2. Hot Snitzel: Surprised freshened up long into last prep with a win at Doomben on a Good track. Ran well enough in the main race on speed the next start as well. Goes well on wet tracks on precious runs and have to respect on previous prep.
3. Rebel Dane: Hard one to judge. At his best he is a top class sprinter but we haven’t seen that horse the past two preps managing 3rd at best. Decent enough trial and stable believe he is back to his best. Clearly worth considering him knowing he goes super well on the wet and the wetter the better.
4. Ball of Muscle: Best runs in the past were seen over this distance or slightly further in the past and on wetter tracks. No disgrace on wetter, but as proven by first up run, he clearly has more fitness to come than what was shown in that race.
5. Delectation: Made his way through the classes last prep and while he didn’t measure up with a very low weight in the Newmarket compared to Terravista, he won on a Heavy 8 the next start in the Arrowfield for a big score. Runs after that suggested he clearly finds his best on a Heavy track and in lesser company. Trials have been okay.
6. Rock Sturdy: A while between wins and the last win was a very nice win but over 1500m not 1100m. Last run over 1200m was first up last prep and a big fail… wanting further.
7. Shiraz: I couldn’t be more impressed if i tried at the last start run at course over 1000m. Did all the work with no cover and found the line strongly. Harder class today but the step up in distance and rain will suit. Can win.
8. That’s A Good Idea: Take him on at your own risk. He’s a good horse! Ran well first up last prep for a strong win at nice odds before a close 2nd to Ball of Muscle. Has the ability and trials sound.
9. Atmospherical: Running on late first up but never looked in the race. Hard horse to catch and best runs on dryer surfaces. Need to improve even at weights.
Comments: Terravista is the class runner in the race and Hot Snitzel has to be respected on the last prep runs, but the two that stand out for me today are Rebel Dane and Shiraz with the rain around. Shiraz looks to have gone to the next level and from a very handy barrier, i can see him getting the perfect run. The pace will be on and Rebel Dane will certainly have the last word if good enough.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Shiraz to win. Smaller bet Rebel Dane.
