Welcome to The Profits very first race-day review. After every major meeting, we take a day for the dust to settle and then review what occurred and note the runs we want to follow going forward. We also review our results, but i’m not sure that’s something we should be focusing on in this type of review (they were great). The key results from such a review should be that you can identify and bet on any impressive runs that you may have missed for the upcoming feature races and to set some horses who are in for good campaigns in your blackbook. Any feedback is always appreciated as this process we are posting is a learning experience as it’s different to our internal review notes.
All race replays and sectionals are available for this meeting at the following link from www.racing.com.
Key Horses to follow from meeting
Tulsa – features
Dandino – features
Rising Romance – features
Petitis Filous – features
Sir Andrew – Similar/lesser class
Miss Rose de Lago – Similar/lesser class
Disposition – features
*Up in Sydney the three follows from the card would be Silverball, Winx and Exosphere
Flemington Race 1
Very fast race. Parcel made a move to the outside rail which from my track walking was no disadvantage, but with the time run Parcel didn’t have any tactical advantage.
The other group raced in two packs, one closer to the middle of the track, but in my opinion, they were in significantly worse ground than that the eight horses closer to the rail were in, especially in the final 400m.
Petitis Filous is a star, not much else needs to be said. This is a horse that will measure up going forward at the top level over sprint distances.
Super Cash was a surprise run for 2nd and was sitting out the back most the race… was a very good run and worth a follow forward.
Take Pride and My Poppette can both run well in their next starts.
Serenade in worse ground was very good all the way to the line, think the 1200m next start would help.
Mis Idyllic was in some really terrible ground for mine and was an impressive run all things considered, could see sharp improvement next start.
Parcel gets a forgive.
Thurlow goes into the sack.
Horses to follow
Petitis Filous in any race.
Serenade up to 1200m and beyond
Super Cash in similar grade without Petitis Filous in the race.
Flemington Race 2
No spring stars in this race.
Albonetti in the past has shown brilliance and is a horse we have continued to follow, but doesn’t have the required turn of foot to sit out the back. An unadvised move forward today saw Albonetti get a run just off the speed win with ease. Crafty Cruiser continues to do what Crafty Cruiser does and run well. Sir Mako clearly the follow horse outside of Albonetti and those are the two you should be looking to back in similar class going forward.
Horses to follow
Albonetti (good barrier critical going forward)
Sir Mako
Flemington Race 3
Are there any Spring feature winners in this one? I think there is one that we spotted and it seems most others have also.
Gold Busker set a steady tempo out front. Lizard Island got a very nice run just off them but Bon Aurum looked to have it won at the 300m the way the horse loomed up and that is what happened.
Snoopy was well backed and didn’t get any luck in running.
Lizard Island did work to get over from a wide barrier, sat just off them but if you look where the other in the top 4 finished, they were 9th and beyond. It was a very good effort and worth following especially how the horse stuck it out all the way to the line.
El Greco was game to the line again for 3rd and will continue to be consistently there or there abouts.
Odyssey Moon was rather disappointing, may just not be a top class horse in reality.
Tulsa is the one you want to follow forward. Never got any luck, got out and put in some devastating sectionals finishing off with a 11.28 final 200m – next best was 11.54.
Prince of Brooklyn is done and off for a spell. Disappointing from a horse that had such talent.
Horses to follow
Tulsa (features)
Lizard Island
Flemington Race 4
A low confidence race for us with a fair few of unknowns, and it occured as we predicted with a double figure odds runner winning it in Kinglike.
They all decided to race close to the rail in this one after seeing the first, at least they learned!
Raphael’s Cat and Black Vanquish led it up but Black Vanquish fell out very quickly. Raph’s Cat looked the winner at the 300m as Ready for Victory was disappointed for a run but Raph’s Cat got swamped late with Kinglike coming over the top of them – time was fast so every reason for this to occur.
Puritan ran into 4th and should be winning a race in lower grade if they decide to go back.
Reemah put in some solid sectionals late and may have needed the run, could get fitter the next two starts.
Sectionals from Kinglike and Ready for Victory late hard to ignore…
Horses to follow
Kinglike – any track – features
Rapahel’s Cat – would be better suited by Caulfield or Moonee Valley with racing style
Ready for Victory – Think this horse would best be suited by Caulfield rather than the straight – or at least a wider barrier would help! Needs a no excuse run
Puritan – Go back down in grade and get another easy win
Flemington Race 5
Mighty Like’s race was over at the start when the hores knuckled, you hardly ever see them finish top 6 after that occurs.
As expected with Jac Bay in the race, the speed was on between him and Leebaz. Disposition got a dream run 5th in the run while 2nd favourite Yesterday’s Song got a horrible ride 3-wide no cover the trip!
It was all but over when Disposition was pulled out for a clear run with 400m to go and Oliver let him go 300m out and went boom. Akavoroun was a very good run for 2nd and would have loved the tempo. Mister Milton didn’t have the best luck in running and was an eye-catcher for 5th… he always is, never wins though.
Sir Andrew went around as the outsider in the field… his clearly got alot of talent and price on offer was a bit of a joke really. He blazed home for 4th with a 10.58 400m to 200m sectional – next best was 10.75 from Akavoroun and then a 11.48 final 200m – next best was 11.50 from Akavoroun. This was a race dominated by those sitting midfield and clearly this was the run of the race to follow especially when you consider what price he will go around in the next start.
Zebrinz is worth an honourable mention also – good run.
Horses to follow
Disposition – clearly a star and wants further
Sir Andrew – Back in class hopefully next start
Akavoroun
Flemington Race 6
Another fast tempo race setup by outsider Il Cavallo who finished near last.
Churchill Dancer is a good horse – Hayes continues to suggest he can keep going up and up in the ranks and he proved that today with such a gutsy win.
Under The Louvre was horrible last start and the run before that was also terrible. This was a massive run and improvement today, he was never a chance at the 200m but almost found a way… the one to follow.
Gregers sat on speed and was game to the line just missing by 0.3L. Definetly a good run and expect to see Gregers win this prep.
Lucky Hussler was given a horrible ride in my humble. You don’t sit on a sprinter in this field as long as Bossy did, give it all your urgency and get it home, He could have got it to the lead and tried to hang on, instead he tried to sit pretty and it cost him a place, not being able to get close in the end.
Rich Enuff is obviously the disappointment, gone a long way out. Think he is much better horse around a turn also to get the tactical gap on them. Oliver said he still has fitness to come.. we will see.
Horses to follow
Under The Louvre – Any class, even group 1. Ready to fire.
Churchill Dancer – will continue to go around a nice E/W price
Gregers – Would like to see them stick to this class – can get wins
Flemington Race 7
The feature race of the day, Fawkner won a tight race from Rising Romance who put in a huge run while Entirely Platnium just got 3rd after a super run out the front – had to work hard for it early as well – from Boban who had no luck. Happy Trails was a game run but didn’t have the legs late and Alpine Eagle had every chance for mine but wasn’t good enough.
Mongolian Khan is in for a good prep over further. Hi World goes into the sack.
Dandino who finished 14th was the eye-catcher for mine. The horse had no luck, but more importantly, it felt like they didn’t want it to have any luck and it was never whipped the whole race, finishing up the behind of Happy Trails 2.25L off a win.. I’ve been a massive hater of the horse in the past, but this horse is in for a big prep and is under the radar.
Horses to follow
Dandino – Futures markets get on – CC/MC
Fawkner – The real deal. Will give the Cox Plate a shake again this year… think he may just be going a little better as well!
Rising Romance – battled it out to the line after getting shuffled back in the run – not leading today just off the speed. Has gone to the next level in my opinion and looks to have a feature race in it.
Entirely Platnium – I was a non-believer in this horse going into the race, but you have to consider the early work the horse did to get to the front…. Hi World weakened out of it from the on speed run and so did Volkstok. Brave run.
Boban – Had no luck, probably should have won. Doesn’t get further than this.. will get weaker fields than this deeper into spring as the quality ones like Fawkner and Rising Romance and Happy Trails go up and up in distance.
Flemington Race 8
Hot speed on early set this one up for those out the back to run on with 13th/11th and 9th positioned horses in the run filling the top 3 places.. but Miss Rose de Lago at huge odds continued to stay on with Cosmic Endeavour who was 3-wide the trip from closer to the speed also and Vezalay was decent too for 6th from on speed.
Could run this race again 5 times and get 5 different winners I imagine. Amicus was a much shorter priced chance than markets suggested.
Noble Protector was clearly the disappointment, but was it ever that short a favourite having never run the distance previously? No it wasn’t especially first up! Do forgive going forward that run but it was certainly disappointing with a good trail run.
There are certainly a few handy horses here, but i’m not sure there is any superstar outside of the potential Noble Protector has… all handy but no superstar.
Horses to follow
Miss Rose de Lago – They know her level of class and how she runs… she is an on speed horse and she can tough it out to the line even off a brutal tempo – will win this prep again if they continue on in this class or lesser.
Amicus – Closing sectionals hard to ignore, Monstered the line and you just can’t buy the heart to win a finish like that
Flemington Race 9
Strange race to end the day – as always seems to happen.
Iggimacool was a drifting favourite with money coming for He or She and Observational late.
Taiyoo couldn’t get a spot so was set alight to go forward and set up speed in the race. Garud from 3rd in the run stuck on well to finish top 3 but never close to winning.
Iggimacool got a very nice ride from Bossy ridden to save ground for luck as they all came off the rail for some reason. He or She took the opposite route and went 5-7 deep costing it valuable position and lengths – both were near each other around turn.
He or She put in some very strong sectionals from the 400 to 200m but Iggi had saved enough to run a better final 200m sectional and to hold off He or She.
Extra Zero continues to run well and grabbed 4th.
De Little Engine over the unsuitable distance was a nice run.
Taiyoo isn’t a leader and was never given a chance, but all things considered with 61k the 4.7L 8th is a good run, expect better next start from a better barrier over further.
Horses to follow
Top 4 will be competing for wins their next starts.
