Welcome to The Profits Form Guide for Day 1 of the 2015 Royal Ascot Carnival. I had the joy of attending this meeting just two years ago and plan to go back next year if lucky enough. This year we are spoiled for choice with some sensational racing over the course of the carnival. We start of with some of the best races on Day 1 with Able Friend starting the meeting the right way, hopefully. I hope to have my tips up by 9pm at the latest AEST every night and will give you realistic betting plans of how i’m going to tackle the card. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine.
Track Condition: Good (Good to Firm in places)
Royal Ascot Race 1 – Group 1 – Queen Anne Stakes
1. Able Friend: Australian super-star based in Hong-Kong. This prep has won four group ones and a listed race in his last five races, most of which were won under a firm hold. Comes into this race with strong turf form and $8.4million in prize money as a 5yo. Won 8 from 9 over this distance against the best of the best. Price is insane and may never be seen again for the horse this far into a prep.
2. Cougar Mountain: Maiden only winner, thrown into Group 1 races and not disgraced with his best run to date 2L 9th to Sole Power over 1000m. Two runs so far this prep hasn’t shown enough to suggest he could place here.
3. Glory Awaits: Group 2 winner, has failed to measure up at the top level in the past and last start was well beaten off in a Group 3 race, and previous to that, managed only 2nd in a Listed race. Take on.
4. Here Comes When: Multiple Group 2 winner, ran well enough first up when 2nd in Group 2 and then 6th 2.8L behind Night of Thunder last start. Could sneak a place at best here.
5. Night of Thunder: Did everything asked of him first up winning his first open Group 1 race, but this is another level with international stars decending on Ascot. Only horse to ever beat Kingman, he is a serious horse, but i’m not convinced the 4YO is good enough to beat Solow today or Able Friend at equal weights. Two runs to date at track for 2 places.
6. Solow: Took a long time to find his very best, Solow has won six races in a row. Progressing from Group 3 to Group 2 class last prep, he made the extra step up winning a Group 1 in stunning fashion at Meydan on the turf, before beating home a fairly average field last start in France with just 3 runners behind him. This is by far his biggest test to date on turf and at the price, I feel he is massive unders.
7. Toormore: Hasn’t won in his last 6 races, but continues to run very well. Went under as $1.80 and $1.20 favourite last prep (ouch!). Ran very well first up 0.2L 2nd to Night of Thunder, but worth noting his best runs have all been first up in the past. Did beat The Grey Gatsby by 2 lengths as a 3YO in 3YO-G3 which is the same horse that ran 4L 2nd to Solow at Meydan.
8. Esoterique: First up run was very average and best runs the last few preps ahve been in lesser class and deeper into her preps. Just have to take her on here today.
Comments: All roads lead to Able Friend tonight. He has the match fitness on his side and the class edge. If this was being ran in Hong Kong, he would be a $2 pop, not $4. That’s what happens with international horses, Admire Ratki went around $14.50 in our Caulfield Cup. Real Impact won at $20+ first up…. no matter where in the world you go, the international runners are always under-valued by the local markets. $4 is available on Betfair and $1.53 the place. I’m very keen to be betting here to secure a profit if Able Friend somehow gets defeated… i can’t see him falling out to 4th or beyond.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Able Friend 1.5 units to win @ $4.00 & 5 units to place @ $1.53
Royal Ascot Race 2 – 2Y-GP2 – Coventry Stakes
Having been to Royal Ascot in the past and having bet on these meetings for five years now, I’ve come to learn that these types of races really are a crapshoot. If you land one over the carnival, it pays for the rest of these races and if you land two, you end up far ahead. Personally i feel there is very little market edge in playing these races and the late money in these markets generally aren’t a good guider for what will happen. If i was having a minor play it would be on Buratino.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Buratino E/W
Royal Ascot Race 3 – Group 1 – King’s Stand Stakes
1. G Force: Group 1 winner last prep beating Gordon Lord Byron over the 1200m. Last win over the 1000m was in lesser class 3YO grade and best runs since were over 1200m. Didn’t get a run first up and only run 2nd up to date was a win. Only run at track was a fail.
2. Goldream: Won first up this prep in Group 3 class. Needs to make a big jump again today to win after failing in Group 2 last start at Haydock.
3. Hot Streak: Competitive in Group 1 races last prep and won a Group 2 beating Pearl Secret. First two runs this prep were below average and happy to take him on here. Does go well at the track though is worth considering, but both runs came in with much better form lines.
4. Jack Dexter: Four runs too date and has improved each run with a 3rd and 2nd in Group 2 company coming into this. Got unlucky last start, should have won. Has the ability to measure up with a clear run.
5. Justice Day: Four runs this prep and best was a 1.3L 2nd to Goldream. Two runs since poor. One to take on today.
6. Lancelot Du Lac: CL2 winner last prep, went over to Meydan and ran 4th in Group 3 company… looks outclassed on what we saw last prep.
7. Medicean Man: At his best, he can measure up to this, but as a 9YO, you do feel the best is past this bloke. Hasn’t won for three preps and first up run was average at best. Moreira rides but not sure that can even help this bloke today. Place chance.
8. Muthmir: Beat Goldream last prep in CL2 class and then won a 20 runner CLS2 to finish the prep. 3rd up today and won a Group 2 last start in France over the distance. Have to consider based on progression.
9. Pearl Secret: Strong form line horse over the past few preps, always puts in a good run or two. Last start won well in Group 2 company at double figure odds, yet to win a Group 1 though is a concern. Need to find career peak today and never won at track in past.
10. Rangali: First up round absolutely nothing when 10th of 11. Last prep did win first up so that is certainly a concern. Group 2 winner last prep 2nd up over in France and then ran 2L 7th to Sole Power in a group 1. Finished prep running 0.2L 2nd in Group 1 company. May just be having this run a few races too early.
11. Robot Boy: CLS2 class winner this prep, Failed to measure up to group company last prep and this prep. Happy to take this guy on.
12. Sole Power: Consistently inconsistent, you just never know when Sole Power is going to put in a quality run. He certainly has the quality to win this today and the 1000m is certainly his distance. Won 2 from 5 at track… win over Peniaphobia at Meydan is good enough to suggest he still has it.
13. Spirit Quartz: Hasn’t won in over two years (group 2) a issue for this talented horse. 0.5L 4th in Group 1 to finish last prep and ran a fair 3rd last start to Muthmir. Form reads like a cat and i’m happy to bet around him here.
14. Stepper Point: At his best last prep, he put in a dominant 2.8L win over Sir Maximilian in Group 3 class after running 0.5L 2nd to Sole Power at York in Group 1. That was a fair few runs into repp and based on three runs into this prep, he needs a few more runs.
15. Steps: Hasn’t been able to measure up to this class well enough in the past, Listed win was his last over a year ago and has placed just 1 of last 8 runs (listed grade). Take him on.
16. Take Cover: 1.5L 6th in the Group 1 behind Move in time which a fair few have form around that i’m happy to ignore as a form race here. 2L 8th Group 1 to Sole Power at York last prep… first up found nada! Has to find much more… last win Group 2 was okay but never found enough to go close at Group 1 previously.
17. Mecca’s Angel: Here is a talented filly if you have ever seen one making her way appropriately through the grades not being rushed. Last prep just the two runs and wins in Listed and Group 3 class with ease and first up won very well in Group 3 company. Looks a very good chance here today to make the direct step up to Group 1 and win.
18. Shamal Wind: The old girl Shamal Wind has made the trip over from Australia after beating hold Under The Louvre in Group 1 class at Caulfield. Loses to Griante, Bel Sprinter and Vain Queen on the record the previous prep… didn’t beat much first up and beat our 2nd raters (lets be honest) at Caulfield. Has the unique ability to take a sit off them until the final 250m and to let loose which may just be suited to the UK type of racing. But is she actually value at the $9s?
19. Wind Fire: Eye-catching run when bumped at the 250m last start and ran on nicely for 3rd behind Pearl Secret at big odds. Never exactly measure dup in the past at this grade but last start showed a glimmer of talent. Could shock.
Comments: Mecca’s Angel looks a Group 1 horse after putting in a track record performance over in France last start… the track will have more than enough give for what she is wanting and i’m keen to back her today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mecca’s Angel @ $7.2/$2.90 for 1 unit Each-Way
Royal Ascot Race 4 – 3Y-GP1 – St James’s Palace Stakes
1. Aktabantay: 2YO-GP3 winner, His best runs were later into his prep and looks a nice type to progress onwards with his form. Would like to see the first up run today and feel the 1600m first time isn’t ideal against this field.
2. Belardo: Not disgraced when beaten by Gleneagles last start over the 1600m. Won a 2Y-Gp1 quite well last prep so is considered a very good type. Lope De Vega’s are doing good things at the moment, but does he have the 1.8L today to turn it around on GlenEagles? I struggle to find it personally.
3. Consort: Undefeated colt that has won very well both runs to date. Obviously a massive step up in class today, but what he did last start sectional wise suggests he can push GlenEagles at least until the final 100m. Looks one of the main threats.
4. Gleneagles: Don’t really need to say much. Quality horse. Proven at 2 and 3. Last start found a lot of trouble but had the class to win, just. Will probably find a way again today but Make Believe looms as his hardest test yet.
5. Latharnach:Ran well enough first up in a 6-horse field over 1400m when 2nd behind Tupi. Step up in distance and in class, looks out of his league against this lot.
6. Make Believe: Won twice at two, first up run on a heavy track not disgraced 2nd in 3Y-Gp3 but then back to a firmer track won very well in France by 3 lengths beating an 18 horse field. The key rival to Gleneagles here. Really smashed the field in France and has the sectionals to actually win today.
Comments: So here is the thing, I rate GlenEagles and from the barrier he won’t get stuck the rail today, so there really should be no issues in running, but is there any value at all in the $1.70 being bet? Minimal for mine. This really looks a race of three and i’m happy to take 3Y-GP1 win in France of Make Believe from out the front as reason to back him to place here at the $1.92 for two-places paid with Betfair.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Make Believe to place @ $1.92 for 3 units.
