1. Complacent: HUGE first up win. Looked to be no fluke either considering the horse in a Group 1 winner as a 3YO over Criterion. Up to 2000m today also looks to even suit better and he looks to get a sit just off the speed or outside the leader today. Horse to beat.
2. Who Shot The Barman: Not the worst return first up behind Complacent. Never got close but was a good run heading towards a Melbourne Cup. Pass again today.
3. Beaten Up: Continues to run well without winning. Last start was poor due to wet surface it seems. Take on today.
5. Gallante: Disappointing run first up when didn’t show alot. 3YO Group1 winner over in France on wet tracks which he will get today and the 2000m should be sufficient. Expect sharp improvement IMO.
6. Grand Marshal: Stable believes he needs further. Here for the run heading onto a Melbourne Cup.
7. Junoob: Ran home nicely enough last start and 2000m is his deal today. Can run well. Barrier the issue.
8. Opinion: Probably like a few others looking for further, but he does have good results over these distances including Group 1 win over 2400m on record. A while between wins.
9. Bonfire: Too good in the Grafton Cup last start on firmer tracks. Has ability and goes well first up. Obviously be on speed.
11. Precedence: Old mate didn’t find a lot first up. Up to 2000m obviously helps but better as he goes over further.
13. Chance to Dance: Very good strong win first up beating The United States. Ashe gets up over further he will improve, 2000m probably his go at best as well. Better form on firmer tracks but handles wet.
14. Tremec: Dead last first up. Better seen over further than this in last few preps.
16. Preferment: Won’t be winning this heading towards a Melbourne Cup.
17. Magic Hurricane: Strong win last start at Rosehill and Silverball won since to frank the form. Should be suited by distance and looks a nice type here.
18. Bohemian Lily: Well beaten first up. Big jump in distance to her best distance.. big class jump this but has shown ability.
Comments: About 5-6 runners with 0 chance in this, but a few clear chances for mine to win it as well. Complacent has to be backed today based on that first up run, it’s hard to suggest he isn’t going super. Gallante is a massive price with $101+ being bet here.. expect sharp improvement.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Complacent to win. Smaller bet on Gallante to win.
