Welcome to The Profits form for Royal Ascot Day 4 on 23 June 2017. Action gets underway from Ascot Friday evening for Australian viewers from 11.30pm. The weather is expected to be sunshine and rainbows with the Good-To-Firm track conditions expected to stand up for the whole card. We have been in form to start the carnival and hope to continue that here today with some nice results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Royal Ascot Carnival Profit/Loss:
Day 1: +4.75 units
Day 2: +4.65 units
Day 3: -9 units
Royal Ascot Race 1 – 1200m – 2YO Fillies Group 3
The quality has gone out of this race in recent years with Timeform ratings going from 128 all the way down to 117 last year for the winner. The pace is expected to be strong.
This looks a better renewal of the race with the favourite Alpha Centauri has already passed last years rating and going close to the previous two years.
Alpha Centauri couldn’t have been any more impressive the last start at Naas when winning by 5 lengths. Stays at the 1200m and looks the type that will handle the expected tempo today. Recorded a 120+ Timeform rating last start and is very well in here.
Black Sails is second up today after a 1 length victory at the Curragh over Another Batt. The time was solid enough on the day, but I’m a little concerned about the horse being 2nd up here today against a horse like Alpha Centauri that has proven at the market and on times. She has to be something special but the 113+ Timeform rating is quality.
Fairyland is a Ward special targeted specifically at this race today. Another of his sprinters that have won over 900m bred by Scat Daddy. She recorded a 110+ Timeform rating on that occasion and has had a break since. Can only expect to improve here. Big chance.
Different League is third up today after winning very well both times over in France on the lead in. This is certainly her testing material and she comes in with a 109+ Timeform rating. Would need to improve significantly again today to beat all these.
Ertiyad recorded a very pleasing 106+ first up at course over 1000m when 2nd behind Mrs Gallagher but then went backwards ratings wise last start down in class winning easily at Haydock on soft. Back to firmer ground and can expect a better effort.
Madeline failed to handle Ascot first up which is a query and then went very well at Goodwood when well backed to score over 1200m. Has to improve onwards again but is one of the chances.
Comments: There really are only two main chances on my ratings with Alpha Centauri and Fairyland filling those two spots. Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if 1-2 others mentioned above do feature and knock them off, but these two clearly own the field and market going into the race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Alpha Centauri 4 units @ $3.40. Fairyland – 1 unit @ $6.80
Royal Ascot Race 2 – 2411m – 3YO Group 2
Another race that has fallen away a bit in recent Timeform ratings going from 133 up to 137 down to 128 and 129 the past two years. I’d expect them to be going for the higher end of recent numbers with this quality field. Pace is expected to be strong.
Best of Days is a lightly raced 3YO that is first up after 9 months off the track. He recorded a 125+ Timeform rating finishing off last prep over 1600m and he clearly has been targeted at this race today. As long as he gets the 2400m, you can expect he will be measuring up to the right Timeform ratings to win.
Best Solution in winning two back at Lingfield in a very impressive way recorded a career-best 129+ Timeform rating. He was fairly disappointing last start at Epsom when only managing 8th behind Wings of Eagles running a 127. In previous preps placed 2nd in Group 1 company as a 2YO and is a Group 3 winner as a 2Yo over 1600m.
Crystal Ocean ran very well for 3rd last start at York recording a 132+ Timeform rating even though he was fairly beaten 3rd on the day. The track today is expected to be a firmer surface which looks a bit of a negative, but he clearly is a nice type of horse. Can we trust the rating? I’m not convinced at the prices.
Intern is a lightly raced colt that stepped up to 2000m last start and just missed in Group 3 company behind Cunco running a 122+ Timeform rating. Up to 2400m you can expect he will improve again 2nd up today, but just how far? Lacked the fighting ability last start which is a concern.
Khalidi like quite a few runners failed to fire a shot last start at Epsom over the 2400m behind Wings of Eagle, but his previous runs were quite impressive. Started favourite many of his runs and won by 5L at Goodwood two back running a 127+ Timeform Rating. Just didn’t back up a week off racing the last start but I’d still have a query here.
Permian Has slowly transformed into a quality colt the deeper he gets into his preps. His Group 2 win at York two back was very solid and he started single figures last start at Epsom when just not running well from on speed in a race won by a swooper. Should be suited by the surface today as long as he has recovered from the Epsom run.
Salouen is an interesting type that hasn’t won in the past 4 starts but continues to run well. Placed 2nd behind Khalidi at Newbury two back and is another that failed in the Epsom race. Not convinced he is a 2400m horse, but he does enter this race with a 129 Timeform rating so has to be respected.
Comments: I’m very keen to take the form around Best of Days first up here today targeted at the race up in class after 9 months off the track. This is a quality colt that will have matured and turned into an absolute beast.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Best of Days – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $13.50/$3.30
Royal Ascot Race 3 – 1200m – 3YO Group 1
Not a load of speed around in the race but expecting a moderate clip to be set. 139 Timeform rating was needed to win two years back while last year was just a 130. We have a horse already rated 139+ in the race so it will be interesting to see how fast they go.
Caravaggio is the clear standout in the race off a 139+ Timeform rating run first up at Naas with 60kg. He is an undefeated Colt by Scat Daddy and oozes absolute class over this distance on any type of ground. It’s scary to suggest that he could go up another gear today.
Harry Angel was equally as impressive as Caravaggio at Haydock the last start winning by 4.1lengths recording a 138 Timeform rating coming off a first-up 129+ when pulled hard and lost to Blue Point. Looks a main danger to the fav.
Blue Point won well first-up at course and distance so no troubles with the course. He recorded a 129+ Timeform rating that day and will have to clearly improve to match the two favourites.
Bound for Nowhere is the absolute unknown Wesley Ward sprinter. Had just two runs in the past and holds a 128+ Timeform Rating with a 6L and 4.3L victory. With 2 months between runs, he will be well suited to the track but has to improve and find another gear.
Comments: It’s hard to consider any other runners in the race as they need to find 3-5 lengths based on previous runs to be considered. Caravaggio is the clear horse to beat and couldn’t have been any more impressive first up settling well and sprinting home when it mattered. As long as he gets a good ride, I have to back him to run down Harry Angel who will be leading for a long way.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Caravaggio to win.
Royal Ascot Race 4 – 1613m – 3YF Group 1
A smaller field and only a moderate tempo expected on pace. 133 Timeform average the past 5 years to take this out.
Recording a 134 and 135+ Timeform rating the past two starts, Winter comes in as the race favourite after two Group 1 wins at Newbury and the Curragh. Measured up on soft and firm ground in the past and looks bulletproof.
French runner Precieuse comes into this race off a Group 1 win at big odds from a 131 Timeform rating on a Heavy track. Previously she had won in 3YO conditions on firmer and placed in Group 3 company both over 1200m, but the last start was the first run at 1600m. She looks the type to improve here and could test the favourite.
Dabayah has been backed as the main chance to knock off Winter today, but only recorded a 116+ Timeform rating first up and 124 Timeform rating to end last prep in Group 1 company. She has shown ability in the past but has to take a big jump here.
Comments: Obviously hard to take the $1.57 about Winter, I could take $1.70. Think the placing battle is between Dabyah and Precieuse and at the $3.50 Precieuse looks a big price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Precieuse to place
