Welcome to The Profits very race-day review for Caulfield on 10 October 2015. After every major meeting, we take a day for the dust to settle and then review what occurred and note the runs we want to follow going forward. The key results from such a review should be that you can identify and bet on any impressive runs that you may have missed for the upcoming feature races and to set some horses who are in for good campaigns in your blackbook. Any feedback is always appreciated as this process we are posting is a learning experience as it’s different to our internal review notes.
Key Horses to follow from meeting
Tarzino
Serene Majesty
Amralah
Mongolian Khan
Lucky Hussler
Caulfield Race 1
A few slow into stride but all got away fine for mine. A fair sprint was put on early and a few horses got caught wide. Pearl Congenial sat one off outside the leader and looked the winner for the majority of the straight only let go at about the 300m.. a bit all over the place… the clear WOW was Miss Rock from the back flying home… Layed in as well from 5-6 wide to 3 wide. Magical Milly who was slowest away of the lot came home nicely late for 5th. Highland Beat was blocked for runs when it mattered in the straight and should have probably been in the finish
Follow:
Missrock
Valliano – over further
Forgive:
Highland Beat
Caulfield Race 2
Horrible rating race. Alpha Miss ran a career peak to win while Lankan Rupee ran WELL BELOW a career peak and still ran within 1.5L of a win. Didn’t like the way Newitt rode Lankan Rupee the whole race off the rail either. Shiraz was disappointing, clearly came to end of prep not letting down. Alpha Miss no chance in Manikato for mine on that run.
Follow:
None
Caulfield Race 3
Speed was expected to be on in this race and that is what we got with Invincible Heart, Serenade, Secret Agenda and Harlem River pushing the agenda. Viddora missed the start and settled last. Secret Agenda was 3-wide the trip never able to cross over. Irada got a nice spot in the middle of runners while Serene Majesty sat dead last coming around the turn and wasn’t pushed out either… jockey was happy to even lose a length or two. Irada never got a run in the straight and ran on and just missed 3rd… but the race was all about Serene Majesty who put in smashing late sectionals with 11.31 from 400-200 (next best in race 11.54) and 11.61 final 200m (next best 12.14!!!). Sensational.
Follow:
Serene Majesty
Forgive:
Irada
Caulfield Race 4
As expected the lack of natural speed in the race saw a really slow time run in the race, which was quite stupid by those on speed. It was set up for one horse and it absolutely bolted in, Amovatio. Good Value was the big disappointment of the race but did pull up with a minor tendon strain and EIPH. Not alot to say about this race apart from the fact Tristram’s Sun will go well over further and so will The Bowler.. they need more pace on. Amovatio is the horse to continue to back… it should have won by 3+ lengths.
Follow:
Amovatio
Forgive:
Good Value
Caulfield Race 5
It was all about Amralah this race. As if a 3 length win wasn’t good enough, the horse also lost its hind plate during the race. Amralah jumped poorly and has to be bustled along to get a spot during the race but was out the back with just 2 horses behind, not ideal when you are expected to be on speed. They set a decent enough clip out the front with Bohemian Lily (ran for 3rd so it suited) but it was all about the move at the 1300m on Amralah going around them when they had dropped anchor. He didn’t let it occur, he wanted a true staying test and it occured. He set the tempo and just destroyed them from there. Excess Knowledge stayed on strongly for 2nd but was well beaten… Excess Knowledge could go well in the Group race on Cup day you would think.
Follow:
Amralah
Excess Knowledge
Forgive:
None
Caulfield Race 6
Strangely run race out the front and that cost the front runners their chances with the first four in running filling the final four places. Fawkner did a lot of work early to get a position on speed kept out by Pornichet for a long time with Entirely Platnium finally crossing 600m into it. Happy Trails had the run of the race for mine with a gun spot infront of Criterion and Kermadec. They dropped anchor around the 1100m mark and didn’t lift it up for the next 500m which gave the back markers every chance to get within 3 lengths of them and to make early runs from the 600m with Happy Trails just 1.5 lengths off Fawkner at the 450m. Criterion got the best run of those behind Happy Trails loomed and took the race in a tough battle down the straight. Kermadec was game but Mongolian Khan beat him from the same position from the 400m. Mongolian Khan is the eye-catcher heading out of this towards the Caulfield Cup. He was caught behind Pornichet and inside Contributer at the 600m inside of Happy Trails, which meant he was pushed behind Happy Trails going into the straight and had to go around both Happy Trails and Criterion to get a run… He savged the line and only missed half a length… is wanting the extra distance ahead 10m after the line.
Follow:
Mongolian Khan
Criterion
Forgive:
Fawkner
Caulfield Race 7
You don’t need to say much about this race in reality. They set up a very strong speed out the front. Jacuinot Bay our value bet in the race was huge – 3 wide the trip – staying on for 7th beating home all other onpacers outside of the class in Stratum Star. Disposition and Stratum Star were both great runs but Lucky Hussler had it won from about the 300m, it was all over and you knew it, huge run and the ratings back the fact it was a huge run with top weight. Flamingo Star was a decent run also from out the back while Ninth Legion could win in listed/open class next start. Noble Protector is done as a horse this Spring.
Follow:
Lucky Hussler – in harder class
Forgive:
Jacquinot Bay
Caulfield Race 8
There was a risk that it would occur, and it happened, the speed was on. They decided to push the tempo on Take Pride… a bold move 1100m up to 1600m if you ask me and the horse ran a respectable 5th and screwed up the chances for on speed runners Badawiya and MissgunPowder. The race was set up for back markers with Stay With Me given a gem or a ride looking the winner at the top of the straight. Jameka was huge for 2nd and was well backed all day while Pasadena Girl ran fairly for 4th. No real surprises in race.
Follow:
Stay With Me – will get further
Forgive:
Leaders
Caulfield Race 9
With Dal Cielo taking a sit today, no one was willing to take up the speed early so Bowman on the favourite Press Statement went forward from a wide barrier, got the sectionals he wanted and just went BANG. They had their pants pulled down with the way the race was run. He rode Press Statement like the best horse and that is what he was. What can we learn from this race? Everyone mapped the race wrongly and we would have all been on at $2s knowing Press Statement was leading i’d imagine. Press Statement was ridden wider in the straight as well which was the key. Tarzino is the horse we just want to focus on going forward with not many horses out of this going onto further targets. Tarzino was a huge run from the back and is heading to the Derby. Sovereign Nation could go well over further going forward also.
Follow:
Tarzino – Big follow
Forgive:
None
Caulfield Race 10
Three clear chances on paper and it figured that way. In Style missed the start by 5 lengths and as a one dimension on-speeder, that was the horses race run. The horse was going off in the stalls and was in there too long. Wawail got the dream run on speed while Politeness was close enough stalking out 2nd last. Wawail looked the leader a long way out and even passing the 100m looked home, but Politeness was huge late and is in career best form. Big win. I thought the run of Bring Me The Maid in the ‘lesser’ ground late was good considering the track firmness… a bit of rain and i’ll be on!
Follow:
Politeness
Bring Me The Maid on wetter surfaces
Forgive:
In Style
