Moonovermanhattan: The wetter the better for this talented colt. Yes he goes well on Good but he goes even better on wet. 1400m still a little too short for his best though which is 1600+
Hong Kong Captain: Super win last start at Moonee Valley toughing out the win. Handing half a kilo to Profit Share today though who I thought was a much better run in the race and proved it winning next start. Will need a gem from Walker to win this from barrier for mine.
Magicool: Has won on rain affected track in the past which works out well for today. Best run last prep over 1800m not 1400m is the key for mine in this race, just can’t have him.
Profit Share: Super win last start at Sandown when given a gem of a ride by Payne. Tricky barrier today, she will need to produce another gem of a ride to get a solid spot close enough without getting caught wide. Key chance today and has won previously on soft tracks.
Firehouse Rock: Strong run first up in much easier grade at Flemington. Probably looking for further if i’m honest to find his best, but yard aim for this. No wet form to speak of.
Bascule: Pulled up last start with breathing issues so have to forgive the run. Meets Profit Share today 1kg better off for that excuse and is undefeated two runs on soft tracks to date. Much harder race here though.
Sarajevo: Very good horse based on last prep runs when should have probably beaten Scissor Kick home. Won first up on slow so no issue with wet tracks. Will be far back.
Affirmation: Had his chance behind Java first up and wasn’t good enough on a good track. Back to wet today and looks ideal for this guy who loves it wet. Huge chance even from barrier.
Zebulon: Promised a lot the first prep we saw him and then last prep under-delivered. Handled wet track no issue and was probably his best run on record. Best seen over further. Will be out the back.
Convincible: Good win two back at Flemington. Last start strangely led and did him in. Best seen over shorter on dryer and in lesser class.
San Nicasio: A little surprised today by the price being bet on this guy. His first up run was fine, but last start left a lot to be desired. Struggle to see him a contender even at weights.
Chill Party: Hard horse to rate. Ran 0.2L 2nd to Petrology first up last prep when unlucky not to win before failing 2nd up. No wet track form but has ability… best seen over further.
Belflyer: Showed nothing last start and shouldn’t measure up based on previous form. Will like it wet though.
The Ultimatum: Average win last prep and last start showed not much at all.
Comments: Two horses stand out above the rest in Profit Share and Affirmation while Chill Party is the value based on formlines.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Two horse play. Backing Profit Share for 2 units and Affirmation for 1 unit.
