Happy Trails: You know how much I love this bloke, he always trys.. but not first up. 1 win from 9 first up runs tells you his best later in his preps. Also 9 runs from 0 wins on a slow or heavy track in the past tells you he is best with a good track and only with a soft 5. Prefer him over further.
Dissident: Couldn’t touch him first up over 1200m at a track like The Valley he had never tried and was proven correct in just not betting the race (couldn’t have found the winner either though). Caught 3-wide, he did a lot wrong and he was still game to the line. 1400m is his distance. He loves Caulfield. He Loves WFA. He peaked here 2nd up last prep at course and distance. Maps well from barrier. Only concern is track condition today. Has won previously on a Soft 7.. not sure any wetter will be ideal for him.
Mourinho: Cracker of a win last start at Moonee Valley. Positive barrier again today will have him in a gem of a spot and you have to believe a step up to 1400m is better than 1200m for the horse. Best runs seen on dryer tracks though a concern.
Toydini: Massive wraps for this horse who is in his 2nd prep with Hawkes team. Wayne felt he was going well enough but he didn’t fill me with confidence. Best run last prep was on heavy over 1400m at Randwick. WIll be a long way back.
Bagman: Hit the line strongly last start at Rosehill and was a follow-forward run. Not sure he wants it super wet but he does handle any surface. Barrier 2 will have the last go at them and is consistent as the day is long.
Beaten Up: First up for 1 and a half years last start I thought his run was massive. Well suited back to 1400m today and didn’t show any issues to the wet track. Waller believes they probably go back but if he reads the mapping correctly, surely he pushes forward and tries to steal it. If runs a peak performance, can actually win this.
Mouro: Beaten on the post last start by Jac Bay, not the worst form going around. Back to 1400m an interesting move today. Best runs clearly been on dryer surfaces a massive issue for the horse. Not sure he was well weighted here anyway.
Sonntag: Can handle the wet. Saw his best over much further than this. Owners would be happy by a top 6 finish.
Aeronatuical: I thought his last start run at Sandown had a lot of merit to it. Unfortunately he hates the wet and shows his best on dry ground. Has a win in him this prep.
Star Rolling: Finally finds himself a wet surface today. Can win first up based on WFA-G2 win firs tup last prep at course and distance. Maps to get a front spot today.
Entirely Platinum: Owners would be happy with the surface today. Going well back home for Hawkes stable and Wayne confident of a strong run today. Maps well from barrier 6. Key chance.
Spillway: Loves to tease and run well without winning. Best runs last prep were over further than this for mine. Last win was on a slow track so surface no issue based on that. Barrier 1, will need luck to get a run.
Real Love: Won 4 of last 6 with two placing other than that. Best runs were over much further and no wet form to speak of.
Petrology: I thought his first up run was solid. Ran home nicely and will appreciate the run. Only ever won on Good but goes fine on rain affected also. Will take a few more runs to reach peak for mine. Gets 3kg on Java today key.
Java: Looks poorly weighted if i’m honest today. Failed only go on Heavy. Keeps progressing but hard to have a 3YO in this class.
Comments: My views of this race will change depending on the surface conditions. Dissident is top pick unless we get a track wetter than a Soft 7. Bagman and Beaten Up both look strong chances at big odds while Entirely Platinum is the key 2nd pick in race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Dissident to win. Smaller bet Entirely Platinum.
