Chautauqua: $1.60 shot and the rain is falling as i’m writing this… his record on very rain affected tracks is two runs for 1 placing… while his best runs have clearly been on good to soft 5 range. Yes he looks a superstar, no question about that at all, but these horses aren’t exactly mugs either.
Flamberge: Can produce a peak run out of the blue first up with 3 wins from 4. Goes very well on wet tracks also.
Richie’s Vibe: Horrible first up run over in Adelaide. Oliver on today but hard to back with confidence off that run. Did beat Moment of Change over 1200m in WFA-G2 two preps back.
Amaethon: Used to be his bet distance, found a win over 1600m last prep. Better on dryer tracks.
The Thief: Has to be considered a Trifecta/F4 chance the wetter it gets based on last start win.
Missy Longstocking: Got beaten by Straturbo first up… that is a very average formline to have. Not sure her best is the best form in this race and 0 form really on tracks wetter than soft 5 so all guess work.
Atmospherical: Making her way through the grades and got a nice straight course win to finish it last start at Flemington. Only run on heavy failed to get close.
Sumakaray: Goes well on all surfaces but best seen on good tracks for mine. Very disappointing last start and previous run out of the blue for mine. No thanks.
Eloping: Very talented sprinter and handles all surfaces. Weighted to be allowed to run it very fast out the front from barrier 1. Huge chance to knock them over.
Oakleigh Girl: Best runs seen on dryer surfaces but has run okay on wet. Eloping smashed her on slow last prep.
Comments: Chautauqua is a superstar but the ground may do the superstar in.. what beats it though? Chautauqua remains top pick but Eloping is the bet. Very happy to go with Eloping to place as the way to tackle this race.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 9
Strategy: Eloping to place.
