Welcome to The Profits very race-day review for Caulfield on 17 October 2015. After every major meeting, we take a day for the dust to settle and then review what occurred and note the runs we want to follow going forward. The key results from such a review should be that you can identify and bet on any impressive runs that you may have missed for the upcoming feature races and to set some horses who are in for good campaigns in your blackbook. Any feedback is always appreciated as this process we are posting is a learning experience as it’s different to our internal review notes.
Key Horses to follow from meeting
Fame Game
Sacred Eye
Race 1
Andrioli got over early from a wide barrier and dropped anchor. Italy sat off/outside all the way but Andrioli given a very good ride controlled the tempo and won well. Silent Sedition the favourite was well backed 4 rows back and wasn’t good enough to make up the ground required 4-wide from the 500m having given the leaders 6 lengths at the 300m. Silent Sedition at Flemington the obvious follow.
Follow:
Silent Sedition – at Flemington
Race 2
Run in a similar time to the first race of the day, Mahuta looked a promising type off the last start 6 length win in easier company and proved it toughing out a win over Holler from on speed. Takedown was horrible today and never looked to be comfortable the whole trip. Favourite Santa Ana Lane sat out the back and closed in on the field well enough late but not genuine enough to place still.
Follow:
The first two home in similar grade but not much harder.
Race 3
Speed was on today and Ball of Muscle led it up with Rain Affair. Strange to see Rain Affair run so well but did manage 4th! Kuro was a disappointing run not on speed today from the poor barrier. Kinglike ran as expected for mine, didn’t handle the step up in class. The speed suited the class in the race Lumosty and he looked home but Eclair Choice stuck on and got a dead-heat. I wasn’t impressed enough to suggest any of these runners are worth a follow forward.
Follow:
None
Forgive:
Kuro
Race 4
Clear intention from the get go by Berry on Ballatyne to make this a staying test to beat the two favourites. While it didn’t work, they did get the two favourites beat with Dawnie Perfect. Top two clearly good.
Follow:
Need to see another run from Dawnie Perfect
Race 5
There wasn’t as much speed in this one as expected with Ayers Rock and Lizard Island both on the speed today. Sacred Eye took a gun run just off the speed and you always wanted to be on. Lizard Island had to do a load of work to get the spot outside of Ayers Rock and it told in the final 100m of the race… was a very brave second. Sacred Eye was clearly the best horse in the race up to this distance and with the gun run wasn’t being beaten it felt like it. Etymology with a rails run inside of Sacred Eye was held up for runs but finished off well for 3rd. Get The Picture from the back finished off nicely also.
Follow:
Sacred Eye – Can win a big one
Lizard Island – Did a load of work – good run
Race 6
Strangely run race. Leebaz on speed as expected and didn’t put a load of speed on. Fenway worked forward which was strange to me and was gone on the turn and didn’t pull up with any issues. Stratum Star got the gun run the whole way while Dibayani out the back Hung out from the 800m and couldn’t be controlled. It was Stratum Star’s with ease and the horse did handle the distance. Awesome Rock was a very nice run again, just needs to not run into a star to win.
Follow:
Awesome Rock – Similar or lesser grade
Forgive:
Fenway/Dibayani
Race 7
Not alot to say about this one. Vashka won it with a great on speed ride from McDonald. The concern for Under The Louvre backers was how far the horse would get back and that is what happened from barrier 12 today, too far back, had to go for a miracle ride and couldn’t make up the distance. Both the winner and UTL are smart horses going forward.
Follow:
Vashka
Under The Louvre
Race 8
Is Catkins done as a horse? The race was run to suit those on speed and Catkins had the run to win if she was at her best and she clearly wasn’t. La Passe was given a ride inside of her and took the rails and stole the win late just beating out Solicit. Jessy Belle was huge from the back considering the race tempo and is the horse to follow, still flying.
Follow:
Jessy Belle
Race 9
The Caulfield Cup! Mongolian Khan was just way too good today. The top two in finish both drew very good barriers and got nice spots in the run while third placed Our Ivanhowe got a very nice spot in running also from an awkward barrier 4 back the outside. Gust of Wind was also in a good spot. When you look at it really, the top 4 came from midfield or closer or were ridden for luck like Trip to Paris. Monglian Khan had the gun run and had it won at the turn for mine. The early move on Our Ivanhowe was correct and shows how well the horse will be suited by a Melbourne Cup. Set Square and Royal Descent were both found out by the distance and speed and so was Magnapal and Magicool. Snow Sky was held up for runs at the wrong time and so was Gust of Wind and Rising Romance. Fame Game was the one that never got given a run, on purpose? Flew home.. watch out Melbourne Cup! The ride on Trip to Paris was beautiful and worth a re-watch… but not as good as the ride on Mongolian Khan. Hail king Opie.
Follow:
Fame Game
Our Ivanhowe
Mongolian Khan
Race 10
Not much tempo in the race with a slower than average time run considering late in the day firmer track. Vezalay got the lead with relative ease and Miss Promiscuity came over from outside. The Messina Nymph was the disappointment of the race never looking settled. Tuscan Sling was 4-wide on the turn and finished off solidly for 3rd. Brook Road was the forgive run whipped just once in the straight never getting a clear run. Vezalay doesn’t win often but was a good win. I Love It a strong run from the back also.
Follow:
None
Forgive:
Brook Road
