Welcome to The Profits form for Royal Ascot Day 2 on 21 June 2017. Action gets underway from Ascot Wednesday evening for Australian viewers from 11.30pm. The weather is still very warm right now in England and we are expected to have a firm track until expected storms hit Thursday. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Day 1 saw some very nice results with our two best bets landing and Barney Roy in the feature saluting for us taking down the $1.50 favourite in Churchill.
Profit/Loss: Day 1: +4.75 units
Royal Ascot Race 1
Last five runnings of this event have seen a Timeform rating win of 129 average with 127 low and 131 high.
Dream Castle comes into this race with a 134 Timeform rating, far above the average needed to win this and looks ideally suited back down to 1400m today coming off a great run 5th behind Churchill in Group 1 class the last start. Back to 1400m and looks ideally suited.
Daban ran nicely to win in this grade two back at Newbury before running 3rd behind Winter over 1600m last start in a top time. Looks suited by the track conditions but has to improve on the last start run to win here again.
Le Brivido brings a 133 Timeform rating into the race coming over from France after a close 2nd in Group 1 class on a softer surface. The ground is certainly a bit of a query today to see if he can repeat that effort, but he did look very strong the last start. I also just have a concern over the step back in distance as he looks the type to want the 1600m.
Top Score was only 0.4L off Dream Castle last start behind Churchill and comes in with a 129 rating. He has the potential on his best but he is certainly not genuine enough to back with any certainty. That being said, you certainly get the price required.
Winning Ways won well last start at the course and distance and with a harder tempo pushed along out front today i’m expecting he can run well here.
Comments: I want to get involved here by backing a few runners here that standout on my form and ratings.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Dream Castle – 2 units @ $4.60 to win. Winning Ways – 0.5 units @ $17.00 to win. Top Score – 0.5 units @ $26.00 to win.
Royal Ascot Race 2
Wesley Ward has dominated this race the past two years with Lady Aurelia and Acapulco putting in Timeform ratings of 130 and 141 with the previous three winners being 120, 124 and 123. So it’s no surprise his runner today is a short priced favourite.
Lady Aurelia came into this race last year with a 109+ Timeform rating and ran a 141.
Happy Like a Fool comes into this race from the same stable with an 115+ Timeform rating run as the lead in 2 and a half months ago over 910m with a 4L victory.
On the form in this race, the only horse I can see improving off their last start run to contest the favourite here is Heartache who recorded a very strong first ever run 111+ Timeform rating. It was an elite looking win and we can expect her to measure up here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Happy Like a Fool – 3.75 units @ $2.65. Heartache 1.25 units @ $7.40
Royal Ascot Race 3
Very consistent ratings required to win this race in the past with a 132 Timeform average with 133, 133 and 134 the past three years.
There are several runners that come into this race far below what is required and need to improve significantly, while there are certainly four horses in the race that have not only measured up, but beaten that.
Usherette comes into this race having failed to go close to her best runs in the past three runs, but four and five back runs were more than good enough to be winning this. Yes, the last start she ran the best she had all prep losing a Group 1 by 0.1L in France and she steps back to 1600m today while also finding a firm track.. she certainly has the ability to measure up and win but does have to improve again while others don’t.
Smart Call is one of the most interesting runners. Group 1 winner in the past including a 2000m win over Legal Eagle, her best has been seen over slightly further with Group 1 wins over 1800m and 2000m, but she has a 132 Timeform Rating coming into this. Her worst run in a while was first up on a wetter track when only running 3rd behind Blond Me. A month between runs and she should be back to her best and Moore takes the ride.
Qemah won at course and distance last year as a 3YO getting her first Group 1 win before going on and recording another G1 win in France. Her best runs in the past have clearly come on firm tracks which are a positive but her first up run a month and a bit ago was really well below what you want to see for a horse expected to win today. The positives though are that she has recorded a 135 Timeform rating and 132+ in the past, suggesting the consistency in the past.
Laugh Aloud couldn’t have been any more impressive the past two starts at Epsom and Goodwood and is hardened fit for this test today. Back to the 1600m looks perfectly suited and looks a key chance to fight out the finish.
Comments: I’m not overly confident in having a huge bet here, but there are two runners over the odds in Qemah and Smart call that I’d consider if betting here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Qemah and Smart Call
Royal Ascot Race 4
The feature race of the day the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. Average Timeform rating of 142 but a low 138 last year won by My Dream Boat.
Only three runners in Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Ulysses have run the ratings required to measure up and win here today and the market has them between $3.8 and $4.3 in the market.
Highland Reel was a huge run first up at Epsom considering he wasn’t even in the country 60 minutes before the race. The horse was really worked up and rushed, but recorded a very strong 141+ Timeform rating. His best twice in the past has been 143 and 5 of his last 8 runs have been 140+. The only query is the step back to 2000m today.
Jack Hobbs is legitimately the real deal and as a 5YO now has been lightly raced in recent years but has clearly shown the ultimate top grade ability. Just like Highland Reel, the step back to 2000m today is the one query on this horse today, but he is coming into this race today off a 143+ Timeform rating and has a 144 peak on record.
Ulysses is a lightly raced 4YO trying to win his first Group 1. First up this prep he showed he is the real deal with a very good win over a quality type in Deauville and recording a 140 Timeform rating. If he can improve onwards today he can measure up.
Comments: Very happy to take on Ulysses against these two top class runners. Can’t split Highland Reel and Jack Hobbs and happy to back them both on the firm track.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Highland Reel – 1.75 units @ $3.80 to win. Jack Hobbs 1.5 units @ $4.20 to win.
