. Suited by distance but struggle to back on the ground today on only run on Good track to date.
11. Peacock: The cock ran very well 2nd to Golden Horn two runs back before winning last start. Down 1kg but won very well last start even if giving 2kg to 4th placed horse in that race that is a good form guide here.
12. Restorer: 2Y-Gp3 2nd last prep on record at big odds, failed in 2Y-Gp1 though. First run at the 2000m today and best form was on a soft track. Hard to have first up unless well backed.
13. Time Test: Throw at the stumps today after a strong win first up in 3Y-CL2 class. Has the ability to measure up. Time will tell if this test is too hard.
14. Bocca Baciata: Beat 3F-Gp1 winner Pleasach two back on a soft track over 2000m… then ran a decent 3L 5th at the Curragh to Pleasach in 3F-Gp1 class. Last start told me the horse isn’t an issue on the good ground and that the 1600m was just a tad too sharp in that level of class and she was wanting more of a grind. Will be on the speed and be hard to get past.
Comments: Bocca Baciata is the clear standout for me today back up to 2000m. Would be close to favourite today on a softer surface, but I feel the good track is only a small setback and provides us with a much higher % edge in the betting. No disgrace last start in the 3F-Gp1 race 5th to Pleascach at all, just proved she is wanting the extra distance and is best seen out the front.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bocca Baciata @ $8.40/$2.84 for 1.5 units each-way.
Race 3 – 3F-GP2 – Ribblesdale Stakes
1. Brandybend: Fourth run in.. failed to win her maiden but then won in 3Y-CL4 class… failed to place in 3F-LR last start and up in class again. Struggle to suggest on recent runs.
2. Curvy: Three runs this prep for three wins including an open class F&M which is a good sign. Last start won in 3Y-GP3 company and the step up to 2400m 4th up is no disadvantage. Rates to win.
3. Entertainment: Maiden only winner, two runs since was 6L 2nd to a good type and then failed to run it out last start. Query runner for mine.
4. Forte: 2Y-Cl5 winner and then ran a just fair 5.5L 6th in 2F-GP1 class to end last prep. First up well beaten and didn’t have many excuses.
5. Gretchen: Begun poorly first run in in 3Y-CL5 class but won well enough by 1.8L beating what looks only an average bunch. Untapped and hard to rate, place chance?
6. Pamona: Green first up cost her the win but smashed the field back in class after that. Went up as favourite in 3F-LR last start and didn’t get a run for 250m which cost her most her chances when 4L 3rd. Looks to have ability. Threat to fav.
7. Pandora: Begun poorly last start in 3F-GP3 at York. Finished off nicely enough for 3L 3rd in 5 horse race… but would need to find about 4 lengths today to measure up and i can’t see that occurring.
8. Pleascach: Class. Maiden winner at two, stepped out beaten favourite in 3F-LR 2nd but then dominated a FM-GP3 to win by 8.5L next start on a soft ground. Back to 1600m last start won a 3F-GP1 on a good track and steps back in class today but up to the 2400m. Not a huge fan of the distance change but obviously the horse to beat on last start win.
9. Wedding Vow: Non-winner to date, 2nd in maiden, well beaten 2nd in FM-Lr then 2L 3rd as favourite last start at Lingfield. Costly to date for punters and i’m not getting on now in this race!
10. Zamoura: CLS5 winner as a 2YO in very easy class with 53kg, won first up in 3Y-CL4 class before being well beaten in 3rd first up in 3F-LR. Has to improve but does have ability.
Comments: I was a bit surprised by the pricing on this race today. I expected Pleascach to start favourite but $2.08 does look mighty short. Pamona and Curvy are the two that rate next highest in the race for me and the betting edge is clearly with Curvy in the race having won three in a row including outside of the age group. Most importantly, top rated runs were on good tracks over 2000m so the 2400m looks ideal.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Curvy @ $8.00 / $2.40 for 1 unit Each-Way. Alternative strategy to consider would be 2 units Pleasach to win and 1 unit each on Curvy and Pamona.
Race 4 – Group 1 – Gold Cup
1. Bathyrhon: Proven at the distance, ran a 0.2L 2nd to end last prep in Group 1 over 4000m after a group 3 win in style before that. Shown his best on good tracks, the track should suit today. First up run was very average over in Meydan but ran very well back in France last start to win a Group 2 well in lesser class than this. Respect him here. Suited.
2. Biographer: Wasn’t won since 2012, first up run well beaten over 2800m and last prep couldn’t get closer than 2.5L in 3200-3600m races. One i think you just have to take on.
3. Forgotten Rules: Untapped, undefeated, 3200m 13L win first run ever, break, 2800m a lazy 8L win, break, 3200m 1.8L win at course over 3200m, break, first up Group 3 winner over 2800m. Looks to have massive potential on those runs and most importantly second up today should be match fit for the 4000m. Key runner.
4. Havana Beat: Just the one win in the last 15 runs and that was a 2700m listed win. Hasn’t gone close in group company in the past and last prep ran in this race for 12L 7th.
5. Kalann: Won just once in last 17 runs and that was a 3Y+HCP over 3200m. Did run nicely enough 3rd to Estimate in Group 2 class over 2600m after that but then failed over 3200m to finish prep in listed company for just a 3rd. First up found nothing over 2800m. Hard to have on stats.
6. Simenon: Yup, trend as per the previous two horses we previewed, one win in the last 15 runs (5 preps) and that was a Hurdle group 3 race. Hasn’t been closer than 3L off a win in recent runs in group company on the flat and ran just 4th here last year beaten 5 lengths. Does go much better second up but first up run 3.3L 5th in Group 3 over 3300m makes it hard.
7. Tac De Boistron: He has been quite consistent the last few preps it has to be said winning in Group company including Group 1s. Clearly his best runs have all been on heavy or soft tracks with two runs on heavy in group 1s for two wins while 3 runs on soft for a 2nd and 1st in group 3 company and 2nd in group 1. Only run on a good track was a 2nd at york in Group 2 company which makes you consider his chances here, but clearly in the past his peak has been on wet.
8. Forever Now: Won just two races to date with the last win in Listed company. Three runs this prep and improved after each one. Fancied int he last two runs but only managed 3.3L 3rd and 2.8L 4th on those occasions. Should handle the distance on breeding but struggle to suggest him here.
9. Kingfisher: This looks a massive through at the stumps on previous runs to date. Last start won in Listed company over 2800m, just and as a 3YO competed over the 2000m up to 2400m. Could find another gear over the distance so don’t discount fully, but I just can’t see how you can take him on trust today.
10. Mizzou: Progressive looking colt, he won his maiden then progressed to 3Yo-C4, 3Y-CL2 before a 0.2L 3rd to end prep at course over 2800m. Given 6 months off, trained on and won very well at course over 3200m first up in Group 3 company. Should step up again with a month and a half between runs and looks trained for this race. Interesting runner.
11. Scotland: Always around the mark as a 3YO but never exactly went close. Only won as a 2YO. First up ran well enough 5th in Group 3 company but then failed last start over 2400m in Listed company. Struggle to see the win or place here on all form to date.
12. Trip to Paris: Won up to 3700m this prep so no issues with this bloke getting the distance, but is he good enough? First run in Group 1 company and was well beaten last start by Vent De Force, a horse Mizzou beat well a month beforehand by 2 lengths at course over a similar distance.
13. Vent De Force: Form around Trip to Paris and Mizzou. Measured up as a 3YO with close 2nd in 3Y-GP2 over 3000m. Best runs clearly on good tracks in the past. First up run was fair and improved well to claim the win 2nd up as favourite.. needs another gear again today.
14. Windshear: CLS2 winner over 2400m, previous prep ran 0.3L to snow sky in 3YO-G3 and 2.8L 2nd to Hartnell over 2600m. Last three runs this prep haven’t inspired confidence.
Comments: I always do my form before looking at the odds and it’s no surprise to be Forgotten Rules come up favourite, in fact I was expecting closer to $2.80 than the $4.00 being bet. On my ratings Tac De Boistron should give a good showing today also but certainly would be favourite on a soft or heavy track instead of the track today that continues to firm. Mizzou is the most interesting and progressive runner in the race and looks the main threat on my ratings, so there wasn’t a great shock when i saw the horse $6.50 2nd favourite. At the price, i’m very keen on Forgotten Rules. *Worth noting William Hill is money back 2nd/3rd up to $100 in this race*
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Forgotten Rules to win @ $4.00 for 7 units
