Welcome to The Profits very race-day review for Caulfield on 26 September 2015. After every major meeting, we take a day for the dust to settle and then review what occurred and note the runs we want to follow going forward. The key results from such a review should be that you can identify and bet on any impressive runs that you may have missed for the upcoming feature races and to set some horses who are in for good campaigns in your blackbook. Any feedback is always appreciated as this process we are posting is a learning experience as it’s different to our internal review notes.
All race replays and sectionals are available for this meeting at the following link from www.racing.com. I have also linked in directly to each race from the name of the race.
It’s worth noting that as identified last week, we came off the least confident race day in the last 3 months and results were as expected… this week was the second most confident and resulted in very strong results including the 24x money back Quaddie result in VIC and more than double that in NSW.
Key Horses to follow from meeting
Afleet Esprit
Tristram’s Sun
Miss Gunpowder
Tulsa
Snoopy
Mongolian Khan
Kenjorwood
Caulfield Race 1
We came into the day expecting those that found the rail early would get the results and the first race saw just that with Afleet Esprit 1 back the rail claiming Japhils in a photo. Japhils set a very strong tempo as expected with the low weight, but it was the side of Dylan Dunn on Afleet Esprit from the inside barrier, not having to spend much gas to get a spot early, that saw him get further forward than speed mapped resulting in a win. Afleet Esprit was $12 out to $20 but even when getting the dream run, was $13 in-play around the turn. Pilly’s Wish was a good 5 lengths off them with 300m to go and was a large run. Pittsburgh Flyer was ridden for luck and found none the whole straight running into backs of runners and has to be forgiven for a solid effort.
Horses to follow
Afleet Esprit – in higher grade
Japhils – Caulfield/Moonee Valley similar grade
Pilly’s Wish – Around this grade, better suited to Sandown/Flemington
Horses to forgive
Pittsburgh Flyer
Caulfield Race 2
The rubbish race of the day gave us a bit of entertainment with the favourite Kansas Sunflower being ridden an absolute no-chance run well beaten by 5 lengths. 3rd favourite Loved Up was pulled out of the race with over 600m to go which added another element to the race. Gloryland got a nice time out the front setting a hot tempo with Maraqaba well backed 2nd favourite with a trail, but clearly didn’t handle the pace. Kansas Sunflower was taken out after pulling all the way from the 1000m and pushed to the front… no surprise this tempo set it up for Firehouse Rock and Bondeiger who were out the back on the turn. Firehouse Rock showed more turn of foot to pass Gloryland at the 100m and Bondeiger came home late and was interfered with in the final 25m by Firehouse Rock, but the stewards dismissed the appeal. Firehouse Rock won this, but it wasn’t a great race and won’t rate highly either.
Horses to follow
Bondeiger – over further
Horses to forgive
Loved Up
Caulfield Race 3
A race against the pattern due to stupid brutal pace being set out the front in a questionable ride from Shinn. Even with the pace, it looked as though Kuro was home for all money until laying in significantly in the final 50m and throwing away any chance to hold on. Hard Stride was very disappointing from on speed. Sabatini who has shown class in the past was the beneficiary coming from 3rd last on the turn to claim the race from The Monstar who sat midfield and was ridden for a bit of luck and got it and was a tough 2nd. The eye-catcher was Tristram’s Sun with 51kg from the back… he went 2 horses wider than Sabatini and was huge after a good trial win… at $300-1 on Betfair as well, whoever took the horse to place would be annoyed! I’m not surprised Tristam’s Sun enjoyed the tempo, he has gone head to head in the past with Charmed Harmony and ran bold 2nds a few times. We have to mention The Quarterback who was 3 lengths off the last horse with 500m to go, ridden for a bit of luck ran home well enough for a 1.3L 6th
Horses to follow
Kuro
Sabatini
Tristram’s Sun
Horses to forgive
None
Caulfield Race 4
A race of tactics, Black Tomahawk got the win by injecting speed into the race and making it a staying test with a strong ride from Bossy. Albonetti was slow away and pushed along but unlike last start, from the outside barrier, found it very hard to get the lead and did a load of work to get a spot having to race 3-wide for a very long time. Shenzhou steeds did the same amount of work and did pull up with an issue post race. Not much really needs to be said about this race apart from the ride on Black Tomahawk won the race and Excess Knowledge is a decent horse, but you would be disgusted if you owned it that it couldn’t win that.
Horses to follow
None
Horses to forgive
Shenshou Steeds
Caulfield Race 5
Miss Gunpowder was packed in the final 24 hours before the race into favourite and from the mid-outside barrier was pushed on early to get a fairly easy lead from Jameka. Payroll was 3-wide the trip while Pasadena Girl was the rails 2 off the leader and Stay With Me was 3 out 5 back. Stay with Me made the early move when Payroll did but got shuffled back. Payroll headed Miss GunPowder just before entering the straight but Miss Gunpowder was very strong late kicking home. Pasadena Girl was a solid run for 5th not getting out until it was really too late while Stay With Me was a very flat run. Super Cash and Jameka battled away for 3rd and 4th. Boy of boy there is only one horse i want to be on in the Thousand Guineas and it is Miss Gunpowder… if she draws barrier 2-5 she won’t be getting beat for mine. Stay With Me’s previous run would be enough on a biased to backmarkers track to have the horse in it, but gee that was impressive. Payroll may be worth watching also.
Horses to follow
Miss Gunpowder
Horses to forgive
Pasadena Girl
Caulfield Race 6
What an exciting contest. It looked as if Dal Cielo was going to lead from start to finish setting a strong tempo after jumping well from barrier 2 and leading it up, but Bon Aurum who settled worse than midfield had something to say about it running Dal Cielo down late while Tulsa also claimed Dal Cielo on the line for 2nd from dead last in the run. Ready for Victory was the false favourite as expected and never got close. Mr Individual was very disappointing looking to ahve every chance but just didn’t finish off. Snoopy looked to be in a very good spot coming around the turn and stuck on strongly but took a fair while to get going. He was good enough to follow forward i’d say. Odyssey Moon also flashed home late but was no match for Tulsa who he had a length on at the 400m.
Horses to follow
Tulsa
Snoopy
Bon Aurum
Dal Cielo
Horses to forgive
None
Caulfield Race 7
As expected the speed was on in The Underwood with The Cleaner leading them out. As expected also, the first 3 places were filled by horses in the first 4 runners throughout the race, that’s generally how these races with The Cleaner are won. Barrier 1 was perfect for The Cleaner, while Fawkner and Mourinho from barriers 2 and 4 also got away well for perfect spots on the speed. Hi World went forward early with the Cleaner but didn’t enjoy the pace. Dandino and Weary pinged out the back. The Cleaner got his way with the lead the whole way. Mourinho got a got length on Fawkner a the 800m and was able to get close to The Cleaner at the 500m which is how you beat him. He may have stat on The Cleaner a little too long but he kept going from the 400m and just missed. Mourinho hung out and almost threw it away. Sectional wise, Fawkner wasn’t 100% for mine shown by the 600 and 400 sectionals where he didn’t have the turn of foot Mourinho had, but his closing sectional was huge considering the run. Mongolian Khan was a very nice run also in for 4th enjoying the tempo which is no surprise. Contributer was well beaten as expected, false 2nd favourite in the race. He really doesn’t enjoy these sectionals. Dandino was fair from the back for 8th and up to 2400m in a Caulfield Cup from an inside barrier could be a force to reckon with.
Horses to follow
Mongolian Khan (Anything over further)
The Cleaner (Run before the Cox Plate)
Fawkner (Run before the Cox Plate)
Horses to forgive
Dandino (over further)
Contributer (Anything without The Cleaner in it)
Caulfield Race 8
A front runner dominated race outside of Under The Louvre who came from 10th in running, top 5 were filled by horses that sat out the front in the top 5. Strawberry Boy had to do a load of work to get the early lead from Stratum Star who got a very strong position. Rich Enuff pushed on early also but fell out of it very early. Charmed Harmony was a huge run having to sit 3-wide off them. Disposition had the dream run in the rails 1 back spot and even got the run at the right time. Under The Louvre was only 1 length off them with 400m to go stoked up for a run on the turn gaining huge ground, he even hit the front at the 100m before laying out and throwing the race away, prehaps his run ended also? Disposition had the lead with 25m to go but Stratum Star kicked back and got a very close photo. Lucky Hussler was blocked for runs in the straight and didn’t have a load of luck ridden on and ridden on, he got out the final 150m and then got interferance again, ran 6th but could argue that he should have been in the finish.
Horses to follow
Stratum Star (Group 1s)
Lucky Hussler (Group 1s)
Under The Louvre (Group 1s)
Charmed Harmony (now gone for a spell)
Horses to forgive
Lucky Hussler
Caulfield Race 9
A race with Kenjorwood and Jacquniot Bay spells a fast tempo and that’s what we got with Takenja who ran dead last setting a strong tempo… he couldn’t handle it and had no issues. Top four all sat within the top 5, no surprise as i suggested earlier with The Cleaner’s race). Kenjorwood got a sit outside of Takenja while Jacquinot Bay got a great run off the back of the leader. Extra Noble sat just off Kenjorwood and He or She was 3-wide alot of the trip and Iggimacool behidn them. Kenjorwood got the lead before the turn and Jacnquinot got his run also on the inside. Extra Noble looked the winner at the 200m but then failed on his run, Kenjorwood and Jac Bay were fighting it out late but Kenjorwood was too strong. He or She really wasn’t suited by the tempo either as expected but was still strong for 4th. The 1st and 2nd horse gave the 3rd horse 6.5kg and 8kg today!
Horses to follow
Jacquinot Bay – Anything with pace on or where he has a very wide barrier or inside barrier. Wants further
Kenjorwood – Anything with pace on or where he has a very wide barrier or inside barrier.
Horses to forgive
He or She
