Welcome to The Profits Form Guide for Day 2 of the 2015 Royal Ascot Carnival. A small recap of day one, nothing really went our way. Our two most confident picks in Able Friend and Make Believe were backed in betting late, but both fell well out of it not competing to the line. In the 2nd race of the day, we went well down on our confidence for the race but did snag the winner at $9s. Our tip in the King’s Stand Stakes was scratched and our replacement pick on Twitter in Sole Power could only manage a top 5 run, while Medicean Man who we gave a shout out for at the stupidly bet odds of $140-1 traded into $1.63 in-play before being nabbed on the line – fairly though, we did suggest the place, not the win. Gleneagles certainly had the St James’s Palace Stakes run to suit with Consort making a competitive speed, but Gleneagles sprouted wings yesterday and recorded what I believe is his best win to date. Today looks a fairly trick card from the outset, with one clear top pick on the cards. I think Criterion is a massive chance today in the feature and the $16s being bet on Betfair is well over the correct odds and he features in our play for that race. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Track Condition: Good to Firm
Royal Ascot Race 1 – 3Y-GP3 – Jersey Stakes
1. Ivawood: Dropping back in class today from 3Y-GP1 last start when running 1.3L 3rd to Gleneagles and previous run 3L 3rd to Gleneagles, it’s hard to fault his form. 2YO-G2 winner and a 0.1L 2Y-Gp1 2nd, his three runs this prep have seen improvement on each run. The drop back to 1400m looks ideal from what i’ve seen to date considering his best runs at 2 were over 1000-1200m. Very well weighted on the weight scale for this race with just 60k.
2. Dutch Connection: 2YO-GP3 winner, his first up run was well below par when 7th of 18 to GlenEagles by 7.5 lengths. Giving Ivawood 3.5L for 1kg swing.. certainly has the class to run well back to 1400m, but would need to turn that firs tup run around… last prep took a few runs to fin dbest also.
3. Aces: Ran well enough as a 2Yo but two runs as a 3YO, hasn’t been able to measure up to anywhere near the ratings required to beat this field. Struggle to suggest.
4. Bossy Guest: Won first up this prep and made the step up last start to finish 3.5L behind Gleneagles and 0.5L off Ivawood. Meets Ivawood 2.5kg better today, have to respect him in taking another step up today.
5. Fanciful Angel: Didn’t measure up to the top level as a 2Yo but did land 6 horse 3YO-LR two runs back. Last start well beaten by Karpino running 2nd… does look beyond him on form.
6. Father Frost: Maiden only winner, failed to place in two runs since. Struggle to suggest him placing here on recent form.
7. Harry Hurricane: Won over 1400m last prep but most runs were over the 1000m. Stable couldn’t decide if he was a sprinter or not! Decided to start this prep over 1600m a big call… has to improve to measure up here.
8. Hathal: 2.8L 2nd to Consort last prep. First up won well enough as a very short priced favourite in much easier at Lingfield. Respect, but couldn’t back on those two runs to date.
9. Luck of the Kitten: 2YO winner, two runs to date as a 3YO. First up went well for 2nd but that wasn’t exactly the hardest race you will ever see. Well beaten last start…not sure i could take him here.
10. Mister Universe: Won at course over 1400m three runs back in easier company. Next start failed at Goodwood before an okay run last start at Epsom for 2nd. Need to improve again but should be contesting the finish if gets a good run.
11. Sir Isaac Newton: Maiden only winner… turned over first up as a $1.20 shot! Went back to 1400m last start from the 2100m and up to 1600m looks ideal. Sectionals were fine and handled the Good ground.
12. Toscanini: Maiden win only as a 2YO but did run 1.5L 2nd to GlenEagles and 2nd in a 2YO-Gp3… plus a few other listed races including one at this carnival. First up won over 1200m in 2YO class… then well beaten in 3Y-Gp2 class. Big step up straight away to 1600m… best run last prep was over 1400m so have to believe the 1600m will suit more than 1200m.
13. Tupi: 3YO-LR winner last start, should progress well into this race, but needs to find another gear to match these.
14. Volatile: 3YO-LR winner over in Meydan, won in 3YO class since and last start 3YO-Gp3 3rd. Have to respect them bringing the horse here and has run well at the top level. Looks the value in the race.
15. Devonshire: Three runs to date, can’t talk down any of the three runs when ran 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in group company. Best rating run this prep was on a Good ground and we get that today. Respected in betting.
16. Fadhayyil: Ran well enough as a 2YO but first up run was very rough. Struggle to rate her as a 4th favourite here today.
Comments: Hard to bet around the favourite in this one today. Ivawood will measure up here today on the ratings of his last three runs. Each run he has improved and expect him to be there at the finish fighting it out. Volatile is the overs in the race at $60s on Betfair based on his peak Meydan run beating Mastermind.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Ivawood @ $2.92 for 3 units to win. Volatile @ $60 for 0.25 units to win.
Royal Ascot Race – 2F-GP2 – Queen Mary Fillies’ Stakes
The ultimate crapshoot race.
22 runners with no more than 3 runs of form for any runner, most with just the 1 or 2 runs.
Most runners will find lengths of progression on their last few runs, but it’s really all about rating their last run and estimating how much is required to measure up to the favourites. You have to consider the fact the favourite was beaten by 7.5 lengths last start as a $1.70 favourite off 53kg to see exactly how dicey this race really is. Easton Angel is our top pick in the race.
Comments: Happy to sit this one out completely.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Easton Angel E/W
Royal Ascot Race 3 – MS-Gp2 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes
1. Integral: FM-GP1 winner last prep, twice. Won at track this carnival last prep in FM-GP2 as well so no quesiton on the track or on this track condition either. Giving a maximum of 2kg to the rest of the field, looks very well weighted based on Group 1 4th by 1.3L first up. Won 2 from 2 second up in the past and is a very good horse.
2. Bragging: Won first up in this class before going under as a short favourite next start at York over further, failing to place. 2100m back to 1600m, Ryan Moore jumps off to ride Integral if that gives you a hint.
3. Cladocera: FM-GP2 winner over in Meydan, twice last prep before 6L 6th to Solow in Group 1 class. Goes well first up and did win as a 3YO in listed company over in France at this distance also. Handles all track conditions.
4. Amazing Maria: Looked a very good horse in her first prep when winning in 2YO-G3 in style to finish the prep, but three preps since has failed to win, not getting closer than 2.5L (last start) to a win. Take her on here.
5. Euro Charline: Ran 1L 3rd in 3F-Gp1 at this carnival lst year and was a little unlucky not to be in the finish that day. Won the next start at course and distance in much easier. Did go onto a FM-GP1 win over 1900m. Only run since was last prep in Meydan when 5.5L 4th to Solow. Showeed enough in that run to suggest she has the ability to measure up here. Looks key threat to favourite.
6. Evita Peron: 3YO-LR winner last prep over 1400m on a good ground, did run nicely enough at course and distance in much easier before that. First up run was only fair and i’d want to take on today.
7. Lightning Thunder: 0.2L 2nd last prep in 3F-Gp1 and runs since that throughout prep went backwards. First up run this prep was horrible. Has the ability to run well but very unpredictable.
8. Rizeena: 3F-Gp1 winner last prep at course and distance over this carnival. Went onto run 2nd in FM-Gp1 well beaten by Integral then ran 4th to Kingman in a Group 1 (5 runners) before 0.5L 2nd in FM-Gp1. First up run failed to run it out finishing 10.5L off bragging.
Comments: Integral the clear standout on ratings while Euro Charline has the ability from last preps to measure up if good enough. Key weightings here, Integral beat 3rd favourite Rizeena by 2L last prep and is down 1kg from that run, while Rizeena finds herself up 1.5kg… different prep, different form i know, but Rizeena had just won a 3F-GP1 the previous race beating the 2nd favourite here in Euro Charline at the same weights… Integral ran very well first up in harder company and at the weight scales, justifies the $1.93 being bet.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Integral @ $1.93 for 5 units to win.
Royal Ascot Race 4 – Group 1 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes
2. Cannock Chase: 3YO-GP3 winner, two runs this prep and has ran a 3L 3rd first up when 2nd favourite and then 0.5L 2nd when favourite in a Group 3 last start in a small field. Much harder race here today and i’m willing to take him on against this lot.
3. Criterion: Count him out at your own risk. The word is that Criterion has been training better than ever and looks picture perfect for this run today. His last 8 runs have seen him go very close in Group 1 company at each run, including a key win over The Championships. He never runs a bad race and should measure up to the worlds best. Tactics will be key.
4. Ectot: Won six races in a row from 2YO to 3YO year. Did look stretched last prep by the 2400m so the step back to 2000m does look ideal. For mine, there are still questions over whether he is a genuine 2000m horse, with his best runs clearly seen over the 1600m distrance.
5. Free Eagle: Weld hasn’t risked over-running this son of High Chaparral with just four runs to date. Huge maiden win as a 2YO before failing when 6L 2nd to Australia as a $1.40 favourite. Made up for it with a 7L Group 3 win on return a year later and then ran 1.5L 3rd to Noble Mission on a Heavy track to finish the prep. It’s clear that this guy has talent, but you really do have to feel concerned by the lack of runs coming into a race against the world’s toughest horses. Ratings suggest a career peak should be winning this.
6. Gailo Chop: Good enough run 1.5L 2nd to Solow last start. Solow has franked that form for him today, but i’m I personally wouldn’t be backing Solow next start based on how close a few ‘average’ horses got in that race yesterday. Did win well in 3YO-G2 class last prep and has 3Y-GP3 wins previous to that on his record. Looks a nice type and can win.
7. Spielberg: Group 1 winner in Japan beating home Gentildonna over the 2000m before failing ovr the 2400m. One run leading into this on a soft track was a fail, but the Deep Impact horses are clearly all crying out for good surfaces which is what he needs today. Peak run wins this.
8. The Corsican: One run leading into this today in Listed company and he won fairly easily. Best win last prep was CLS2 class… this is obviously a massive step up and have to take him on here.
9. The Grey Gatsby: Last prep finished off with an outsider chance win over talented horse Australia. Went around as favourite his last two races at $2.50 and $2.10 and ran 4.3L 2nd and 2L 4th. Struggle to see the required progression today.
10. Western Hymn: 3Y-Gp3 and 3Y-Gp2 winner in past preps, came out and won two Group 3 races (just) leading into this. Needs to step up again to measure up, but a place is certainly in his sights.
Comments: Three horse play here for me. Free Eagle is the horse on the ratings that is clear favourite and is in betting for a reason. Spielberg has the career peak run in Japan beating Gentildonna that measures up on the firmer track today and Criterion has the peak ratings, from on-speed, to win this today. I don’t back a Aussie horse just for the sake of it, Criterion deserves to be single figures more than Western Hymn or Cannock Chase does.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Free Eagle @ $4.00 for 2 units to win. Spielberg @ $9.20 for 1 unit to win. Criterion @ $16 for 0.5 units to win.
