Welcome to The Profits form guide for The Championships Day 1 from Randwick as well as races from the Bendigo Golden Mile meeting on 7 April 2018.
We are focusing on a few key races this week from Randwick and Bendigo including the main feature races. As always, good luck and happy punting.
Randwick Race 1 – 1100m – Widden Kidergarten Stakes – 2YO G3
1. Legend of Condor: On speed type. Last start had the race run to suit with a strong tempo but failed to finish off. Previous start nice enough figures to measure up and be hard to get past here. If slowly run does have ability to finish off.
2. Stunts: Last start won a very slowly run maiden. Proven to have strong finishing speed off fast tempos but big jump back up in class.
3. Paquirri: Four runs to date and never gone close to the runs required to measure up. Take on.
4. Lean Mean Machine: Trial winner x2 in fine fashion. Nice maiden win first up. Has to improve but nice type.
5. Munich: Nice enough times first prep. Fairly beaten in maiden behind Lean Mean Machine. Blinkers on today though.
6. Mandalong Emperor: Two runs this prep both well below what is needed to measure up here. No.
7. Vendome: Two lead in tries. Avdulla quality booking – good stable. Query distance and this class?
8. Enbihaar: Strong trial between runs and not been seen since 2nd in Blue Diamond. Trying-up when scratched from slipper. Sectionals and time figures suggest this it he horse to clearly beat. Maps 1/1 for perfect position.
9. Ennis Hill: Best run in the past probably just wins this. Coming off a lameness issues before the Blue Diamond. 28 days between last run and this one. Was only beaten 2.6L by Estijaab who since came out and won the slipper. Has to improve again here but looks to be more than good enough from on speed.
Top Chances: Ennis Hill, Enbihaar
High Chances: Legend of Condor, Munich
Medium Chances: Lean Mean Machine, Vendome
Low Chances: Stunts
Very Low Chances: Paquirri, Mandalong Emperor
Expected Speed: Legend of Condor and Ennis Hill expected to push the tempo. Believe both don’t want a tempo much stronger than benchmark so expecting Benchmark to 3L above.
Comments: Ennis Hill has had the right amount of time between runs to recover and run another peak rating which would have him winning this from on speed. Main danger is Enbihaar who at the price can only ever be a saver coming off Tying up issues which we can’t be fully convinced the horse has recovered from.
Randwick Race 2 – 1600m – China Horse Club Carbine Club – 3YO Group 3
1. Holy Snow: Strong lead in run 2nd to Unforgotten at Rosehill in Group 2 class. Goes back in grade here and will be peaking. Strong tempo best suits.
2. Villermont: Disappointing enough last start at Rosehill in Group 1 class and steps back to 1600m today where better suited. Back in class. Best should be good enough from the barrier to measure up. Gun onboard.
3. Assimilate: Trialed between runs. Canberra Guineas winner beating some okay types. Query over horses ability in this grade to give the right rating run.
4. Beau Geste: Looked an ignore job last start in easier grade when in worst part of track. Best from past over these distances more than good enough. Maps ok here.
5. Muraaqeb: No match for them last start or in the Guineas but the CS Hayes run looked more than solid enough to run well here. Best run was off a speed slightly above expected early tempo allowing the horse to finish off. Bad map.
6. Sambro: Beaten first up in BM-78 grade in a slowly run race. Not the ideal lead in at all for mine against tough hardened fit types. This is a good horse and maps forward.
7. Dissolution: Maiden winner first up off two solid trials and then won easy last start in BM-76 grade. Huge jump in class. Measured up well enough in similar grades in the past but data suggests has to improve here again.
8. Sondelon: Lightly raced type and natural speed runner in the race. Hasn’t ever run real times to measure up and win here and has never lead them around fast – query on speed in race – something else may take on?
10. Icon of Dubai: Two runs this prep and has been well below the grade needed. Hard to see the natural improvement on previous runs this prep and McEvoy jumps off.
11. Charlie Chap: Couldn’t place in a Class 5 last start. Looks well below these on form.
12. Think Straight: Maiden winner. Has run ok enough times in the past but clearly this is significantly harder.
Top Chances: Villermont, Holy Snow
High Chances: Beau Geste, Muraaqeb
Medium Chances: Assimilate, Sambro
Low Chances: Sondelon, Icon of Dubai, 12. Think Straight
Very Low Chances: Charlie Chap
Expected Speed: Huge query over the speed here with Sondelon expected to lead, but the horse has never run them along early in his life. Could be 5L below benchmark up to 2L above range.
Comments: Very hard race to get involved in without a natural push along speed runner. Villermont and Beau Geste map for ideal spots just off the speed and have the ability to win off a slow or fast tempo. Holy Snow could sneak further forward than mapped and is in a similar boat – the best horse in race for sure just mapping is against.
Randwick Race 3 – 1200m – The Man Shake P J Bell Stakes – 3YO Group 3
1. Catchy: Strong Group 1 third last start 3rd behind Hellbent. Horse ready to fire here and looks well suited as long as they can run on.
2. Frolic: Two runs this prep and hasn’t been close on either occasion. Peak run from past probably not good enough to even win. Others preferred.
3. Banish: Group 2 winner in the past over further. Never got a shot at them first up and can improve onwards strongly 49 days between runs. Win won’t shock.
4. Houtzen: Good horse we know that but first up was well below best. Significant improvement needed. Best runs in past obviously can win.
5. Debonairly: Super poor run last start. Previous runs not much better. Hard to suggest on recent form.
6. She’s So High: Flew home last start at Flemington for a very easy win in easier grade. Consistently setting strong sectionals over any distance. Good type.
7. Yulong Xingsheng: Two disappointing runs this prep. End of last prep 1400m win at Sandown showed some very very good early middle and late speed.
8. Demerara: Horse is flying. Ran a clear career peak last start in easier race at Flemington. Step up again here. Maps nicely. Go close.
9. True Excelsior: Strong win in much easier race last start from on speed – controlled tempo. Sit sprint type of horse? Below these.
10. Charlayne: 63 days between runs coming off a BM-78 win at Rosehill. Times late were certainly respectable.
11. Maicure: Trialled to be ready to go first up but couldn’t get within 3.4L of them in the Darby Munro last start. Has to improve in this again.
12. Problem Solver: Lead in run second behind Deprive was good enough to run a race here but hard to suggest a win.
14. Sweet Deal: Couldn’t win a BM-70 or BM-73 on lead in. Okay enough runs but clearly well below the grade needed to place here.
15. Dinnigan: Maiden winner. Deep into this prep. Did run 2nd in a Group 3 on Magic Millions day so has to be respected for that run… but this is a big jump in grade off the previous form runs.
16. Dyslexic: Class two winner last start. Horrible form lines.
17. Stratum Charge: Won a poor maiden on lead in. Take on.
18. Rotterdam: Just won a maiden last start. Massive improvement needed to measure up here.
Top Chances: Catchy, Demerara
High Chances: She’s So High, Houtzen
Medium Chances: Banish, Yulong Xingsheng, Charlayne, True Excelsior
Low Chances: Frolic, Maicure, Problem Solver, Dinnigan, Rotterdam, Debonairly
Very Low Chances: Sweet Deal, Dyslexic, Stratum Charge
Expected Speed: Strong early speed in this race – many competing for an on speed spot. Swoopers will get there chance in a race run 5L+ above benchmark early.
Comments: Catchy has continued to improve significantly after each run this prep and coming back in class here after running 3rd in a Group 3, the price looks value. Demerara and She’s So High look the main dangers with Demerara getting the run of the race. The value runners look to be Banish and Yulong Xingsheng.
Randwick Race 5 – 2600m – Schweppes Chairman’s Quality – Group 2
1. Ventura Storm: 7 day turn around. Suited up to 2600m. Well back in class. Maps well. Looking for a hot tempo again. Will go forward here.
2. Master of Arts: Got the race run to suit from nice spot in run last start with not overly strong tempo – very tough over final 600m. Step up in grade here.
3. Tally: Disappointed last start off a slow tempo out front. Finished off ok but never a threat. Best seen off strong tempos in the past. Maps on speed.
4. Zacada: Very interesting runner. Looked a nice type when competing in Australia back in 2015. Gone on to Avondale Cup win this prep and 5th in the Auckland Cup over 3200m last start. Step back in distance no knock. May very well be over the odds.
6. Sir Charles Road: 6th just behind Zacada in the Auckland CUp last start. Won the 2400m cup three runs back. Very good type and the more fancied of the raiders. Was really given a shocker of a ride for mine last start sat OL for half the race then was shuffled back and found itself 1L infront of last runner entering straight.
7. Cismontane: Two hugely disappointing runs on lead in. Now or never – will push a stronger tempo.
8. Alward: Too far back last start and doesn’t map much better here. Great type but needs race run to suit to show very best.
9. Double Bluff: 3200m back to 2600m here off a only fair run in the Adelaide Cup. Previous run terrible off a slow tempo. Wants the speed on.
10. Admiral Jello: Too far back last start never suited at Rosehill. Previous start just missed in a slowly run Canberra Cup also. Step up in grade again here.
11. Peribsen: Strong 3rd last start behind Master of Arts. Much harder again here but proven in this grade… just not if they run it along.
12. Imperial Aviator: Hasn’t produced figures good enough all prep to figure in this grade. Last start poor.
13. Ormito: Just missed in the Adelaide Cup and steps back in distance up in grade again here. Williams keeps ride. Well in at weights. Been up forever this prep.
14. Wheal Leisure: Been poor all three runs this prep over shorter distances. Form from last prep over these distances suggests has to measure up.. but the booking and recent form makes it hard to suggest.
15. Doukhan: Looking for further last start when found a 2000m race slowly run. Query step up to 2600m here without a solid run though. Has some ability.
16. Up Cups: Been up a long time this prep. Hasn’t gone close enough last few starts for my liking.
17. Domed: Nice enough run 2nd to The Pinnacle last start in easier grade. Well in at weights so to speak and has some ability certainly.. but query distance and age in this.
Top Chances: Sir Charles Road, Ventura Storm
High Chances: Zacada, Alward, Master of Arts
Medium Chances: Peribsen, Cismontane, Ormito
Low Chances: Imperial Aviator, Double Bluff, Tally, Wheal Leisure, Domed.
Very Low Chances: Doukhan, Up Cups
Expected Speed: Cismontane and Sir Charles Road look the obvious on speed horses but the NZ runner won’t push it. Cismonaine hasn’t pushed it the last two starts but have to believe they put a bit into it here to try improve the horse? 2L to 8L above benchmark early.. expecting around 4L.
Comments: The market is under-estimating the two NZ horses – Sir Charles Road is a tough out and out stayer and will be hard to run down from the front. Ventura Storm will sit further forward today, back in class, looks well in here. The other NZ horse Zacada, with the right run, looks to have the closing ability similar to an Alward at 4X the price.
Randwick Race 8 – 1200m – Darley TJ Smith Stakes – Group 1
1. Redzel: The best sprinter in the world? Should lead from barrier or sit OL if GG or JG cross. Best times in the race, handles a hot or medium tempo but expect them to try and run it to win it. Very hard to get past. Perfect horse. Peak run last start.
2. Le Romain: Hasn’t won since early 2017 when won over 1300m. Goes ok at this distance but hasn’t been close to best recently.. that being said only looks a few lengths off them.
3. Brave Smash: Continues to run well. Just beaten in a Newmarket and running some very solid sectionals. Looks a step below Redzel for mine though but is a genuine place contender.
4. Jungle Edge: Best on wetter. Hard to suggest even a place today. Best times are very good.
5. Takedown: Looked a talented up and comer a few preps back. No form last two preps.
7. Fell Swoop: Looked great in yard last start but ran poorly. Not here.
8. In Her Time: Huge result in the Galaxy last start setting some scorching times. Maps for ideal run and to have every chance if good enough late.
9. English: Out the back last few starts. Flew home last two starts and set some very solid times that will measure up. Probably settle back again but has the ability to settle more forward if they want to risk it.
10. Global Glamour: Nice enough type. 2nd to Happy Clapper last start. A step below these (would go well in a William Reid type race with that data). Place chance?
12. Trapeze Artist: Horse in the past has shown X factor over further. Maps well and good 3rd behind Kementari last start… step up to open grade harder.
14. The Mission: Not the worst two runs on lead in but clearly a step below these.
Top Chances: Redzel
High Chances: In Her Time, English, Brave Smash
Medium Chances: Global Glamour, Jungle Edge
Low Chances: Trapeze Artist, Fell Swoop
Very Low Chances: Takedown, The Mission
Expected Speed: Very strong tempo 5-10L above benchmark and even stronger late. Will be a very big rating race clearly.
Comments: Redzel the horse to beat and looks a good price. In Her Time fav out also looks a nice bet if you like the horse. English and Brave Smash look the only dangers.
Randwick Race 9 – 1600m – The Star Doncaster Mile – Group 1
1. Humidor: Horse is going to be peaking here and has genuine superstar ability – got very close to Winx in the Cox Plate and looks suited here. Get back run on type. Respect.
2. Tosen Stardom: Ignore the horse went around last start off a slow tempo race. Pulled all the way and never in it. Best clearly seen last prep was a 1600m Group 1 win and a 2000m Group 1 win 4th and 6th up.. 4th up here.
3. Happy Clapper: Horse is flying and well suited here. Maps perfectly on speed and enjoys slow or fastly run races. Every chance there isn’t huge speed on here and will be in right spot for it.
4. Endless Drama: Good trial win on lead in. Nice Group 2 win two back before outclassed in Group 1 class behind the Clapper. Hard to see turning the tables unless speed is on – even then, hard to suggest.
5. Prized Icon: Not the worst lead in runs at all with a 3rd behind Gailo Chop and respectable 6th behind Tom Melbourne and Comin Through before that. Hard to suggest for the win but can respect in exotics.
6. Crack Me Up: Strong win over 1300m first up in Sydney. Last start in harder race up in distance ran home strongly from an ok spot but never a chance. Wants more speed on to show best.
7. Invincible Gem: Strong third behind the Clapper in the Bisley before not the worst run 5th in the George Ryder. Can run well here from a wide barrier pushing forward.
8. Tom Melbourne: Brave run 2nd last start and will continue onwards with improvement this prep. Ready to fire and perfectly suited here. Just hope with the low weight they roll forward and set a reasonable enough tempo to win.
9. Kementari: Strong type but has never run elite sectionals yet. Continues to run well and respect here, but doesn’t map overly well. Looks under the odds even at the weights.
10. Comin’ Through: Got the race run to suit last start but still ran very well winning, just. Not sure the horse has any more improvement – if speed is on will run a bold race.
11. Lanciato: Good type coming off a Group 3 win at Newcastle. Big step up in grade though.
12. Egg Tart: Hasn’t been the same the past two preps but was never as good as the hype suggested. Can run a solid race but hard to see placing.
13. Arbeitsam: Got the race run to suit last start over 2000m and stole a win from on speed. Previous run was good enough to be respected here 5th behind Comin’ Through.
14. Mister Sea Wolf: Never gone close sectionals or data wise to what is needed to go close here. Take on.
15. Cool Chap: Not the worst lead in runs and best in past more than good enough to run a solid race. Just not convinced this horse is Group 1 – Cat.
16. D’Argento: Steps back to 1600m today which is a query? Best runs in past still below what is needed here is the issue but 49kg will hit the line hard.
Top Chances: Happy Clapper
High Chances: Tom Melbourne, Tosen Stardom, Humidor, Kementari
Medium Chances: D’Argento, Invincible Gem, Comin’ Through, Lanciato, Cool Chap
Low Chances: Endless Drama, Prized Icon, Crack Me Up, Egg Tart, Arbeitsam
Very Low Chances: Mister Sea Wolf
Expected Speed: Very difficult to see a brutal strong speed here unless Tom Melbourne pushes it. 1L-5L above benchmark with Arbeitsam leading them around.
Comments: Happy Clapper maps perfectly and off another 2nd to Winx is ready to fire. Tosen Stardom and Tom Melbourne are huge overs in the race while if we get a very genuine tempo Humidor will be flying home late. Kementari for mine certainly can win, but looks under the odds to bet. The same for D’Argento.
Bendigo Race 1 – 2400m – Macedon Lodge Handicap
1. Gallic Chieftain: Stony Creek Cup winner two back and 4th in the Mornington Cup last start. First up run was very good ratings wise and a repeat of that here would have the horse going close. Go well at this distance.
2. Harrison: Very strong run in the Mornington Cup and doesn’t find a harder race here. Ran into a Group 1 type and still beat home the rest. 3rd up will be peaking.
3. Sin to Win: Three runs this prep and been far off a win. Best run last prep was over 2800m. Never won in this grade.
4. Multitude: Hasn’t run a race good enough to measure up and win this in a long time. Has to improve.
5. Brimham Rocks: Strong type off the UK form and had no right to go close first up off a very slow tempo over 2000m. MUCH better suited 2400m and well suited here. Big improver and weighted to win.
6. Charlevoix: Backed last start over the 2000m and didn’t have the race run to suit. Shown nothing this prep. Last win at Flemington was good.
7. Mr One Eleven: A step below these on recent and past form. Not here.
8. Zourkhan: Okay type of horse not a bad lead in form line but doesn’t win often and this is a step up in grade.
9. Raindrops on Roses: Been around the block a few times. Failed over the 3200m. Previous win over 2500m was good but in a lot easier.
10. Happy as Hell: Best in past would compete. Two runs this prep very very poor.
Top Chances: Brimham Rocks, Harrison
High Chances: Gallic Chieftain, Charlevoix
Medium Chances: Sin to Win, Zourkhan
Low Chances: Multitude, Raindrops on Roses, Happy as Hell
Very Low Chances: Mr One Eleven
Expected Speed: Harrison and Multitude will set a genuine clip and make this a staying test. 3-5L above benchmark throughout.
Comments: Brimham Rocks is weighted to win this race and heavily under-valued over this distance by the market. Expecting he may even drift on the day. Harrison is the main danger while Charlevoix looks the value in the race.
Bendigo Race 6 – 1400m – Bendigo Gold Bracelet – Open Class
1. Quilate: First up today. Last prep best run was in a Group 3 winning over further 3rd up. Goes ok enough first up but best is off a very strong tempo deeper into prep.
2. French Emotion: Probably not suited by tempo first up over 1200m when 2nd behind Quilista who went up north and won since. Up to 1400m where better suited and looks to be a nice tempo here but not overly strong which gives the horse the ability to finish off. Respect.
3. Miss Gunpowder: Nice enough type but last few runs have shown the horse to be a second-rater – which suits here. For mine, has to improve on last two runs.
4. Schism: Strong return to the track first up when went around at a solid enough clip after working throughout to get on speed and finished off really well considering. Expect the horse to be ready to fire here.
5. Domino Vitale: Improvement to come with 49 days between runs. Good win three back.. but down in distance.. up in class. Needs to find more.
6. Tahanee: Got the win last prep over Flemington after promising the world. The stable will now have a strong handle on this horse and looks well enough suited here 1400m first up. If wound up, will be hard to hold out if speed is on.
7. Sebring Dream: First up today. BM-78 winner last prep. Hasn’t been able to go close recently in a race strongly run.
8. Jalan Jalan: An eternity since this horse has won. Had a chance last start in easier. Probably better suited now up to 1400m.
9. My True Love: Two lead in trials for this Waterhouse/Bott front runner. Expected to set a solid clip on speed like previous preps… but last win was when controlled speed on pace and didn’t over do it. Doesn’t look good enough.
10. Jester Halo: Been running some consistent placings or just off them in harder company. Step back in grade, respect the horses ability from on speed.
11. Give Us a Go: Two runs this prep both poor in unsuitable races. Hard to suggest here.
12. Go Down: Nice win two back but last start showed it wasn’t as good on the board as it looked. Hard to have.
13. Near Queue: Strong lead in win off a hot tempo. Could get that here and has to be respected.
14. Amortentia: Form stable. Career peak run denying the data last start. Would still need to improve again.
Top Chances: Schism, French Emotion
High Chances: Tahanee, Jester Halo, Near Queue
Medium Chances: Quilate, Miss Gunpowder, My True Love, Amortentia.
Low Chances: Jalan Jalan, Domino Vitale, Sebring Dream, Go Down
Very Low Chances: Give Us a Go
Expected Speed: Strongly run with Schism and My True Love pushing the tempo. 5-8L above Benchmark
Comments: Schism ran a cracker first up and has lengths of improvement to come here up to 1400m – overs in this race. French Emotion clearly the horse to beat and prices show it. Tahanee will be well suited to the tempo while Jester Halo never runs a bad race either.
Bendigo Race 7 – 1600m – Bet365 Golden Mile – Listed
1. Sovereign Nation: Strong listed win on lead in. Best form in past which includes Group class runs has this horse well in.
2. Vengeur Masque: Group 3 winner to end last prep. Starting prep very late being first up here – better later into runs and over further.
3. Amovatio: Strong lead in run when not really tested in Group 3 class last start and gets the chance here today. Best in past more than good enough for this.
4. Hardham: Three barrier trials on lead in to have the horse ready to go. Three runs to start last prep around this distance in these grades 1 win a two very good runs.
5. Seaburge: Strong 3rd last start at Flemington when ran better than expected. Back to form it appears and can run well here if at best. Needs to improve.
6. Kiwia: Surprised first up with a strong run over the 1400m. 1600m in this grade clearly the aim this prep. Times are sound and can go well here.
8. Midterm: Very good type with best runs over 2000-2400m in the past. Was gaped by Found and Almanzor in Group 1 class running 7th but was just 1-1.5L off the third horse. Some very good types around it. Will go forward and position on speed – out and out staying type. Top chance.
9. Nozomi: No luck last start and well suited here again. Will drift on day once again and is a top chance here. Big odds.
10. Observational: Not been the same top class horse the past four runs. Two trials on lead in suggest going ok and wanting to win 3rd Golden Mile. If speed is on will be suited.
11. Wyndspelle: Always seems to run well but keeps finding at least one too good. Best runs were 5 and 6 runs back.
12. Petrology: Running ok enough the three runs to date this prep but still significantly below what is needed to win this. Has to find the ultimate improvement – wants speed on.
13. Mask of Time: Simply ignore the horse went around last start. Back in grade here and up to 1600m ideal. Last prep 2.2L off in a Group 1! Get back run on. If speed is on, this horse is coming!
14. Coldstone: Went backwards last start off a strong run at Flemington previously. Improvement needed to beat the best of these but if goes slowly out front may be suited.
15. Kenjorwood: Old mate is getting on in age and just not going well enough.
16. Sword of Light: Continues to run very well this prep. Oakleigh Plate run was solid and then last start improved again. Query at the 1600m but has the ability to go ok.
17. Dodging Bullets: Ran poorly first up on lead in. Last prep best runs 2000m+.
18. Rising Red: Not up to this grade on recent form… and best run in past 2400m.
Top Chances: Midterm, Nozomi, Mask of Time
High Chances: Sovereign Nation, Kiwia
Medium Chances: Amovatio, Hardham, Observational, Sword of Light
Low Chances: Seaburge, Vengeur Masque, Wyndspelle, Petrology, Coldstone
Very Low Chances: Kenjorwood, Dodging Bullets, Rising Red
Expected Speed: A race that generally finds the speed on, but there is a query or two over how fast this will be run. Expecting benchmark up to 4L above early and they could very well drop it mid-race.
Comments: Midterm is a horse being well under-valued in the market in this grade of race. There is a query at the distance but there is always a method to the madness of this stable. Nozomi maps well again and will start a big price. Mask of Time is the best horse in this race if they set speed on out front.
