1. Press Statement: No disgrace at all first up off two decent trials when sat just off the speed and hit the line strongly, but was no match for Exosphere coming over the top. Back to dryer track today but not sure that is what he WANTS, but he does have a 2Y-SW win to his name at Doomben on a Good track which does give confidence. Step up to 1400m the key.
2. Exosphere: Golden Slipper 2nd favourite, two strong trials and jumped a huge $5.50 first up coming over the top of the field with a very dominant win. Step up to 1400m should be no issue, but does have to prove he can handle the step up in distance and still have this same turn of foot. A good ride would see him not on the rail.
3. Gold Symphony: Beaten everything thrown at him the last two starts and only Jalan Jalan has got the better of him this prep out of 36 horses. Distance step up should be no issue, but i do think he is a step below the top group in this race.
4. Rageese: Easy kill as a short priced favourite in a maiden last start. Hit the line well enough first up with this a goal race. Last prep 0.8L 2nd to Pride of Dubai a very good run for a 150k priz emoney in the Sires as well hard to ignore… has talent to win this. Tricky barrier.
5. Shards: Hasn’t done much wrong in the past for us to think he isn’t high enough quality to measure up. Ran a close 2nd to Press Statement three runs back, wona fter that and then won last start also with strong wins… very tough type but can he tough out the full 1400m today is the real issue.
6. Sebring Sun: Hit the line nicely when further back than expected. Obviously a decent run but has to improve again today to beat all of these home and can’t afford to jump poorly.
7. Let’s Make It Rain: Last win on heavy. Next two runs were decent but well beaten two back and last start in easier company couldn’t get a win..
8. Holler: Looks the lesser chance of the O’Shea horses, but we know how that can go sometimes! Did win a good race as a 2Yo but hasn’t won since – last start run wasn’t good enough to suggest a win here.
9. Speak Fondly: Good enough win first up but certainly took it to the next level with a very strong win on speed last start at Randwick over the 1200m. Step up to 1400m looks ideal today and certainly a top class horse on first two runs this prep.
Comments: Four horses stand out in this race. Rageese is the clear value in the race at $18+ odds. Proved with the 2nd last prep to Pride of Dubai that talent is in his blood, but we really don’t have any real track of exactly how well he is going. Press Statement has been well backed all week to a point where i’m actually wanting to take him on at the prices. I’m confident Exosphere has him covered majority of the runs they both get here and the price just isn’t value. Speak Fondly was a massive run last start and maps as the leader on a rail you have to expect to be suiting the leaders. Exosphere is the X factor in the race… clearly the best horse in the race but runs at Rosehill can undo even the very best horses. I have to side with Speak Fondly on the Each-Way at a very reasonable price!
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Speak Fondly E/W
