Welcome to The Profits preview for Day 1 of The Championships from Randwick on 1 April 2017. Well the day is finally here and we have a 10-race card with 4 Group 1 races on the day with the TJ Smith and the Doncaster the two headline acts. It’s the most open Group 1 race day I can remember in a while with not many short-odds favourites on the card at all. Very keen on our best bet in the Big Duke today while Tulip looks hard to hold out and Jon Snow could just steal the Derby from the front. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Randwick Race 3 – Big Duke – 3.5 units @ $2.60 to win
Next Best Bet
Randwick Race 6 – Tulip – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.75
Best Value Bet
Randwick Race 7 – Jon Snow – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.45
Randwick Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 15, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1 – 1100m – Widden 150th Anniversary Stakes
1. Property: Unseen on the wet tracks to-date but on breeding you would have to believe he will handle it. Step back to 1100m well ideal and this is a top class horse. Looks well over the odds.
2. Condor Heroes: Maiden winner at Warwick Farm first up this prep and was a nice win on the day. Clearly has some ability and will run well.
3. Mr Kylin: Outsider of the field as the only run we have seen from him is over 1000m in maiden grade and it was just average.
4. Spencer: Heavy track 5th first up this prep in maiden grade. Last prep failed to fire as well.
5. Solar Patch: Trailled well enough into first up maiden run at Rosehill but failed to fire. Hard to suggest here.
6. Dissolution: Two trials leading in to his first ever run. Race plates on front and hind and blinkers on. Went well enough on heavy in trials. This is a tough ask first ever run but he looks a nice type.
7. From Within: Good 2YO win first up over Invader and Chauffeur before failing in the Magic Millions. Freshened up heading into last start when didn’t exactly impress on the Heavy track in the Riesling. Trialed well between runs.
8. Sheikha: Heavy 9 track winner on a maiden last start. Didn’t beat much on the day and this is a step up in class again.
9. Alizee: Race favourite. Beaten favourite in maiden grade first up when held up for runs. Trialed nicely on Heavy 8 and then 2nd to Tulip last start in G3 class on Soft 7. Have to respect here.
Comments: This is a tough way to start the punting day. Alizee, Form Within, Condor Heros, Sheikha and Property are the five you need to choose from here. Property is the best horse for mine on runs to date, but there is a question over the horse on this ground coming off a poor run. From Within is also questionable on a wet track for mine. Alizee is the proven horse and brings strong Tulip form into the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Alizee and Property.
Randwick Race 2 – 1600m – China Horse Club Carbine Club Stakes
1. Veladero: On speed from an inside barrier. Blinkers go on. 1900m back to 1600m looks more ideal than last start when fell out of it quickly. Hasn’t gone close any runs this prep is an issue and not sure the horse is going well enough.
2. Eusebio: Three wins in a row including the Canberra Guineas as the lad in run. Won very easy and has trialed on heavy leading in also and looked good. Will run very well from back in the field.
3. Flying Jess: Magic Millions 3YO Guineas winner last prep. First up found nothing over the 1400m and step up to 1600m today. Never seen on wet.
4. Theanswermyfriend: Quality lead in win last start at Flemington in hot time leading all the way. Has trialed previously on a Heavy track and looked suited which isn’t a surprise for a High Chap. Have to respect.
5. Acatour: 8th in the Randwick Guineas when just didn’t go on the Heavy 10. Two back fairly beaten in the Hobartville. Is he really going well enough to figure?
6. Mr Sneaky: Against the bias last start ran down Theanswermyfriend which has been backed up as good form lines since. 0.1L 2nd in BM-64 grade on a Heavy 8 in the past so does get the surface.
7. Violate: Awkward barrier to get a nice spot in running. Two runs in this prep and has failed to fire on both occasions.
8. Screamarr: Maiden winner on a wet track two back before well beaten at Mornington last start. Hard to see a place.
9. Zenalicious: Beaten 9L on Heavy two back and then last start improved significantly on the Soft 6 when only run down late by Foxplay. Has to be considered.
Comments: Some very talented types in this race. We have the Melbourne form lines of Mr Sneaky and Theanswermyfriend against Zenalicious with Foxplay form and Eusebio with the classy Canberra Guineas form. I can’t look past Theanswermyfriend but I do have Eusebio in a close 2nd.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: TheAnswerMyFriend to win
Randwick Race 3 – 2600m – Schweppes Chairman’s Handicap
1. Big Duke: Won last start on the heavy 10 at Rosehill in a protest over Our Century… 5 others in the race were 12L off him. Looks a dead set mud lark and over the 2600m looks suited.
2. Kinema: Very disappointing on the heavy the past two starts. Would need it to be Soft to be considered.
3. Aloft: Got the win last start at Flemington with a big weight and comes into this quite well. Never really seen a wet wet track but did run a close 2nd over in the UK in Group 1 company on a Soft track. Not outclassed.
4. Pentathlon: Been competing over in NZ and just hasn’t been measuring up. Never placed on a heavy and looks outclassed here also.
5. Alegria: Good run 2nd two back on heavy 10 in the G3 when behind Elle Lou but then last start as a well supported favourite just was very one based over the 1900m. Up to this distance on wet is questionable.
6. Polarisation: Goes well on soft tracks. Certainly has nice enough ‘figures’ to be considered a winning chance, but best will be found over 3200m or further in the Sydney Cup.
7. Rock On: 2500m Soft 5 winner over in NZ last start and looks nicely enough suited in this grade of race. Has to obviously improve but can’t be ignored.
8. Vandancer: Very strange nomination if you are asking me (you are). Yes this horse does find 2000m but unknown at 2600m and was well beaten on heavy last start over 1900m. Did handle a Heavy 10 in early March..
9. Shalmaneser: Failed on heavy the past two runs. Previous form isn’t even good enough to consider here either.
Comments: While Aloft has to be considered a serious chance today coming off that very solid win at Flemington, it’s well hard to look around Big Duke who looks a solid bet here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Big Duke – 3.5 units @ $2.60 to win.
Randwick Race 4 – 1400m – Newhaven Park Country Championships Final
I don’t go down to this level of class therefore it’s not acceptable for me to give you a tip in this race.
There are 9 other races on the card so it doesn’t bother me skipping this one to grab a beer and watch on.
Randwick Race 5 – 1200m – The Green Guys P J Bell Stakes
1. Scarlet Rain: Didn’t handle the Heavy 10 last start. Had a Heavy 8 trial since when did handle that. Two back run was solid with a big weight. I think she can run well here.
2. French Fern: RUn last and 2nd last the past two starts after fairly beaten 6th the run before that. Back to 1200m today but clearly not going anywhere near as well as last prep.
3. Raiment: Has been very well backed today after a dominating Heavy 10 win last start at Rosehill by 3.3L over some good types in Samantha and Nancy. Very well suited again today and will be hard to beat.
4. Missrock: Didn’t handle the Heavy track last start in The Galaxy. back in class and grade here but still won’t appreciate the ground.
5. Brugal Reward: Nice win in the Typhoon Tracy two back before failing hard last start at Flemington between runs. Unknown on this track surface. Bad barrier.
6. Sweet Sherry: Listed grade winner last prep over 1200m. First up was a good run in the worst part of the track and will be better today. Goes well enough on wetter tracks and a win wouldn’t shock.
7. Samantha: Good win two back in the Fireball but then stepped up to the G3 grade and found one just far too good in Raiment. Obviously meets the same horse here and will need to find lengths to turn the cards. Will still run very well here.
8. Prompt Response: Two trials heading into this today including a strong heavy 8 win. Best in the past is good enough to suggest the improvement will come here to measure up.
9. Modern Wonder: G3 2nd in the typhoon Tracy leading in before failing down the straight over 1400m. Back to 1200m and has run well on a Soft 6 previously.
10. My Country: Failed to fire on the Heavy track last start behind Derryn and a few others. G3 2nd last prep on a good track at Caulfield. Has ability but struggle on wet.
11. Manaya: Two runs on soft leading in and they weren’t bad runs but this is a huge step up and ask.
12. Zumbelina: Heavy 8 trial win heading into this today over 900m. Finished off last prep winning 4 in a row up to 1400m. Clearly has ability and has been set for this.
13. Conchita: Trialled well heading into this prep but two runs on heavy and was just simply outclassed. Hard to suggest here especially from Barrier 21.
14. Invincibella: Another Waller runner first up here. Only average trials heading in… but has won twice on soft in the past. Not sure she is up to this level though.
15. Gibraltar Girl: Strong Heavy 10 trial win coming into this… but the form last prep isn’t top class stuff. I can’t see it and have to take her on.
16. Exocet: 3YF-SWP winner last prep and 0.9L 4th in the G2 Classic which was behind Nurse Kitchen and I Am a Star which is a good form line race over 1600m.. 1200m today though look short of the horses best. Will love the wet.
17. Medaille: Maiden winner. Couldn’t win a BM-66 to finish last prep. 150 days between runs. Nice heavy trial run heading into this but tough to see from the barrier and previous form.
18. Smart Amelia: Maiden winner last start by 0.3L. Heavy 10 maiden was well beaten previous start. Not for me.
19. Rosa Carolina: CL2 winner last start on Soft 6 heading into this. Well beaten the previous start on heavy. Run before couldn’t win BM-67.
20. Diddums: Not terrible last start but fairly beaten on the day on Heavy 8. Previous runs just don’t have her in this well.
21. Blowing Kisses: Failed to fire in previous preps.. couldn’t win a CL1 last prep. Good trial heading in though on heavy. Did beat Invincibella in maiden first prep.
Comments: Winning form is good form. Raiment won’t be going backwards today and the horse couldn’t have been any more impressive winning last start. Looks well in here at the prices.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Raiment to win.
Randwick Race 6 – 1400m – Inglis Sires’
1. Chauffeur: Obviously showed us last prep that he is a very nice type when almost running down Houtzen in the MM, but his Black Opal run was plain at best and then didn’t show much on heavy last start in the Slipper.
2. Menari: Looked the value of the Golden Slipper and ran gamely and only lost a place on protest. Looks the type that will enjoy the wet once again, but I do have a big of a query over the extra 200m today.
3. Diamond Tathagata: 2nd to She Will Reign Three runs back over the 1000m… then won the Skyline G2 since on the Heavy 8 and ran 7th in the Golden Slipper on the Heavy 10. Back to another wet track today and should appreciate the 1400m.
4. Veranillo: Listed winner four runs back at Randwick on a Good track. Three runs since have been solid without winning. Fairly beaten in the Golden Slipper from out the back but found the line okay. Blinkers off.
5. Trapeze Artist: Huge, strong win in the Black Opal but just didn’t seem to handle the Heavy track in the Golden Slipper and still found the line okay for 6th. Looks well suited again if we get a heavy 8 range track.
6. Gunnison: Went away from the Slipper via the todman where he won well and has trialed well since on the Heavy 10. Looking to improve up in distance again today and looks well suited.
7. Single Bullet: Nice enough run in the Skyline on the Heavy 8 behind Diamond Tathagata… good Soft 7 win in the Pago Pago and just didn’t handle the ground in the Slipper which isn’t a surprise. The dryer the better for him.
8. Invader: Solid win two back at Randwick on the Soft 7 before going well 2nd behind Gunnison on the Heavy 9 from the back of the field. Good barrier today but will need to get past a wall of horses.
9. Summer Passage: NZ Group 1 winner over the 1200m on a Soft 5 track. Snitzel bred. a different form line that has to obviously be respected as the top sprinter of recent times over the ditch.
10. Aspect: A much better run last start at Flemington in the Sires on a Good track after failing to fire in the Blue Diamond and Chairmans. Big query on wet track. Likes 1400m.
11. Sircconi: Got the win last start at Flemington and trailed well enough previously on a Heavy track. Will be on speed and likes a strong tempo. Change of rider doesn’t exactly help his chances today though up to this grade.
12. The Mission: G3 winner last start on the Heavy 9 over 1400m at Rosehill. Smashed a solid field that included strongly fancied runners in Astoria and Muraahib. Has to be considered.
13. Astoria: Smashed them on a heavy at Warwick Farm in the lead in to last start but was fairly beaten off over the 1400m by a better horse on the day last start. Hard to see the win here.
14. Frolic: Probably the run of the race last start in the Golden Slipper going back to last from the wide gate. Drawn wide again and will repeat a similar track i’d imagine. Hit the line solidly and will have no issues with 1400m and will really enjoy the wet track once again.
15. Tulip: Savaged the line last start in the Golden Slipper 3rd when wide no cover the trip. Up to 1400m and covered that amount of ground last start in comparison to the winner and Frolic on the day. Much better barrier today and will get cover from 4. Expect a better run today and will be hard to hold out.
16. One More Honey: G2 win over 1200m on the Heavy last start beating Teaspoon and Arctic Angel. Form lines of the race are average at best in comparison to others. Hard to have from barrier.
17. Feng Chu: 3rd fairly beaten in the Sires. Was a fine and acceptable run, but this doesn’t look like a Sires winner to me on runs.
18. Memento: Well beaten 3rd behind Tulip last start. Hard to suggest even a place for this maiden.
19. Merchant Navy: Average maiden winner. Struggle to suggest.
20. Spencer: Didn’t like Heavy last start. No thanks.
Comments: Expecting Menari and Tulip to run well again while Gunnison looks an improver. Summer Passage brings the NZ form and has to be savered in the Quaddie. Tulip is the horse i’m loving here and from a good barrier, we get the right run on a track that will suit.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tulip – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.75
Randwick Race 7 – 2400m – BMW Australian Derby
1. Prized Icon: Fairly defeated last start behind Jon Snow at Rosehill, but it was a very much improved effort on the previous week when he didn’t enjoy the deep wet Heavy 10. He will improve up in distance again here but is 4 runs for 0 wins on heavy tracks remember.
2. Gingernuts: NZ Derby winner on a Good surface two back and then back to 2000m won the Rosehill Guineas strongly beating Inference, So Si Bon and a few others. Will be out the back again today you would imagine from the barrier, but in NZ Derby was midfield.
3. Inference: Strong lead in runs. G1 1600m win on heavy when got a gem of a ride. Goes well on heavy goes well over distance but this is the first attempt over this distance and will be a tough track. Even from a good barrier, expect to be out the back again.
4. Jon Snow: They ran it along in the NZ Derby two back when Jon Snow was not disgraced one bit from midfield next to Gingernuts in running and ran home for third. The pace was strong that day and it was a tough race for all. This race on the other hand is all in the hands of Jon Snow who looks to be the only real leading chance on paper. I really liked the heavy track effort at Rosehill last start and if it’s hard to makeup ground on the day, Jon Snow will be very hard to get past.
5. So Si Bon: Will be sitting midfield once again today from a middle barrier. Had no cover last start and ran very well behind Gingernuts beaten 2.4L. Been set for this one race today and looks a big chance.
6. Hardham: Strong win in the Alister Clark last start over 2040m at Moonee Valley from a midfield position and covered a load of ground to claim Farson and Ruthven in commanding style. Don’t be put off by this stable – just look at Nurse Kitchen last week. Looks well bred enough to be going well on a wet track. Most importantly, Hardham showed the win of a true horse wanting 2400m. Big chance if handles track.
7. Anaheim: Respectable run 4th from out the back behind Gingernuts, Inference and So Si Bon… but didn’t get close. Personally feel the horse does want the extra distance, but I can’t see him turning the tables.
8. Rushven: May very well be suited by the Heavy track. Has won on Heavy in the past. Every chance last start at Moonee Valley in the Alister Clark but wasn’t very strong through the line. Others preferred for mine.
9. Harper’s Choice: On speed and well beaten last start fairly by Gingernuts and quite a few others. Looks to be on speed with Jon Snow here today. Others preferred.
10. Hollywood Mo: Just hasn’t measured up to the top level the past two starts and even up in distance here I can’t see him finding enough to feature.
11. Impavido: Blinkers off but not sure that will do enough? Out the back and ran home just okay… up in distance probably should help…. but can he really find 5+ lengths here?
12. Righteous Mate: Horrible in G2 last start over 2000m. Previous starts didn’t convince me of anything here either. Take on.
13. Shine Tak Star: Couldn’t win a CL1 at Newcastle last start. Just have to take on.
Comments: Six main chances in the race for mine and they are in the top numbers of the race. I really feel this race is setup for Jon Snow to dominate the race from the front and the main chances will be giving Jon lengths into the straight. I liked the last start runs of Hardham and So Si Bon who I feel will be big dangers at double figure odds.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Jon Snow – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $8.50/$2.45
Randwick Race 8 – 1200m – Darley T J Smith Stakes
1. Chautauqua: 3rd behind Winx and Le Romain in the George Rider over the 1500m and really wasn’t disgraced one bit on the day. Dropping back to 1200m the right idea for mine here and will be very hard to beat if the pace is on which it looks like it will be. Only negative is obviously on the heavy track it may be hard to make up ground again today.
2. Malaguerra: G2 Aust Stakes winner and then fairly beaten over the 1400m in the Orr. Darley Classic winner also. Unseen on heavy tracks in the past. Goes okay on soft. Maps nicely on speed.
3. Terravista: Lightning winner and then failed in the Newmarket. Goes well on all surfaces and has to be considered a nice chance here. Barrier doesn’t help chances though.
4. Rebel Dane: Likes the wet tracks. G1 Manikato winner last prep. First up wasn’t terrible or great in the William Reid and will appreciate the heavy.
5. Japonisme: An absolute mudder but hasn’t exactly liked it too wet in the past. Fair but not suepr in the William Reid.
6. Fell Swoop: Just not a genuine G1 winner on previous preps runs. Always runs well and goes close but can’t get there. Never placed in 2 starts on heavy.
7. Spieth: Unknown on heavy but goes well on soft. Disappointing last start in the Newmarket after a close 2nd in the Lightning. Poor barrier hurts chances and will have to go back.
8. Voodoo Lad: Country Champs third on a Heavy 8 at Randwick before moving to Weir and did win on a Heavy 8 at the bool in BM-78 grade. G1 2nd in the Newmarket.. but i’m not sure this is a horse that is actually a sprinter and may be wanting the 1400m more? Has been backed though today.
9. Rock Magic: Has won in the past on a Soft 7 and looks the type of horse that would have no issues on the heavy tracks. Very strong run last start as the lead in with the William Reid 4th when never got a run until it was too late. Nice barrier today to sit midfield and come home strong.
10. Target in Sight: Magic Millions sprint winner before spelling.. had a trial heading into this but this is a massive ask. Never won on heavy but isn’t the worst on the surface.
11. Tivaci: Unseen on Heavy and never won on soft. Yes, he has been running nicely in the past over these distances but he doesn’t look this class.
12. English: Hugely disappointing run in the Galaxy finding nothing coming off a Heavy 10 win that was very good. Struggle to suggest here.
13. Astern: Concerns from the stable that he won’t be great first up and will be btter suited next run. Never run on heavy but 2/2 on soft. Good barrier today and is clearly a top class horse.
14. Russian Revolution: Absolutely flying and won the Galaxy well with a low weight. Well up in weights here the big issue but you just know he will enjoy the heavy track today and Jungle Edge has franked the form since.
15. Derryn: Nice heavy track win heading into this in much easier grade in the listed Dary Munro last start. Was a good run and won like a good horse. Can measure up and run well here but I can’t see him beating them all home on form.
Comments: Chautauqua is well under the odds today for mine in what will be a hotly run contest that should suit front runners with such a large field. At odds, I’m really thinking Rock Magic can run a good race and the horse will only drift on the day. Russian Revolution will run well but up in the weights today I’m not sure if he can beat them all home. Astern is also a query first up against rock hard fit runners. We are guessing on the surface with several runners including Speith and Malaguerra to an extent. Terravista seems to get in really well here and they won’t want to get too far back and he looks well suited here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 13, 14
Strategy: Back Terravista and Rock Magic
Randwick Race 9 – 1600m – The Star Doncaster Mile
1. Hauraki: Goes well enough on wet tracks without impressing… clearly better on top of the ground. 3rd behind Le Romain and Chautauqua two back. Failed to get closer than 10L to Winx last start over 1500m on heavy 10 and beaten by Le Romain and Chautauqua again. Won’t enjoy the rain again.
2. Le Romain: Smashed last start in the George Ryder by 7.3L by Winx… but it was obviously still a good run. Beat Chatauqua and Hauraki again and won the Canterbury Stakes two back well. Expect to run well again on the wet track.
3. Palentino: Never seen a Heavy track but has always handled soft tracks in the past. Stable don’t seem to have a worry either and it was a very good Blamey win as a lead in with a strong time set. Did get toweled up in training though by Tosen Stardom during the week.
4. Tosen Stardom: Word around is he will be scratched if it’s too wet. Absolutely flying right now after the poor run in the Blamey.. A+ class work during the week and would be going close here on a dry track.
5. Happy Clapper: Flying… Strong fast time and win in the Newcastle Newmarket heading into this over 1400m in under 1.24 on the soft 6. Will be running well here and nicely in at weights. Good barrier today helps. Goes fine on Heavy but really a query to make the step up on it.
6. It’s Somewhat: Different form line heading into this with a G2 win in the AJX on a Soft 6. Unproven on the Heavy tracks. Obviously going well enough to figure but winning this is a big ask.
7. Ecuador: Only fair in the Heavy 10 trial to really test the horse out on a heavy.. had never seen a heavy track previously.. goes okay on soft. 2000m back to 1600m – will be leading.
8. Arod: Going really well heading into this and somehow handled a Heavy 9 two runs back – this is a horse that hates the wet. Can’t go close on heavy in this IMO.
9. Dibayani: Two runs this prep and found little. Will be going far back from barrier 21 today and riding for luck. Never figured well enough on a heavy to suggest a win here.
10. Redkirk Warrior: Newmarket G1 winner with a low weight and gets in well at the weights here. Unknown on heavy is a big issue. Goes well over this distance from Hong Kong form.
11. McCreery: Goes nicely on the Heavy and won well in a G3 two back, but was no match for the top level last start on the Heavy 10 over 1500m. Others preferred.
12. Endless Drama: Strong trial on the heavy heading into this today. Very good run first up in the Apollo. Last start boxed on okay but wasn’t suited on the day with the speed on out front. Will get an easier time on speed today and will run nicely.
13. Sense of Occasion: G2 Villiers win last prep and 2nd in Godford Cup doesn’t exactly screw Doncaster winnner… first up here and while the horse handles the heavy track.. will need to find a career peak and beyond to measure up.
14. I Am a Star: Inside barrier. Good enough win heading into this in the Sunline Stakes. Unproven though on wet tracks. Gets in night but obviously has to be much better again than we have seen.
15. Hey Doc: Only run on a soft track and handled in just fine. Heavy may be another story but I doubt there are any issues there. G3 win and then strong G1 Aust Guineas win. Wide gate hurts the chances.
16. Antonio Giuseppe: 2000m back to 1600m here is ideal for this talented horse getting in well with a low weight. Best ridden with a sit not leading like the last few runs. Won 2 from 3 on heavy in the past and blinkers on looks an ideal placement.
17. Sons of John: G3 winner last prep.. Very average first up. Hard to suggest even a place.
18. Testashadow: Running quite well but not winning on the wet tracks. Can run okay again and perhaps top 8 is achieveable here.
19. Spectroscope: Solid 1L win beating the lesser grade of horses in G3 class in the Doncaster Prelude. Untapped potential with 51kg but clearly has to improve to beat the very best.
20. Euro Angel: Never measured up on a heavy in the past and last few runs have been average at best. Struggle to suggest this.
21. New Tipperary: Nice run 2nd behind It’s Somewhat as the lead in. Poor barrier would make it tough even if he gets a run.. do think he can run well though.
22. No Doubt: Every chance IMo last few runs and hasn’t been able to get a win on the board. Huge ask this.
23. Top of My List: Fairly beaten leading in, in G3 clashes. Not here.
Comments: One of the most open Doncaster Mile’s in recent memory. Le Romain is favourite and for a reason, but is 7L defeat behind Winx on Heavy really the best lead in form we can find here or do we look around it to the Melbourne form or other races? Palentino and Tosen Stardom get in well here while Happy Clapper couldn’t have been more impressive. Antonio Giuseppe has been well backed and you get the feeling the horse with blinkers back on has just been set for this. Endless Drama can’t be forgotten and Redkirk Warrior may be a concern on the heavy.. but is hard to ignore on past performances… and well yes Hey Doc… low weight good type. Randwick is generally always a track that is hard to makeup a lot of ground on when it’s wet so i want a horse in the first half of the field. Antonio Giuseppe and Le Romain tick the boxes.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 15, 16
Strategy: Backing both Le Romain and Antonio Giuseppe.
Randwick Race 10 – 2000m – TAB Adrian Knox Stakes
1. Cambage: Two lead in runs this prep and was beaten on a Heavy in BM-67 and then CL2 on a Soft 7… hard to exactly see the horse winning a Group 3 here.
2. Perfect Rhyme: Broke through for a CL1 win on heavy two back and then ran nicely enough 4th in G3 grade last start. Has to improve going up to this distance but has ability.
3. Mull Over: 3L maiden winner coming into this race off a soft 6 race. Looks a nice type but very hard to tell just how good the horse is.
4. High Impulse: Heavy 8 Maiden winner at Hawkesbury by over 5 lengths. Was a very good win and clearly a proven horse on the wet over the distance. Looks a top chance but barrier doesn’t help chances.
5. Almalita: Looks the clear front runner today. Got the CL1 win just over 2300m last start and back to 2000m obviously suitable. Unknown on heavy.
6. Fallacy: Heavy 10 maiden winner over 1650m heading into this. Really a lot of unknowns but they obviously expect a lot of the horse heading here.
7. Lamma Hilton: Failed on the heavy the past two starts. Previously beaten in Cl2 grade also. Terrible the previous prep also outside of the 2000m maiden win over Lasqueti Spirit.
8. La Chatte: Godolphin runner who has failed to break through for a maiden yet. Up to 2000m suits on breeding but looks to need a very good ride and improve loads.
9. Baysa: Heavy 9 maiden win at Goulburn over 1600m. Bred to get the 2000m no issues. Can measure up.
10. Dancing Hare: Maiden winner. BM-64 grade 3rd after that… two runs this prep both poor. Good barrier.
11. Red Heat: two CL1 wins in a row heading into this over 1600m and 2000m on dry tracks. Has placed on heavy in the past. Not the worst.
12. Face Like Thunder: Maiden winner at Quirindi and then BM-60 at Tuncurry won on a soft 5 over 2100m. Massive step up here though from country but not the worst.
13. Matron Wilson: Struggled to get close to a win on the lead in but hasn’t been bad. Goes okay on heavy and will appreciate the distance.
14. Blanco Cara: Placed in maiden grade last prep. Failed to get close on both runs this prep. Others preferred.
15. Waking Moment: Hasn’t gone close to a win this prep and even step up last start that was meant to suit, didn’t suit.
16. Usena: 2nd in a maiden at Goulburn last start on Heavy. Will handle the track but that’s about it.
17. Natchwhali: Heavy 8 3rd first up this prep after four trials. No excuses really. Not up to this.
Comments: Would have to lean towards High Impulse in this race which just doesn’t belong on the card or in the quaddie legs.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
Strategy: High Impulse E/W
