Moonee Valley
Race 1 – Pick – Dance With Her
A battle of two. Both horses up 3.5kg on last runs. Dance with her has better times compared to There’s Only One when comparing past runs and we give Dance With Her the nod in this race.
Currently paying $2.70 Fixed
Race 2 – Pick – Zelsnitz
Zelsnitz had a terrible autumn this year with a vet examination after each race. 4 months off should work out well for Zelsnitz and we expect a bold showing. Moody wouldn’t pull Zel in if not ready and Nolen on board is always an advantage.
Down in class and down in weight.
Current playing $6.00 Fixed
Saver bet: State Grade at $4.40 Fixed
Race 3 – Pick – Charlie’s Queen
One of the hardest races to pick a winner in of the day. There are about 6 or 7 horses who could wint his one.
We are picking two horses for this race.
We have the most confidence on Charlie’s Queen to swoop late and pick it up at $7.50 Fixed
Our 2nd Horse we give a good hope to is Shylight, significantly down in grade first up after winning a 3F-GP3 last up over a quality horse in Southern Speed.
Shylight is paying $11.00 Fixed but expect a higher price on the open market closer to off-time
Race 4 – Pick – Geejayhaitch
We have this one down to three horses in Geejayhaitch, Diamondsondinside and Gotta Keep Cool.
GeeJayHaitch is coming off a good win and runs well off this distance. Expect a bold showing and to be there in the end.
Currently paying $7.00 Fixed – Will shorten
Race 5 – Pick – Triple Asset
Hallowell Belle will jump a short favourite under $3. This class has to be respected finishing 2nd to Sepoy (4l) last prep. Hallowell jumped awkwardly first up this prep and won a Maiden.. which isn’t the best of form.
With this in mind, we are looking forwards Triple Asset who has won 3 of its last 4, all in higher class levels. Expecting a very bold showing first up with a place expected at minimum
Currently paying $12 Fixed
Saver Bet: Hallowell Belle $2.90 Fixed – Will shorten
Race 6 – Pick – Secret Hills
We have this race down to 4 horses with Huegill, Sabrage, Secret Hills and Hot Spin all looking impressive.
Interestingly, all 4 of these horses will be near the front with all of their last runs being from 1st or 2nd in run recently.
We are going to rule Sabrage out of our betting due to not knowing what will be delivered off a heavy track – more of a wait and see horse with an impressive first up big win.
Huegill has a superior time over 1100 than Hot Spin so with that in mine we are ruling him out.
This leaves us with HueGill and Secret Hills. Hue is down 0.5kg while Secret is down 2kg with Newitt on board.
This is Huegills 2nd race coming off a 3rd to Sepoy after hanging out. Both will give impressive rides but we feel the times put up by Secret Hills are enough to get there in the end.
Current paying $10 Fixed
Saver Bet: Huegill $4.40 Fixed
Race 7 – Pick – Definitely Ready
There are 3 or 4 horses in contention in this race and we have got it down to two. Definetly Ready and Wilander are the two horses we like in this race. Both showed alot last up.
Currently paying $4.25 Fixed – Will shorten
Saver Bet: Wilander $15.00 Fixed – Will shorten
Race 8 – December Draw
Get out stakes! If State Grade has a big win eariler in the day then it may be worth considering Base in this race with both Base and State Grade going within 0.2l of each other on 2 occasions.
We just can’t go past December Draw who impressed last up with a 5L win.
Currently Paying $3.00 Fixed
Warwick Farm
Race 1 – Pick – Othello
A hard race to pick. With the expected Heavy 8-10 Track, we feel Othello will have the legs to run this one home with a good win last start.
Currently paying $3.50 Fixed
Race 2 – Pick – Fieldmaster
Our eyes don’t look anywhere else in this race. Down 2kg, down in class, won 2 of last 4 on a Heavy Track.. goes the distance.. lost the last one over 2430 and hung in. Should find 2200 better.
Currently paying $4.10 fixed
Race 3 – Pick – Zara Dancer
A day of rain always puts up a surprise winner. That is what we have found here. Zara Dancer is first up coming over from New Zealand after competing in WFA G1, Group 2 and Listed events. Having run well over 1400 and 2100 in the past, we have confidence that this horse off 58 has a great shot.
Currently paying $17.00 fixed – Should drift out more
Race 4 – Pick – Thankgodyou’rehere
There are quite a few horses with a chance in this one including Neeson, Thankgodyou’rehere, Winter King and even Izababe at long odds.
Performing well first up, Thankgodyou’rehere should sneak this one home.
Currently paying $5.80 fixed
Race 5 – Pick – Win for Wilson
We don’t know who Wilson is but we think it will be done for him in this race. We know this horse can last and in equal class, gains a 4kg advantage from last up where it only lost by 1.8l. Expect Win for Wilson to try and lead this one up or sit posted up the front.
Currently paying $17.00 fixed
Race 6 – Pick – Hawk Island
This is a fairly long shot in this race.. but on times and previous record, Hawk Island stands a chance at this price on a very heavy track.
Having won 6 of 10 with 1 place to go with that on heavy, Hawk Island can’t be overlooked. Expect a place at least.
Currently paying $31 fixed
Saver bet: Sacred Choice currently paying $8 fixed
Race 7 – Pick – Pane In The Glass
Expecting Pane In The Glass to be over it’s slow starts and to get right into it this time as needed so that Williams can give it a good ride.
Will be there competing at the end and expect it to win!
Currently paying $5 fixed
Race 8 – Pick – Jersey Lily
The value pick of the day, Jersey Lily should be quite a bit shorter than the odds it is at right now, about 30% shorter infact. You must respect this class and Lily will definetly be there at the end.
Currently paying $10 fixed
