Welcome to The Profits preview for Day 2 of The Championships from Randwick on 8 April 2017. We came through Day 1 of the Championships as victors with our Best Bet and Best Value getting up to have us well infront for the day. We now look forward to the Day 2 card where it looks a little harder, but there is a load of value on offer throughout the day. I’m very keen on the chances of Saracino who will be rolling forward with the favourite Global Glamour and simply finds lengths on a wet surface and is ideally suited back to this distance today. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Randwick Race 5 – Saracino – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.40
Next Best Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Hartnell (Favourite out market – no Winx) – 2.5 units to win @ $2.45
Best Value Bet
Randwick Race 2 – Screamarr – 1.25 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Randwick Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7, 17, 18
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1 – 1600m – Adina Apartment Hotels Ferhill Handicap
1. Muraahib: Never looked the type to handle the Heavy tracks and that proved on the Heavy 9 when ran nicely but never handled the track. Up to 1600m today is ideal for this progressive type. Maps perfectly just off the speed with a sit.
2. All Too Huiying: Two runs this prep and failed to fire on either occasion for mine. Still a maiden.
3. Toga Picta: Every chance last start in easier company at Mornington when led all the way and just wasn’t good enough on the day on a track that was suiting those positioned on speed. Looked a horse better suited with a sit two and three back but can he really make the extra step up today after the last start disappointing run?
4. Coulthard: Snowden runner that won well as favourite last start at Newcastle on a Soft 6. The stable have taken their time with this colt and stepping up to the 1600m looks ideal.
5. Medal Kun: Maiden winner on heavy 9 two runs back at Hawkesbury but was fairly defeated by Coulthard last start at Newcastle. Has to improve on his form.
6. Ace High: Four runs to date and failed to get a win on the board. Three runs this prep over 1100m to 1400m and hasn’t been within 2.7L of a win. That being said, I thought the effort last start against the pattern was nice enough. Trialed well behind Takedown.
7. Zeppelin: Three runs this prep. Two back was 0.2L off Coulthard at Newcastle and then last start well beaten 3L in maiden grade over the 1200m. Obviously wants the 1600m today but clearly has to improve.
8. Earth Angel: One run to date and won a maiden quite well at Ballarat from off the speed. Nicely bred type and can’t be discounted from the Hayes yard.
9. Whispered Secret: Maiden winner at Newcastle first up over 1350m. Cummings yard and will improve with extra distance. Can run well.
10. Yorkshire Rock: Two runs to date and hasn’t been close at all to a place. Has to improve to even feature here.
Comments: I’m convinced Muraahib is a top class horse and is crying out for the 1600m distance today. The key threat looks to be Toga Picta, Whispered Secret and Coulthard.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Muraahib to win.
Randwick Race 2 – 1400m – TCL South Pacific Classic
1. Echo Effect: Four runs this prep but best he could handle was 2nd. To be fair, that 2nd behind Man From Uncle in the G2 Hobartville was a very good run. Last start in the Doncaster prelude was obviously up against it on the heavy it seems. Back to a dryer track should see him have a better time out front.
2. Bezel: Failed first up this prep when pulled up with thumps and then last start pulled up after the start with respiratory noises. Obviously, this horse isn’t right on what we know. On previous preps I’d be considering the horse here. Tongue Tie on.
3. Peacock: Three runs this prep and hasn’t shown enough to get within 3.4L of a victory. Had a break between runs and trial into this didn’t reveal much. Obviously better than what we have seen and has a 1400m win over Acatour from last prep.
4. Bryneich: 4.5L winner in BM-70 grade first up but has failed to get closer than 2L in the three runs since. That being said, the two back run wasn’t bad behind Man From Uncle and it wasn’t bad either in the Canberra Guineas. Does need to improve again.
5. Generalissimo: Not terrible first up and then ran nicely in the Eskimo Prince behind Man From Uncle. Not suited the last two starts on heavy.
6. Hussterical: CL1 winner first up and then a nice 3L win over 1400m at Rosehill in a 12 horse race in easier class. Then well supported at Kembla Grande last start failed to show anything. Trialed well since and I think we just have to forgive the run at Kembla.
7. Alliterate: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gotten close to a win. Hardest test this prep and one I just have to take on.
8. Rosa Carolina: Two lead in runs were not great but back to CL2 class last start got the easy win. Looks an okay type of horse on everything we have seen in the past, but others are preferred.
9. Ubatuba: Two wins in a row heading into this prep and then 3rd in the Albury Guineas when went around as favourite. Only beaten 0.3L. Obviously has ability.
10. Siren’s Fury: Albury Guineas winner last start over Ubatuba. Failed to fire in G3 company the previous start though. Hard horse to get a handle on.
11. Red Hearts: Newcastle maiden winner heading into this. Look several runs to get through the grades. Others preferred.
12. Apiata: Very well supported type last start at Sandown in BM-64 grade when just beaten late in the picture. Previous runs measured up behind some nice types in Group grade, but was never good enough to get the win or get really close. Probably over the odds compared to a few others here.
13. Screamarr: Too far back last start at Mornington in the big race on the day for 3YOs. Got held up for runs and then came home well. Really think the drop back to 1400m is ideal and this horse will run well from the barrier and off the low weight.
14. Travancore: Maiden winner last prep. Struggled to win the first two runs this prep in BM-67 and 65 grade. Others preferred.
Comments: There’s only one horse I have my eyes on in this race and it’s Screamarr bringing a touch of Victorian form to the race. He was the hard luck story last start in the 100k race at Mornington when ridden for luck and finding none after having to go back from the wide barrier. Today, he finds a more positive barrier to position midfield at worst and gets in with a very low weight of just 53kg.. the step back to 1400m looks ideal and he is proven on a soft surface.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Screamarr – 1.25 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Randwick Race 3 – 1200m – IG Share Trading Percy Sykes Stakes
1. Formality: Failed in the heavy going of the slipper. Previous two runs on dry tracks were very strong with a g3 win and 3rd in the Blue Diamond off a solid early tempo. Maps on speed from the inside barrier but every chance they take a sit behind the leader today and ride for luck.
2. Teaspoon: Went forward in the Slipper and fell out of it very quickly. Previous start 3rd in G2 on heavy 8 and G3 winner prior to that in easier race. Has to improve onwards and upwards here to measure up.
3. Shoals: Two starts two wins. Last start very well backed at Flemington down the straight when beat a nice type in Ploverset and Garrard. Maps nicely just off the speed today.
4. Serena Bay: Won nicely enough first up at Goulburn in easier grade of race. Previous prep did win a 150k race at Risehill behind running 5L off She Will Reign (only 1.2L behind Diamond Tathagata. Obviously has ability and handles it wet.
5. Villa Carlotta: Failed on the heavy tracks the past two starts. Previous start won a Maiden at Randwick over 1000m. Huge jump up in class needed.
6. Almanzora: Won a 2YO race heading into this as favourite on a Heavy 8. Trialed well before that also. Obviously has ability and from a good stable but even with just 53kg this looks a big ask against such quality horses. Looks well under the odds for mine.
7. Didn’t Mention it: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this. One to simply take on.
Comments: This is an interesting race to open the meeting. Shoals comes in with some very strong Flemington form that I know will be measuring up while Formality has some solid form lines also and looks well over the odds. I have to go to the Melbourne form here over the Almanzora and Serena Bay form lines.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing both Shoals and Formality to win.
Randwick Race 4 – 1400m – The Provincial Championship Final
Just like with the Country Championships last week, i’m not even going to consider looking at this race and it’s outside of my range.
Randwick Race 5 – 1200m – Arrowfield 3YO Sprint
1. Saracino: Looks a massive price on this card and I can’t understand why they are offering us $14. Comes into this from a nice barrier where he will push forward and sit either behind or outside of Global Glamour on speed. He comes here off a Group 2 win on soft over 1400m in New Zealand in a very strong time. Previous best runs have all been in fast times including a previous prep 12000m G2 win at Flemington on a soft track in sub 1.10. Looks beautifully suited.
2. Impending: Well fancied horse from the Godolphin yard, but he has failed to fire on all three occasions this prep on Good and Heavy. Yes, the last start run wasn’t too bad on the Heavy 9 when 3.8L 3rd, but this is a big step up again. Will be out the back running on as always.
3. Defcon: Looks a blowout chance at the odds, but it’s clear the horse has had troubles this prep having had four trials over the past 6 months trying to get back onto the track after 210 days off. Did win a G3 last prep over 1200m. Out the back running on.
4. Derryn: Out the back in the TJ Smith and didn’t run too badly finishing 6L 8th. Previous start won the Darby Munro. Will get a dryer track today and while he has been running well this prep, he wasn’t able to beat home a few easier horses on a good track three back. Maps out the back from the barrier and will make it tough.
5. Glenall: 2nd first up on Soft 7 from on speed. Next start ran better in the Fireball 2nd behind Samanatha and last start in the Galaxy was well defeated with a low weigh 5.5L 4th. Certainly has the ability to match this class and got a good barrier today in 6 to sit 2 pairs back off the rail.
6. Tactical Advantage: Has had a long prep this time in and may just be coming to the end of his prep instead of peaking? Obviously last few runs have been good but I’m just not sold on him here.
7. Crafty Cop: BM-72 winner two back with a big weight before fairly beaten last start behind Derryn. Has to improve.
8. Tribal Wisdom: Disappointing run two back at Flemington but back to 1200m at the Gosford Guineas on the soft track ran well and won. Step up again here.
9. Into Orbit: Won first up in BM-64 grade before a nice enough run 2nd off a slow tempo 1200m. Then went on to run 4th behind Benz and Derryn and failed last time out in the G2 behind Foxplay over 1500m. Back to 1200m today.
10. Star of Monsoon: Failed to fire first up behind Derryn, Crafty Cop and Tactical Advantage. One to take on.
11. Global Glamour: Favourite today. Won very well in the Lightfighter at course and distance three runs back and was no disgrace over 1400m the next start in the Surround. Ignore the run in the Coolmore and never worry about a 1600m back to 1200m drop. Will lead and be hard to run down. Trialled strongly heading into this.
12. Spright: Looked a nice type in her first prep winning three from three including the G3 down the straight at Flemington. Beaten fairly first up behind Global Glamour and Foxplay and then didn’t handle the Heavy 9 over 1400m. Needs to have trained on to beat Global Glamour today from the barrier.
Comments: Global Glamour is certainly the horse to beat on paper but I really feel Saracino is more than good enough from on speed to beat GG on the day. Glenall looks one to certainly be watching and Spright + Derryn from back in the field have the ability to come over the top late.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Saracino – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $15/$4.40
Randwick Race 6 – James Boag’s Premium Australian Oaks
1. Lasqueti Spirit: Beaten 12L in The BMW but was a perfect lead in run for mine back to this race today back to a dryer track. She simply ran it along far too fast out front the first 1200m and just couldn’t sustain the speed required the final 1200m of the race in the BMW. Expect them to jump to the lead and push the tempo, increasing it every 200m until about 1000m out when the horse is rolling along and just keeps rolling. Clearly one of the horses to beat and will put many out of their comfort zone.
2. La Bella Diosa: G2 winner first up over 1400m beating some nice types in Omei Sword and Global Glamour over the 1400m. Failed next start in the Coolmore and pulled up with coughing issues before failing to show much over 2000m in the Vinery either. Struggle to suggest the horse really wants the extra distance? 1600m G1 winner last prep in NZ.
3. Bonneval: Three wins in a row this prep back home in NZ going form G2 to G3 to G1 class winning the Oaks on a soft track. Settled well back in the NZ Oaks 2nd last and liked the true staying test – made a mid-race move in the Oaks to get from the back and that won’t be allowed today. Will love the track today and also love the distance on offer. You can watch the NZ Oaks win here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXKyRC_8_Nk
4. Nurse Kitchen: Flashed home for 2nd last start on the Heavy 9 in the Vinerystud and obviously looks well suited stepping up to the 2400m today. G2 winner last prep over 1600m and looks to have a large amount of ability. True stayer.
5. Harlow Gold: Looked to have the race wrapped up last start to my eye and then just failed to find the line the final 200m in the Vinery. Not sure if it was the distance that got her or not, but she should clearly get the 2400m but this will be a tough test again with Lasqueti Spirit setting the tempo like in the Oaks back in the Spring.
6. Devise: Worked hard to get a nice position in running in the NZ Oaks and got there for a very nice spot in run. Got out and going 800m to go but never pushed until final 400m. Fought it out with Bonneval but just wasn’t the better horse on the day. Maps very well to get an on speed position and may have to be considered.
7. Lubiton: Failed to get a win in 4 runs this prep but finished off well enough in the Vinerystud for 5th to have to be considered back on a dryer surface today. Looks the type that shouldn’t have an issue with the distance. Won’t get it all her way out front though.
8. Waking Moment: 0.1L winner last week in the Adrianknox as a maiden horse jumping out of the ground to surprise. This is another step up again and has to improve onwards with the step up in distance again.
9. Perfect Rhyme: Ran a strong race last start in the Adrian Knox 2nd behind Waking Moment. Has shown some form in the past but 4L off Lubiton in previous engagements.
10. Wheal Leisure: Strong win three back at Moonee Valley and then two back ran very well 3rd behind Parthesia and Wheal Leisure. Failed last start though in handicap class over 2000m at Flemington and is simply a forgive run. The Tasmanian Oaks run has her well in here.
11. Cambage: Poor last start in the Adrian Knox. Previous start couldn’t win a CL2. Hard to suggest here today.
12. High Impulse: Big drifter last start in the Adrianknox and ran accordingly. Had trialed well previously heading in off a good 1800m win. Hard to suggest on current form lines.
13. Lamma Hilton: Another well beaten in the Adrian Knox. Failed to fire on all previous occasions in easier. Struggle to see the extra improvement.
14. Zambesia: Old mate Carey loves to throw a curve ball in like this filly. Been horrible and hasn’t measured up in maiden grade yet put into this group race. Good luck.
Comments: I’m going with the on speed runners with the solid tempo on speed here. Lasqueti Spirit to lead all the way is the top pick while Devise will be sticking on strongly. Wheal Leisure is the horse I can really see measuring up at odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lasqueti Spirit E/W
Randwick Race 7 – 2000m – Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes
1. Hartnell: Has been well beaten all prep on the heavy tracks with a 8th and fairly beaten last start 2nd in the Ranvet, but did still run a good 2nd from out the back. Will be ridden quietly again today from barrier 1, hopefully right off the leader. Hartnell’s peak runs have been when Slow early, medium middle, fast late sectionals. Winx’s best is when fast, fast fast.. as she is a superior horse. A look at the current field reveals a lack of speed horses in the race, suggesting we could get slow/medium/fast. Hartnell comes in off a very testing Heavy 20 run over 2000m. Winx comes in off a 1400m/1600m/1500m run campaign on very wet tracks.. off a peak run of career over 1500m suggesting this won’t be a peak over the 2000m.. Winx has Synthetic hoof filler first time coming into this run. Query over the horses hoofs never ideal!? Godolphin stable are convinced Hartnell will improve lengths back to the soft surface on what is clearly a peak run. Think Palentino at Flemington. On the above, yes, i can make a case that if Winx settles 4 back the outside and Hartnell box seats 1 out 1 back or 1 back the rail, and the inside 2-3M is the place to be on Saturday… Hartnell could test Winx.
2. Exospheric: Beaten 8.3L last start but ran solidly 3rd behind Jameka and Humidor. Previous run beaten by the same horses in the Aus Cup. Has the ability to measure up and run well at odds.
3. Happy Clapper: 0.5L 2nd in the Doncaster from on speed when just couldn’t close the gap on It’s Somewhat. Gapped 3rd.. was a very good run and this horse is clearly flying. Back to a softer track is ideal but there is a query over the distance.
4. The United States: Back to a dryer track today is ideal after a hard fought 3rd behind Hartnell in the Ranvet last start. Previous runs this prep were good but not great. Looked to improve last start for sure. Ran well here last year 2nd in this race.
5. Sense of Occasion: Ran a blinder 3rd in the Doncaster after coming off last prep running 2nd in a Gosford Cup. Obviously well suited by the low weight and didn’t mind the heavy track either. Dryer track and further… never won over this distance in the past.
6. Harlem: I really liked his run first up in the Blamey but I thought he was heading into something longer like the Sydney Cup. I’d be surprised to see him run better than third over this distance on his form from overseas.
7. Singing: French import that hasn’t really shown anything since being in Australia and didn’t show much on the lead in run in the Ajax.
8. No Doubt: Doncaster Prelude 2nd heading into this off a 5th in the Ajax. Well out of class.
9. Winx: Probably ran a career best last start demolishing them over 1500m on a heavy 10 in the George Ryder. Back to dryer should suit better. Synthetic Hoof Filler first time the only obvious query as well as the step up to 2000m after running 1400/1600/1500 this prep.
Comments: Winx is obviously the horse to beat and $1.10, but on my ratings should be closer to a $1.25 chance especially when we account for the first time hoof issue requiring hoof filler. All we can ask for as viewers is Hartnell to be infront of her with 400m to go and to make a race of it!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 9
Strategy: Hartnell (Favourite out market – no Winx) – 2.5 units to win @ $2.45 (WA TAB + Centrebet + William Hill)
Randwick Race 8 – 3200m – Schweppes Sydney Cup
1. Who Shot Thebarman: Top weight. Only Group 1 winner in the field if that tells you just how poor the field quality is this year. Never won from 12 starts at the track. Runs this prep have been average at best.. not terrible not great. Obviously has been targeted at this all the way.
2. Libran: Sydney Cup favourite last year, Libran was riding Group 3 and Group 2 wins heading into race but just found a horse too well weighted. Hasn’t got within 4.5L of a win the last 4 starts suggesting he just isn’t in the same form.
3. Almoonqith: Just ignore two back run when was on medicine that affected the run IMO. Last start in the Mornington Cup was too far back and ran on solidly with 60kg as a lead in to this. Up to 3200m and looks well suited. Clearly has the ability based on Melbourne Cup 6th and Sandown Classic 2nd. Don’t dismiss.
4. Tally: Solid win in the Mornington Cup when not dug out to try and lead.. instead.. .was ridden worse than midfield and asked for a strong final 500m effort and won nicely. First time ever at this distance and I can’t see the horse getting the distance well.
5. Assign: Strong win last start on the Heavy 9 over the 2000m. This is the type of lead in this stable has always done that has worked in the past to these types of races. Query for mine over the 3200m though based on the failure in the Melbourne Cup. Has ability.
6. Chance to Dance: Not the best horse going around, but also not the worst either. 4th in the Adelaide Cup from out the back and expect them to ride him similar today. Can run well and feature in the exotics.
7. Big Duke: Killed them in the Chairmans lead in on the heavy track. I really feel the horse will be better suited back to the dryer tracks as well which we will get for him today. Up to 3200m is a query though.. but he travels so well that he will get a perfect spot from barrier 5 and he hard to hold out.
8. Annus Mirabilis: Failed last start in the Mornington Cup but that was expected back to the 2400m as a run between Cups. Adelaide Cup winner and was a nice ride by Bayliss. Jockey change to Mallyon today. This looks a much tougher field here. Will obviously run well at the distance though that’s for sure.
9. Mister Impatience: Interesting runner. Last prep G2 Wellington Cup winner over 3200m. Has failed on both occasions over this distance in G1 grade though. Well enough suited at the weights though.
10. Penglai Pavilion: Godolphin import. 3600m winner at Newmarket so this horse stays no issues. Word from the stable is they most likely will be going forward and pushing a strong tempo to suit thier horse. Win wouldn’t be a shock with 52kg.
11. Kinema: Well beaten the past few runs this prep but that isn’t a surprise at all on a wet track. Back to dryer but really is calling out for a Good track to find his best. Others preferred.
12. Pentathlon: 9th last year in the Melbourne Cup.. gets the distance but isn’t exactly a top class horse. Comes into this with average at best form.
13. Vengeur Masque: Very interesting prospect. Last prep 2nd to Francis of Assisi over 2600m and ran 8th in the Caulfield Cup. Good run 2nd from on speed in the Mornington Cup as the lead in and really looks suited up to 3200m.
14. Polarisation: Hasn’t won in a while. Clearly stays the distance and had a solid 4th last prep with a solid 2nd the prep before that. Is he good enough?
Comments: Big Duke is clearly the horse to beat and gets in well at the weights, but I do have a query at the distance at this price. If i was to play, I’d be going with Almoonqith who will be loving the staying tempo set out front by Penglai Pavilion.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Almoonqith E/W
Randwick Race 9 – 1600m – Coolmore Legacy Stakes
1. Silent Sedition: G1 winner last start over 1200m and this is a big jump back up in distance. That being said, I still personally feel this horse is a 1400-1600m horse not a 1200m sprinter. Went well on the soft track in the Coolmore. Have to respect even up the top of the weights. Maps on speed from a good barrier.
2. First Seal: Had the race run to suit last start in the G2 Sunshine Stakes but French Emotion ran past her. Obviously has to improve on previous runs to be featuring here.
3. Heavens Above: Group 1 winner last start in the Coolmore from back in the run storming home to claim Silent Sedition late. Similar weights today and looks perfectly suited here from barrier 5.
4. Real Love: They bet $51 in all-in betting which is a bit crazy. Didn’t run too well in the Blamey last start but wasn’t terrible. Run 1.3L 5th 3-wide the trip in the Peter Young behind Stratum Star and Humidor is the form line I like to look at and follow into this. Has to be respected from a good barrier.
5. Zanbagh: Won well in G2 company last start at Rosehill on the Heavy 9. Was decent but never measured up at the top level two back when 6th beaten 3.6L behind Silent Sedition and Heavens Above. Did change the tactics last start though to be fair which made the difference. From 16 will have to push forward you would imagine.
6. Dixie Blossoms: Strong front running win three back at Randwick.. but has gone much further back the last two starts and failed to finish off. Hard to trust on two back run. Was huge last start. Need luck to get a good spot from this barrier.
7. Danish Twist: Close 3rd in the Coolmore behind Heavens Above and Silent Sedition. Back to 1200m last start and ran poorly which is no surprise. Back up to the 1600m.
8. Rising Romance: Not suited last start by the sit and sprint style of the race in the Sunline but still ran okay. Previous start hot tempo well suited and ran well. Can go well here off a hot tempo. On speed.
9. Euro Angel: Fairly beaten 2nd in the Millie Fox before failing in the Coolmore.. not bad in the Emancipation but never in it really and failed in the Doncaster. hard to see backing up here.
10. Elle Lou: Waller stable runner. Won two in a row including G3 Aspiration before failing to fine anything over 1900m in the Eopona. Has to return to best form. Others preferred.
11. Jessy Belle: Very unique horse that won a strange race to end last prep in G2 company. First up found very little.
12. Abbey Marie: Unbeaten heading into this prep but failed to win all three runs this prep. Lame last start. Hard to trust off a lameness issue here. Take on.
13. Extensible: Wide run last start in the Emancipation and still ran well enough considering. Previous start 2nd to Spectroscope was good with 60kg. Respectable type that can run better than last start suggests.
14. Pure Pride: Inside barrier will certainly make it hard to get a strong run for this talented mare who is expected to go back in run. Will need some luck going through runners. Runw as good last start at Flemington.
15. Alaskan Rose: Doesn’t win often and hasn’t for a long time. Last win was in easier and hasn’t gone better than 3rd since. Four lead in runs have been average.. nothing special.
16. Diamond Made: Nice enough run first up over the unsuitable 1300m and found the line strongly. Last start horrible in the Emancipation. Might be better suited today on dryer.
17. Foxplay: Got back and ran on well for a massive win in the Phar Lap last start at Rosehill. Good but nothing special 4th in the Vinerystud G1 last start. Back to 1600m ideal today and will be running on.
18. Oregon’s Day: Strong win last start in G3 company at Moonee Valley and will come into this under-estimated by the market. It was a huge and impressive win and she deserves to be considered. Barrier only issue.
Comments: This race looks tailor made for Silent Sedition who will be on speed today and may very well get away with a very easy run out the front.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7, 17, 18
Strategy: Silent Sedition E/W
Randwick Race 10 – 1200m – TAB Sapphire Stakes
1. Tycoon Tara: Two trials heading into this run today. Last prep she won a Group 2 beating Dixie Blossoms over 1400m and then was placed the next start behind First Seal in G2 Company. Did win a G3 over 1200m also beating Le Romain of all horses and prior to that on the G2 Missile over 1200 beating subsequent G1 winner Rebel Dane. Goes well first up and likes it wet.
2. Artistry: G3 winner first up beating off Dothraki on the day. Step up in grade here to harder company and up to 1200m. Last prep won G3 over 1400m at Flemington and G3 placed at Randwick. Respect this class.
3. Secret Agenda: Every chance first up but was really just too far off them. Made .nice ground covering a load of ground but too much asked of her.
4. Ocean Embers: Sent over to Tasmania and got a win over there in G3 company two runs back before failing to measure up to the pure G1 grade of the Oakleigh Plate. Certainly better suited back in class here and has a nice soft track form line. Gets a long way back from the barrier.
5. Thames Court: Hugely disappointing run in the Coolmore and steps back to 1200m today where she has shown her best runs this prep. Not convinced she finds her best on a wet track though is an issue.
6. Zestful: G3 winner first up this prep beating some okay types when she had a low weight. Good run 3rd on the Heavy 10 the next start at Randwick before being well beaten last start. Back to dryer will suit. Obviously has claims.
7. Savoureux: First up this prep in G3 company was horrible on the Heavy 10 at Randwick. Have to forgive and back to soft where better suited. Hasn’t won in a long time. Big ask this in this class.
9. Tempt Me Not: Cummings stalbe runner. Trialled well firs tup but then failed ot handle the heavy 10 at Rosehill. ANother trial heading into this.. clearly oging well and just needs to find a dryer track today which she will. G3 winner in the past.
10. Denmagic: Good run first up when close 2nd behind Dal Cielo… much harder races the next two starts when 2.6L 4th and well beaten 14th in the Coolmore. Steps back to sprints where better suited and comes in off a nice trial. Barrier suits.. ride for luck just off them leaders.
11. Ravi: Last start listed winner at Eagle Farm. Tow trials heading into this were solid enough. Big jump in class and never measured up to this in the past. Has the ability.
12. Hieroglyphics: Bm-93 winner three back. Two back G3 2nd beaten 0.1L on the Heavy 10 by Rocket Commander. Failed to handle the track last start. Don’t dismiss.
13. Missrock: Easy win firs tup at Flemington in much easier grade. Last start in the Galaxy failed to fire with a low weight. Others preferred at this distance.
14. Unequivocal: Last prep fairly beaten behind Ravi and hard to see the form reversal. Could’t suggest a place here on past form.
15. Painted Firetail: Always well backed Godolphin runner but has only really won a BM-72 grade race in the past and failed to measure up in anything else since. Huge ask today.
16. Leami Astray: Massive class jump. Hard to suggest a place based on previous runs.
Comments: Ugly wide way to go out but this is a very open race. Tycoon tara has the form on the board to support E/W. I really feel Hieroglphics is big overs in the race while Zestful is not being respected enough either. Could add another 4 runners to the Quaddie than I have.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 12
Strategy: Tycoon Tara E/W
