Welcome to The Profits form guide for The Championships Day 2 from Randwick as well as races from the Caulfield meeting on 14 April 2018.
We are focusing on a few key races this week from Randwick and Caulfield including the main feature races. As always, good luck and happy punting.
Randwick Race 2 – 1400m – The Agency South Pacific Classic – Listed
1. Torvill: Beaten a long way in Group 1 class last start. Didn’t handle the distance. Back to 1400m now where ran a close 2nd two back in Group 1 class. Well in here.
2. Isaurian: Strong lead in run 2nd to I Am Excited in the Darby Munro. If suited up to 1400m then is most likely the horse to beat.
3. Renewal: Ran a career best last start when 3.2L 4th to Unforgotten. Nice type of horse but a big step up in grade again. Can go well.
4. Diamond Tathagata: Group 2 winner from two preps back. This prep has run 6th and 5th well beaten on both occasions. Would need to turn form around.
5. Sparky Lad: Second up today. Fairly beaten in much easier grade of race. Did win a Open class race last prep over this distance in a time that would measure up here. Need to be at best.
6. Waimea Bay: Couldn’t place in a Class Five race last start. Previous run in Listed grade 3rd was ok.. this is much harder.
7. Thy Kingdom Come: Won a Class 1 first up this prep before failing in a BM-76 last start. Never gone close to times needed.
8. California Turbo: Class 1 winner on the lead in. Never run required times in the past and wasn’t impressed by the maiden win.
9. Dark Dream: Not the worst runner here. Solid win two back.. but query over the horse at distance and in class.
Top Chance: Isaurian
High Chance: Torvill, Renewal
Medium Chance: Diamond Tathagata, Sparky Lad
Low Chance: Waimea Bay, Dark Dream
Very Low Chance: Thy Kingdom Come, California Turbo
Expected Speed: Lack of speed in this race. Expecting benchmark times.
Comments: With a lack of real speed, Isaurian is the clear standout who will be hard to hold out from midfield. Main danger looks to be Torvill.
Randwick Race 5 – 1200m – Arrowfield 3YO Sprint – Group 2
1. Viridine: Strong run third last start behind In Her Time in The Galaxy. Previous run in the Hyland Race Colours 2.9L off Redzel first up was a great run. Perfectly suited here back in class. Ready to fire. Handles all conditions.
2. Showtime: Three runs this prep but failed to score a win so far. 1300m back to 1200m and best in past has been 1400+. Strong enough times on record to compete.
3. Pariah: Two lead in trials before 4.3L 7th behind Hellbent in the William Reid when well backed. No real excuses for mine and for mine there still is a query over the horse measuring at the top level. If at top, will go well.
4. Perast: Best run in past last prep 5th in the Guineas. Two runs this prep and beaten fairly over similar distances. Hard to suggest.
5. Isaurian: Lightly raced type with just three runs on the board. Last start close 2nd behind I AM Excited in the Darby Munro. Step up again here but clearly a very good type.
6. She Will Reign: Disappointed significantly for trainer last start in William Reid, but all three runs this prep the horse hasn’t gone close to the times run in Group 1 win last prep. Needs to improve.
7. Catchy: Not suited in the P J Bell Stakes on lead in run and 7 days between runs. Strong in the William Reid two back on lead in. Don’t dismiss.
8. Booker: Strong trial between runs. Respectable 7th in the Newmarket after a close 4th in the Oakleigh Plate. Back in class here and has been running the times required to win here. Respect.
9. Houtzen: Went well to win the P J Bell using the bias on the day. Was a return to form with the horses best run since the Group 3 MV win last prep. Not for me.
10. I Am Excited: Three runs three wins this prep. Finds a way on every occasion. This is another jump up in class. In the past has always found a few too good but you just have to respect her ability.
Top Chance: Viridine, Booker
High Chance: Catchy, Pariah
Medium Chance: I Am Excited, Isaurian, Houtzen
Low Chance: She Will Reign, Showtime
Very Low Chance: Perast
Expected Speed: Strong speed expected 3-8L above benchmark early.
Comments: Viridine the CLEAR standout. Booker the main danger. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Catchy and Pariah jump out of the ground, but clear two top picks with Viridine the standout from Booker.
Randwick Race 6 – 2400m – James Boag’s Australian Oaks – Group 1 3YO Fillies
1. Aloisia: Is she going well enough? Last prep produced elite times at Caulfield and Moonee Valley winning the Thousand Guineas and Vase before failing in the Oaks. Query over the distance and hasn’t produced elite times this prep just yet. Even so, was a forgive last start and times good enough to be competitive.
2. Hiyaam: Won nicely enough last start in the Vinery Stud Stakes. Stays at distance and this appears much harder up in distance. Fairly beaten in Oaks last prep at Flemington… times suggest a step below but can compete.
3. Unforgotten: Got back and run on well last start in the Vinery Stud in a race most likely not run fast enough for the horse to ever get close from back there. Better barrier slightly and Bowman goes on (negative before a Winx ride).
4. Savvy Coup: Won two in a row including a strong 2400m win on lead in Group 1 in NZ. The real deal this horse. Class.
5. Luvaluva: Two wins in a row. Defied a drift to win a race that didn’t break any records on Saturday. Has to improve back to very best and even so probably a step or two below.
6. Bring Me Roses: Ignore last start run and rate on previous runs, especially the Australian Guineas third. Horse is good enough on it’s day.. The faster they go the better the horses chances.
7. Contessa Vanessa: Solid enough 2nd behind Savvy Coup in the NZ Oaks. Fairly beaten. Coming out of a Group 3 win. Nice enough type.
8. Danzdanzdance: Close 2nd in the Avaondale Guineas three back before 3rd in the NZ Derby. Well beaten back over 2000m last start. Better than that effort.
9. Chilly Cha Cha: 3rd in Group 3 class on lead in behind Luvaluva. Never run strong times in the past. Has to improve again here to place.
10. She’s A Treasure: Went around $4 in Group 3 class two back when had 0 luck before coming out here. Got back to last on the weekend and ran on really well considering came home in the quicksand and was never suited. Can improve and win from this positive barrier.
11. Miss Admiration: Best run last prep was clearly in the Oaks. Never gone close to that before or since times wise. Wants a strong tempo set here.
12. Naivasha: Maiden winner on lead in by 7L. Hard to suggest on current form.
13. Wild Sea: Can’t understand how this horse is allowed to line up. Surely not.
Top Chance: Savvy Coup, Hiyaam
High Chance: She’s A Treasure, Bring Me Roses, Aloisia
Medium Chance: Contessa Vanessa, Unforgotten
Low Chance: Miss Admiration, Danzdanzdance, Chilly Cha Cha
Very Low Chance: Naivasha, Wild Sea
Expected Speed: Hiyaam and Chilly Cha CHa look the main on speed runners. 3L-5L above benchmark early.
Comments: Savvy Coup is a genuine star and well over the odds today. Hiyamm will be very hard to get past especially if we have a similar track to last week. She’s a Treasure is the value horse who can sit further forward than last start.
Randwick Race 7 – 2000m – Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes – Group 1
1. Happy Clapper: Big win in the Doncaster with a few ‘unlucky’ runs behind and suited by the bias, but won fairly by 2L. Close to a career peak run for the horse. Will run well but best in the past has always been seen over shorter distances than this.
2. Gailo Chop: Disappointed over the 1400m when ran worst run of the past 10 starts. Previous start over 2000m similar as well running poor times compared to best previously. Need to peak to go well here. Did that 2nd up.
3. Humdior: Not gone close to very best times this prep just yet. In past that has been 1600m and 2040m. Perfect lead in run to find very best here. The firmer the better.
4. Ambitious: Ran much better than had been trialing and running 2nd up when 2nd to Almandin at Rosehill. Back in distance but suitable.
5. Success Days: International raider. In 2017 won the York Stakes over 2000m which is a G2 before failing in the Irish Champ and Mid Distance Champ at Ascot. Yet to prove to be a true Group 1 horse.
6. Classic Uniform: Nice type last prep winning the Craven Group 3. Three runs in this prep and all failed hard. Struggle to see this horse placing even on best run.
7. Comin’ Through: Last three runs have all been verging on elite with a Group 2 win and strong 2nd covering ground behind Happy Clapper last start. Can run well again but hard to see running top 2.
8. Odeon: Couldn’t beat Shoreham in the Easter Cup…. Hard to suggest this horse to even go close, even with Group 1 placings in the past.
9. Winx: It’s Winx. She wins if the speed is slow, medium or fast. 1500m up to 2000m… didn’t stop her winning by 5.3L last year… obvious.
10. Consensus: Group 1 winner from back home in New Zealand. Nothing more to prove there so thrown in the deep end. Good enough in the Ranvet first up but clearly has to be at very top to compete.
Top Chance: Winx
High Chance: Humidor, Happy Clapper
Medium Chance: Ambitious, Gailo Chop
Low Chance: Consensus, Success Days, Comin’ Through
Very Low Chance: Classic Uniform, Odeon
Expected Speed: Strongly run race 6-9L above benchmark early.
Comments: Happy Clapper and Gailo Chop for mine are on the way down this prep and it will be very hard for both of them to peak again. Happy Clapper isn’t at it’s top at this distance either. The ‘Threats’ to Winx, or better said, those fighting for second, are Humidor who is on the way up and ready to peak here and Ambitious coming off a strong 2nd to the best stayer currently running around in the country.
Randwick Race 8 – 3200m – Schweppes Sydney Cup – Group 1
1. Almandin: Should settle better than midfield based on previous runs. Horse is flying and ready to peak 4th up. Best horse here by far.
2. Who Shot Thebarman: Never runs a bad race especially at distances. Last year 2nd in this. Final run of last prep won as well. Ready to run well.
3. Libran: Horror barrier. Not going terrible this prep but for mine big jump 2000m to 3200m and will do it tough.
4. Ventura Storm: Strong 2nd last start at course and 4th run in 4 weeks a big issue for mine. Horse will stay for days and travels well. Expect to be further forward again here from gate.
6. Pre Stwick: Nice enough type this Japanese raider. Stays all day and has been going well enough behind some very strong types all prep. Likely place type… and has the ability on it’s day to win.
7. Five to Midnight: Solid NZ type who went super close in the Auckland Cup two back. Had a 2000m run between that. Win wouldn’t be a total shock based on two back run but for mine not the best of them.
8. Auvray: Nice enough win in easier class two back and then last start was fair from well back behind Almandin. Has to improve but should be no issues over distance.
9. Lord Fandango: Ignore on wet last start and was in the worst ground in Australian Cup. The horse may very well be peaking here and looks the type to appreciate this distance. Williams onboard for a reason. Just look back to the Caulfield Cup run – was the run of the race.
10. Aloft: Listed winner 41 days ago at Flemington in slow time. Word is the horse is going very well at home. Always been a nice type but this is a step up from anything he has done to date in Australia. Will be on speed with a low weight.
12. Zacada: The big value in the race. Run as good as Sir Charles Road on lead in and just wasn’t suited by biased track first up in AUS. Close 5th in Auckland Cup two back and for mine didn’t win due to being whipped late. Hope the stable have realised how to ride the horse. One and only runner for this top NZ stable.
13. Sir Charles Road: Good win for us last start $15 into $7.50 winning on the bias in solid time. Horse has quality… but query for mine on this track and up to 3200m again. Will stay but really runs into some very good horses and has to peak again.
15. Lasqueti Spirit: Pace angle in race. Just no.
16. Cismontane: Horse looks absolutely cooked. Would be a miracle turn around in form to measure up.
17. Patrick Erin: Two runs for stable this prep. 4th in the Wellington Cup start of year. Ok type but query being strong enough here.
18. Peribsen: Irish import. Still in first prep in AUS and has been a long prep. Got a win in MUCH easier three back and will be at top over 3200m. Nice enough from the back last start. Don’t dismiss.
19. Admiral Jello: Staying type but well below this level. Take on.
20. Ormito: Strong 2nd in Adelaide Cup. That was a lesser race than this as we all know. Has to improve. Williams jumps off.
21. Doukhan: Not the worst last start in the Chairmans but didn’t get close. Would need to peak significantly to measure up.
Top Chance: Almandin
High Chance: Lord Fandango, Zacada, Pre Stwick, Who Shot The Barman
Medium Chance: Peribsen, Sir Charles Road, Five to Midnight, Ventura Storm
Low Chance: Auvray, Patrick Erin, Ormito, Doukhan, Libran
Very Low Chance: Cismontane, Admiral Jello, Lasqueti Spirit
Expected Speed: 5-8L above benchmark early. Strong tempo.
Comments: Almandin maps to simply win this. Absolute standout at the prices. Lord Fandango has the ability to improve past Almanadin potentially while Zacada is the massive overs in the race bringing a strong NZ form line that is under-raced. The Japanese horse Pre Stwick is a big unknown.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – JRA BM-84
1. Milwaukee: Strong win two back at Flemington. Last start ran well but was below best on the day when ridden closer to the speed. Think the horse was just flat and can return to best here. Looks the only natural leader outside of Murphy’s Reward.
3. Murphy’s Reward: Nice enough in the yard last start but disappointed failing to finish off. Won first up off an easier tempo and gets it here.
4. Temps Voleur: Two trials on lead in. Needs further than this.
5. Carraig Aonair: First up here. Went a long way through grades last prep but clearly needs further.
7. Mr Individual: Three runs this prep all in quality races and hasn’t produced a run up to winning this. Best in past off strong tempos over further.
8. Saint Valorem: Nice enough trial on lead in. Last prep won nicely over this distance range early in prep. Strong late.
9. Dan Zephyr: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Was okay first up but not great.
10. Written Era: Ran ok first up in a strongly run race. Last start found a softer race and didn’t finish off great. Has the ability with the right run.
12. Brahmos: Hasn’t run time the last two runs and has had the runs of the race both times. Another step up here and looks well under the odds again.
13. Gatlinburg: Third up today – best run in past was up north. Query over the horses ability to beat these on first two runs this prep.
14. Highland Beat: Continues to run similar numbers – past 6 runs all very similar. Took a slowly run race for the horse to finish off over them to win last prep.
15. I Boogi: Nice tpye and lightly raced. Won last two races first up but this is the testing material.
16. King River: First up. Last prep looked the type to go on with it and measure up but failed to do that. Best in past over in the west would be good enough to win this.
Top Chances: Milwaukee
High Chances: Highland Beat, Saint Valorem, Brahmos
Medium Chances: Murphy’s Reward, Written Era, I Boogi, King River
Low Chances: Mr Individual, Dan Zephyr, Gatlinburg
Very Low Chances: Temps Voleur, Carraig Aonair
Expected Speed: Lack of genuine tempo. Benchmark to 2L above maximum.
Comments: Milwaukee maps to get the ideal spot on speed and be very hard to run past with the right run. Highland Beat looks the main danger
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Sandown Park Handicap – F&M
1. Cool Passion: Consistent type. First up today. Last three runs of last prep over further won in Group 3 class and close 2nds in Group 2 and Group 3. Horse has top ability and obviously a danger here.
2. Lady Esprit: Well back in class today. Has consistently run well this prep at Caulfield and drops back from a very good run in Group 1 class and a failure at Rosehill to this. If they are able to swoop today then clearly one of the top horses to beat.
3. Quilate: Group 3 winner last prep over 1600m. Goes okay enough over these distances but better further into preps and over 1400m+.
4. Sullivan Bay: Strong run 4th at course and distance last start and stays in similar company here. Horse is ready to fire here today and maps very well with such a low weight. Hard to get past. Big chance.
5. Deja Blue: Second last and last the past two starts. Very inconsistent type and won’t get the race run to suit in any way today.
6. Mamzelle Tess: 56 days between runs after failing to fire last start at Flemington. Step back in distance to where she scored three runs back here. Goes well.
8. Typhoon Jolie: Strong win beating an average bunch first up. Need to improve but was a good run three back at Flemington over further.
9. Moonlover: First up after a three month break. Won a trial on lead in. Best runs last prep over further than this. Can go well but not for me.
10. Certain Ellie: Two weeks between runs. Good win three back at Moonee Valley but hasn’t found the right race for a while. Wants speed on and finds it. Win wouldn’t shock.
11. Motown Lil: Nice enough run last start from too far back not fully suited and didn’t get best run. Strongly in at weights.
12. Sasayuri: Beat So Si Bon in a trial on lead in to this prep. Looks a level below these.
14. She’s Positive: Two runs this prep. First up was only okay and even last start beat a much easier class of animal than this. Hard to suggest.
15. Working From Home: Nice enough win last start at Moonee Valley but takes a big step up in grade here. Will go forward. Best can place but doubt a win at weights.
17. Winspot: Best in the past still well below this. Based on two runs in this prep this horse is well outclassed.
19. If Not Now When: Cat. Doesn’t win often. Been up a long time this prep. Finally finds a race with pace. Can run home well.
20. Ilovethislady: Hard to suggest a top 6 finish. Never run time.
Top Chances: Sullivan Bay, Lady Esprit
High Chances: Cool Passion, Motown Lil, Certain Ellie
Medium Chances: Quilate, Mamzelle Tess, Moonlover, If Not Now When, Working From Home,
Low Chances: Typhoon Jolie, Deja Blue, She’s Positive
Very Low Chances: Sasayuri, Winspot, Ilovethislady
Expected Speed: Sullivan Bay to set a genuine tempo 4-5L above benchmark.
Comments: Sullivan Bay is ready to peak and win here 4th up. With a very low weight and being able to set the right tempo on speed, she is the horse they have to run down. Lady Esprit and Motown Lil both come out of very good races and look the main chances to do so while Cool Passion has to be respected. Certain Ellie looks a blowout chance if finds best form.
