1. Bounding: Massive win first up at Caulfield beating Guineas 2nd placed Rich Enuff with ease. Back to a firmer track shouldn’t be much of an issue but certainly did find her best on the Soft5/6 surface. Good barrier to get a sit just off the leaders. Clearly the horse to beat. Same turn of foot on the opposite feet?
2. Catkins: Feels like she has been around forever, but Catkins is just a 6YO and yet to measure up to G1 companmy.. is this her prep for that? Failed to get a win up in QLD which is certainly a concern coming into this after her freshen up… a bit too much racing with a lack of a full spell?
3. Slightly Sweet: Progressed nicely through the grades last prep to win a G3 at Randwick to finish it all off over the 1400m. 1200m certainly not the ideal distance for her IMO… can and will run well but finds one too good.
4. Peeping: Well backed favourite in a small 6 horse field first up off a very nice trial and only just got the cash on what appeared a biased rail, so it was a good run in good time. Has ability but will need to find much more than that first up run.
5. Echo Gal: Expected to push forward today. Significantly good win three runs back at Randwick in fast time on a Good 4 track leading all the way and winning super well. Just beaten two runs back by Amicus late and then last start at Wyong ran poorly on softer ground. Back to dryer ground here and maps as leader but won’t get it easy that’s for sure. Repeat of 3 back would be competitive.
6. Fine Mist: First up today after a decent enough prep which included BM-80 wins at course. Others preferred on class factors.
7. Mihiri: Hawkes stable runner who trialled well enough but first up run wide no cover fell out of it very quickly. Dryer surface and Easier run should help today, but need to improve significantly to beat all of these.
8. Fiftyshadesofgrey: Finished off nicely enough first run in after a freshen up and did win at course and distance three runs back, but best recently been on wetter surfaces and in easier class. Big test.
9. Supara: Promised alot but failed to deliver on the track. Had no run last start at course and went to the line untested coming off a few good trials. Think she has the ability to run very well today even from the poor barrier and looks the knockout chance.
Comments: Boundings clearly the horse to beat here. That win first up was massive and the field beaten was very classy. Catkins certainly deserves to be 2nd favourite in the market but i couldn’t touch at the price based on previous two runs. Supara is the massive value in the race not tested first up giving us a big price today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Bounding to win. Much smaller bet Supara to win.
