Welcome to The Profits form for Royal Ascot Day 3 on 22 June 2017. Action gets underway from Ascot Thursday evening for Australian viewers from 11.30pm. The weather is expected to see a storm in the morning before a lovely 24’C day in England. We have been on firm to start the carnival and hope to continue that here today with some nice results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Royal Ascot Carnival Profit/Loss:
Day 1: +4.75 units
Day 2: +4.65 units
Royal Ascot Race 1 – 1000m – 2YO Group 2
2YO race that has been a bit down on the ratings in recent years. Average the past 5 years has been 120 Timeform but 114 and 118 the past two years.
This looks to be an above average renewal of the race with two horses in having already run 115 and 117+ Timeform ratings coming into this while four others have scored between 111 and 113 on lead in runs.
It Dont Come Easy is the horse to beat on ratings today having improved significantly last start to win at Musslebrook in impressive fashion off a hot tempo. He will certainly be suited at this track and distance.
Havana Grey and Frozen Angel both come into this race off nice rating runs at Sandown, but I’m certainly concerned with how they will measure up today 4th up having to run career peaks off stronger tempos. They have to be considered, but I’m wanting to bet around them.
Cardsharp won a decent race leading into this but notably didn’t look to handle Ascot too well two runs back.
Nine Below zero and True Blue Moon on form have claims to suggest they can both improve onwards and upwards today to run well.
Santry has been well supported in markets back down in the weights after a solid 61kg win on soft.. back to firmer is an issue for mine.
Mcerin is the horse they have come for from the Ward stable once again. He won very easy over 900m before going close last start over the 1000m. On my ratings he has the ability but clearly has to improve again today and a month and a half between runs should have him at the top of his game.
Comments: There are two ways to handle this race and one would be to back both It Dont Come Easy and Mcerin, but I think the Each-Way play on It Dont Come Easy is the much better play.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: It Dont Come Easy – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.90
Royal Ascot Race 2 – 2012m – 3YO Group 3
A strong race the past 3 years with 132, 139 and 132 timeform ratings (Average 133 past 5 years).
The race this year looks very clear with three main chances while a few others that could improve beyond to run well today.
Benbatl comes in as the highest rated runner (132) in the race running a very respectable 5th in Group 1 company behind Wings of Eagle. Takes the step back to 2000m and back to Group 3 class where he looks very well suited.
Bay of Poets from the Appleby has shown enough this prep to suggest he has to be considered a solid chance today. He ran a close 2nd behind Cliffs of Moher at Chester two back before only managing 7th in Group 1 class in France. He isn’t the most consistent type, but his career peak of 127 has him right in this.
Irishcorrespondent is a horse that has shown a lot of promise in just three runs to date. His best run was a very good win at the Curragh over 1600m on a Good track. He didn’t exactly appreciate the Soft ground last start for mine and that saw him run a lesser race on the day. If he handles the step up to 2000m, he gets the firm track he wants today and looks a good blowout chance.
Mirage Dancer looks to be a really nice type on the up and has been backed accordingly into favourite. Didn’t begin well last start and ran 5L behind Cliffs of Moher at Chester. If he brings his A game today, he certainly can deliver the goods, but I can’t have him at the odds.
OrderoftheGarter ran a career best at Leopardstown three back winning by 3L over Taj Mahal on a wetter track than this. His two runs since his peak haven’t been great and he would need to return to his best to win this.
Taj Mahal has won just 1 from 11 starts and while 4th in a Group 1 last start, he has to run better again today. Yes, they did give him a 130 Timeform rating, but I think he has to improve on that run.
Comments: This is a wide open race. I’m not overly keen to get involved but do have Irishcorrespondent on top from Benbatl.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Irishcorrespondent E/W
Royal Ascot Race 3 – 2411m – 3YF Group 2
In the past has been a very good form race with 135 and 131 Timeform ratings, but the past three runnings have been 123, 137 and 121.
There really aren’t any proven genuine Group class horses in this race today so we are really going off ‘improvement’.
Mori comes in with the top 122 Timeform rating and has been a very good type to this point. Fourth run now in this prep and step up to 2400m should see extra improvement.
Alluringly has been very well backed into favourite today and comes in with a 121 Timeform rating. Two back ran very well 2nd to Enable before being beaten 11 lengths last start in Group 1 class. Have to believe she can improve today.
Coronet ran a 121 Timeform rating two runs back in Group 1 company placing third on soft. Much harder here today back to firmer.
Naughty or Nice ran a very strong 118+ timeform rating last start first time over 2600m and will be rock hard fit today for that run. Looks the type to have probably the most improvement to come here. Fastnet Rock bred and will love the track conditions.
Comments: Happy to place my trust today in Naughty or Nice to take the step up to this class and run a few lengths beyond the last start run.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Naughty or Nice – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $13.5/$3.50
Royal Ascot Race 4 – 4010m – Group 1
The Gold Cup is a true staying test on most occasions and I can’t see that changing today.
This is a race that has been won by Timeform ratings of 130-132 the four years prior to last year when Order of St George won with a 138. This looks to be one of the very best fields in a long time to run in this race and is set to be an absolute cracker.
Order of St George is the obvious class horse in the race having run 137+ and 140 in his past 8 runs, with all over runs recording ratings of 129 or above including the last start as 130+. Recorded a 138 here last year on Soft. His best run in the past was over 2400m when 3rd behind Found in the Arc. Seems to always go well enough at this track and is an out and out stayer. Has been trained on for this all prep.
Simple Verse the past three runs have recorded solid Timeform ratings of 129+, 131+ and 132+, but she has failed to win the last two races and more importantly, this is a big ask stepping up to 4000m today. As much as I think she is a good horse, I can’t have her up to the 4000m today.
Sheikhzayedroad ran a respectable 3rd behind Order of St George here last prep and has never won on a soft track. Back to a firmer track today and he looks very well suited here. He ran amazingly well winning over 3200m here two preps back and both his runs over in Dubai were great behind Beautiful Romance and Vazirabad. At his best, he can contend.
Big Orange is an out and out stayer and he will most likely lead them around here. He disappointed in UAE but was never suited on the wet track and was just really a forgive run. His first-up win over 3250m was in a strong 130+ TImeform rating. Concern that his best run ever has been over a shorter distance than this though.
Comments: When all is said and done, Order of St George is the proven stayer and is well suited by rain expected to hit the track early in the morning to take a little sting out of the track. He just needs to run up to past runs to measure up to this grade and going near his peak wins this.
Confidence: 90%
Strategy: Order of St George – 5 units @ $2.04 to win.
