Smokin’ Joey: His last win was actually on a rain affected track so you can’t count him out at all today. barrier 7 he gets a nice run and when you consider he has been going well in Group company all prep with a small spell, he can fly over the top of these at his best.
Lidari: Showed his best form last prep over this distance. Had a spell since November… his best form has clearly been on rain affected tracks. Huge chance from barrier 4. Did test positive to Cobalt last prep a massive concern on form?
Big Memory: Never won at distance in the past. Oliver takes ride. Goes well at track and does handle the distance even though he is best over further. Goes well on all ground types.
Jacquinot Bay: Consistent type who is running well. Handles all surfaces and has the fitness edge on the field. Will appreciate a strong tempo as always and 57kg today. Don’t dismiss him.
Spurtonic: Best runs seen on good tracks and massive issue with rain today. Bet around. Also Waterhouse very poor record in Melbourne Metro the past year.
Amorino: Best runs clearly on good tracks but has won on a wet track before. Not sure his best wins this.
Bring Something: Decent type who is best suited over further. Does like it wet though.
Akzar: Very poor run last start but not a surprise to me. Last win was on a heavy track so is suited by rain today but 2000m back to 1600m and last win was on 2350m is questionable?
Escado: I thought his run first up at Sandown was a huge follow run. Had no favours and hit the like strongly. The wetter the better for this bloke and he will have last shot at them. Better barrier and he would be an even better chance.
Chester Road: Ran 5th in WFA-G2 behind Elite Belle two back… but that was peak run all prep and has been off 2 years before this prep. Best runs were seen on wetter tracks… not sure this is his distance.
Backstedt: Decent horse and beat Jacquinot bay three runs back… best seen on dryer tracks.
Comments: I’m loving the price on offer today for Escado. The wetter the better. He had to come from last and was a huge run first up over 1400m. Extra distance will suit and he will be even fitter for that run. Jacquinot Bay has the fitness edge on the rest of these today and he will be in the finish that i’m sure of… hard to count him out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Escado E/W
