Welcome to The Profits form for Royal Ascot Day 1 on 20 June 2017. Action gets underway from Ascot Tuesday evening for Australian viewers from 11.30pm. The weather is very warm right now in England and we are expected to have a firm track until expected storms Thursday. I’m looking forward to a great carnival and while i’m very confident we will get some solid results on Day 1, it’s not a sprint so we need to make sure we are ahead a the end of it all! As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Royal Ascot Race 1
A race i’m very keen to be betting into today. There are only a few horses that have gone close to the ratings required to win this today and only one that has reached the ratings of the past 4 years in Ribchester.
Dutch Connection has in the past shown the ability to measure up to this class with a Goodwood win in July of last year, but three runs since have been significantly below this grade. First up today after 227 days off and is worth consideration.
Lightning Spear two back put in an effort worthy of being considered here, but Ribchester has always had his measure in the past.
Mutakayyef is the real unknown potential winner if he can produce a run as good as three back behind Postponed and Highland Reel over 2000m. At the 1600m distance though, he hasn’t rated close enough in the past.
American mare Miss Temple City Three and Five back has run races worthy of considering today but she clearly has to improve onwards.
Spectre is still a young 4YO and has put in some solid runs in the past, but ratings suggest she needs to improve 2+ lengths on Ribchester to win this.
Ribchester is the clear standout. Won 2 of last 4 with a loss to Minding not a disgrace. The past four runnings of this race has been won by a horse able to run a 140 timeform rating and no other horse in this race has broken 140.. while 3 of Ribchesters last 4 runs have been 140+ with a 145 last start on record and 143 three back on a firm track.
Comments: Very keen to bet up here for the best bet of the day with Ribchester rating 6 points ahead of the rest and only having to match the runs presented in 3 of the last 4 runs. Very keen.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Ribchester – 5 units @ $1.95 to win
Royal Ascot Race 2
This is a very wide open race where several runners could be considered to improve and win.
The past timeform ratings for this race suggest none of the runners coming into the race have put a performance in on the track even close to what is required to win this today. De Bruyne Horse has run a 117 the past two starts and this is the highest rated run coming into the race, but the average of the past five years winning this race is a 132, with 124 being the absolute lowest, so taking a horse that didn’t improve from run to run is a negative for me.
There is one key standout and that is the very talented 2nd starter Arawak for Wesley Ward. This is a trainer year in year out that targets these races perfectly. The US runners are allowed advantage early on in life due to laxed laws on what is legal drug wise over in the USA and that helps a load. I was impressed with Arawak’s first up 7L win and can see huge improvement to come. The trackwork leading in has been A Class.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Arawak – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.85
Royal Ascot Race 3
This is a race with a load of talented runners engaged. The Average timeform rating of the winner the past five years has been 133, with the last two being 129 and 128 with the highest being 138. Quite a few runners have reached this peak range in their careers but there are three standouts that have gone above and beyond which is needed here.
Marsha is the clear top pick for me. On a Dry track, Marsha ran a career peak of 140 timeform rating backing up off a 134 the run prior. Marsha is very well weighted here today and looks the one to beat.
Signs of Blessing ran a career peak on Heavy last start with a 136 Timeform rating. Unfortunately, the horse in the past hadn’t gone beyond 131 on dryer tracks and that is what we get here today, the horse also looks more of a 1200m horse than 1000m on best runs in past, so i’m happy to take him on.
The obvious danger is Lady Aurelia. Huge 7L win at course and distance two preps back over 1000m on a soft track. Her next two runs after that didn’t go close to the career peak but a run 2 months ago in the USA over 1100m showed us that she was back to her best with a 134+ rating.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Marsha – 2 units @ $4.70 to win. Lady Aureila – 1.25 units @ $4.20 to win
Royal Ascot Race 4
This is one of the most interesting races of the day.
I expected i’d find myself backing Churchill here at the shorts and while the ratings suggest he is the best horse in this race, to the eye, I can see something like Barney Roy improving past him here.
There isn’t a lot of depth to this race, I agree with that, but Lancaster Bomber, Thunder Snow and most importantly Barney Roy are dangers to the favourite.
Comments: I couldn’t get involved here at the prices. Barney Roy and Churchill are the right prices in their markets.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Just watch and expect a close finish
