1. Famous Seamus: He hasn’t won in a long time and only ever once first up from 10 first up runs, but he always pus in his all and has been competing against the very best in previous preps compared to this field first up which is certainly a few steps below. You don’t win $1.1million in prize money for being a second rater, have to show him the respect he deserves even out the back.
2. Messene: Loves to tease punters and was very hard to rate last prep after a very good first up run but fails after that. Best run to date this prep was certainly last start when behind the leaders and ran home very well for 3rd behind Royal Descent and Pornichet who are clearly Group 1 horses. Dryer track suits and will be on speed from positive barrier.. handles a very fast tempo. Will be peaking.
3. Strawberry Boy: Old mate has always been hard to catch but won his last two runs of last prep up at Doomben. Two okay trials but going off last few preps the 1300m may just be a little too short and he is wanting the 1600m.
4. Amanpour: Group 1 winner over Catkins and Noble Protector over 1600m last prep thanks to a nice leaders rail bias at Randwick. Proved to be a handy type with a 2nd to Catkins in the Emancipation and all that jazz, but this defiantly isn’t her best distance so have to consider if effective enough on this.
5. Ninth Legion: Painful horse to follow. Won first up last prep but then ran 2nd the three times after that. Trial was only fair but is certainly suited by first up distance and rails run suits.
6. Heart Testa: Very nice run first up at double figure odds coming off good trials. Will be taking a sit off the speed today… best runs in the past over 1200m and not sure what to make of the distance chosen… has the ability to run well and first up showed that.
7. Aomen: A long time between drinks. Will be sitting closer to the speed today than first up and more suited by runs over further than first up. Has ability to run well based on last preps Liverpool result.
8. Winx: Surprisingly hasn’t accepted for the Caulfield Cup has to throw up a few concerns for this run first up. Very talented type with the Guineas and Oaks win up north when she didn’t exactly have to beat much… but she is top class material. Certainly needs further to find best but can win at this distance.
9. Decision Time: Horrible run last start when well beaten by some classier animals. Won a Group 3 previous start and may just have not been suited by 1000m? Hard to back here on that last run.
10. Boss Lane: Every chance last start to beat Decision time but simply couldn’t get past. Have to take on having seen that run and thinking others better here.
11. Nostradamus: Bookies took the short priced favourite on first up and got it all. Well beaten and had a great ride. Can’t see the improvement needed to beat this lot.
12. Vashka: Untapped potential in this one folks. Tough run to the line 3rd behind Decision Time and Boss Lane but i think has the most upside going forward… just not sure this is the race for him.
13. Sons of John: Best runs have been over much further as in 1600m+.. certainly a good Hawksbury Cup win to finish last prep and the runs coming in have been good trials… just can’t suggest he is good enough to beat all of these in this class over this distance… but geez he is weighted well enough to cause a shock.
15. Turbulent Jet: One of those in the race i’m very happy to take on at the ratings.
Comments: I’m shocked to see Winx a $4.20 favourite in this race and Vashka the second favourite… yes the weights do help both runners but i think they are both being over-rated by the market. Winx will need to have improved again over the break to win at this dsitance in this race for mine while Vashka needs another run to measure up to these for me. Messene gets the dream run today and rates the best coming into this off that last start huge run behind Group 1 horses and is a great E/W price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Messene E/W
