1. Protectionist: Don’t expect much today, but keep it on notice that he won his maiden over 1600m as a 2Yo so he can win at this distance… but he is clearly being trained on for one target, the Melbourne Cup distance and this is too short.
2. Pornichet: Certainly a tough run first up and not exactly in the best ground, but he fell out of the race disappointingly from a spot that suggested he should have had every chance. I have massive questions over his quality as a horse based on the first two runs where if he was a top class horse, he should have found a way or gone closer.
3. Hooked: Expected leader today. Continued to kick on and kick on first up in the Tramway for a big win! Goes well on wet tracks and step up in distance helps. Questions over if he has the ability to win a race like this.
5. Kermadec: Obviously a very very good horse as proven by the strong Doncaster win last year with no weight. Train certainly helps his chances today and he seems to fly through it. Good horse and should be peaking today on a track that should give him every chance with so few runners.
6. Sweynesse: Had to do a lot of work first up in the Tramway and ran okay but this is the extra step up and off that run i’m more than happy to take him on.
7. Hauraki: Ran well last year in the Derby 2nd to Mongolian Khan. Over a similar distance in the Phar Lap lost 2L to Winx. Certainly was a soft run first up but not convinced he is this level and best on dryer.
8. Royal Descent: Flat run last start after a strong win first up. The wetter the better for RD and will certainly be running on well from an on-speed position. Never won at this distance in the past is a bad stat but obviously goes well at track and in conditions.
9. Lucia Valentina: Oh my girl! She ran a stunner first up from out the back! She hit the line solidly and any extra distance increase suits her. Looks well on track to go one better in the Caulfield Cup. Can win!
10. Kirramosa: Hit the line solidly first up with Lucia Valentina. Think her best is clearly over further than this and will find her best as she goes on, just not sure she has the class to beat them all in this grade at this distance.
Comments: I’ve keen to take on Pornichet today in this race – jury is still out for mine on the horse being top class. The two standouts for me are Royal Descent and Kermadec. Royal Descent gets a lovely run on speed while Kermadec will be storming home from the back – both love it wet also. Backing both horses here at time of writing we can get $1.97 for either horse to win, and that is value all the way down to $1.70.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 1 unit on Kermadec 0.6 units on Royal Descent. This gives us roughly $1.97 odds on best prices around at time of writing for either horse to win.
