Welcome to The Profits preview for Pakenham on 9 December 2017. Racing heads to Racing.Com Park at Pakenham this weekend for the Cup and the rain is around Thursday night with 5-15mm expected that should allow the track to remain within the deep soft range on the verge of heavy. Quietly confident of a positive day the way we are betting with some good value runners throughout the card. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Pakenham Race 4 – Wise Hero – 3 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.50.
Next Best Bet
Pakenham Race 5 – Jungle Edge – 4 units @ $2.70 to win
Best Each-Way
Pakenham Race 9 – Imperator Augustus – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.50
Best Value
Pakenham Race 6 – Our Bottino – 1 unit @ $16/$4.60
Pakenham Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Pakenham Race 1 – 1000m – O’Connor Beef 3YO BM70 Handicap
1. Elite Legacy: 2YO Handicap winner at Sandown 3-wide no cover. Failed next start and spelled. Back after 143 days and trialed nicely enough. Could be a great type.
2. Fully Maxed: Five runs last prep for 1 win first up in this grade and failed to place after that. Obviously much harder first up here again.
4. Je Suis Tycoon: Trial between runs this prep after only fair first up failed as favourite and then soft at Caulfield. Has to improve
5. Magnorum: Maiden winner first up at Mornington over distance on speed.
6. The Launcher: Moe Maiden winner and had a few weeks between runs.
7. Bel Sonic: Synthetic Maiden winner last prep. Trialled well on lead in.
8. Boom Chicka Boom: Cranbourne maiden winner by 5L last start when obviously well backed on the day.
9. Valente: Synthetic Pakenham winner to end last prep. Big jump in grade here.
10. She’s Our Gift: First up today but never won first or second up. Donald Classic winner two back but under pressure at the turn last start. Trialled nicely coming into this, Meech on.
11. Spirit of Aquada: First up here. placed but never won first up in the past. Couldn’t get a maiden win latest start.
12. Zoology: Only one run last prep with 1.25L 2nd to Procecution. Has to take on.
13. Miss Leonidas: Ended last prep with a win. Trialled between runs and respectable. Need more troops.
Comments: Wide open race and the scratching of Camila Lucinda removes a load of speed from the race. Je Suis Tycoon will get back from the barrier and has to be considered on best shown last prep. Drawn poorly, Miss Leonidas looks the type to make the step up here also. She’s Our Gift has to be respected off a good lead in trial while Boom Chicka Boom looks the one to beat.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Camila Lucinda E/W
Pakenham Race 2 – 1400m – Momentum Gaming F&M BM78 Handicap
1. Diamond Baroness: Three runs last prep but didn’t get within 3L of a win. Previous prep very good horse and won as favourite in harder than this leading all the way at Flemington and Pakenham. Blinkers on and 2kg claimer suggests stable are keen.
2. Red is the Rose: Hayes runner that failed to see out the 1500m last start at Sandown. Previous win over 1500m was very good so hard to tell what happened.
3. Stormsabrewing: Freshened up and back to 1400m here well back in class having competed in Mares and G3 grade the two runs prior. Get back run on type who can run time early and finish off late and also has elite closing speeds over the final 600m off slower tempos. Suited here.
4. Bonus D’oro: Will be getting back from the wide barrier and running on. Step up in grade here and hasn’t been going well enough for mine.
5. Soho Ruby: Flashed home first up over the unsuitable 1200m at Ballarat in what looked a good form race. Stays at same grade and gets the right race run here. Respect.
6. Whyouask: Ran home well enough last start from dead last beaten 4L behind Long Time Ago and Mrs Gardenia. Has to be respected here but pattern does make it hard and barrier doesn’t help.
7. Champagne Cocktail: Ran 5th last start at Cranbourne in easier grade. Step up in grade and distance, others preferred on form.
8. Evil Lil: Bendigo 5th and 5th the last two runs. Not shown me enough on either run to suggest the horse is back at top yet today. 51kg does make it at chance.
9. Macattack: Ran home well first up with 53.5kg but found one too good in Taddei Tondo which gives a bit of a query to the form for mine. This is a huge ask and requires the horse to peak to win.
10. Nicodame: Two runs this prep just beaten first up in a CL1 and then won a BM-64 last start. Going well enough but just like a few others, had to improve again.
11. Mina Harker: Won a lead in trial. Last prep struck through for a maiden win over 1900m. This looks too short for her?
Comments: I have three clear standouts on form that I want to be backing here. Diamond Baroness has had a big spell and drops well back in class. If the horse finds its best form, it can simply win this from the front. Stormsabrewing is the X factor in the race and will be in the finish no matter what happens tempo wise in the race running on late. Soho Ruby is the big improver today after a solid first up run. The horse ran very well first up and will improve lengths here. Most importantly, we are getting over $2 odds for either of the 3 to win so that’s good enough for me.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Soho Ruby, Stormsabrewing and Diamond Baroness which comes out to around $2 odds.
Pakenham Race 3 – 2000m – Hanson BM78 Handicap
1. Banksters Bonus: 10YO who failed in the Wodonga Cup on the lead in run. Last win was March 2016 at Oakbank over 2150m in easier grade. Would be a masterful training performance.
2. O’lonera: 9th in the Wodonga Cup 2nd up after not a terrible run prior either over 1400m. Steps up to right distances and in the past has always seemed to need a few runs.
3. Crafty Devil: Won two in a row before a fair 3rd at Ararat in the Cup behind Sonntag. Step back in grade here to that found at Moonee Valley when charged over the top of Electric Fusion. Respect.
4. Multitude: Trialled between runs to keep fit. Disappointed first up over 1600m in a BM-85 grade race at Randwick. Up to a winnable distance but I do have my reservations on the horse and a 2KG claimer suggests the stable do also.
5. Tucano: 2040m Moonee Valley winner back March 18 2016. Failed to fire last prep and not shown much this prep either.
6. Get the Picture: Was a good run and win as favourite over the border in Adelaide coming out of the Brilliant Jet MV race. Back in class here and has to be considered. Barrier only dramas.
7. Fontein Lad: Classic non-winner who continues to always run well. Last two starts had chances to win but just couldn’t get past some nice types.
8. Parthesia: G3 SA Classic 2nd place last prep yet couldn’t win the Dunkeld Cup last start gives me queries over the horse. Has Weir improvement written all over it. Big watch.
9. Casta: Respected by the yard. BM-70 2nd first up off 3 trials before a solid 5th on the wet. Distance increase a big bonus and ready to fire.
10. Dornier: Forgive run last start at Moonee Valley but was a solid run through the line. Respect but much harder here.
11. Stormy Shore: Strong win at Pakenham last start beating some average types. Short backup and step back in grade so to speak. Respect enough.
12. Shangani Patrol: Mornington maiden winner. Take on up to this.
Comments: Fontein Lad looks well under the odds again here and I just have to take it on. Casta up to this distance and Get The Picture coming back from Adelaide look well suited. O’Loneras’s best in the past would measure up here but there is a big query on that here. Get The Picture won well last start over in Adelaide and will get back and run on well.. best in past measures up here also. Crafty Devil has the X factor if positions more forward today. Open race. At the odds, I also have to take Multitude on.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Casta and Crafty Devil.
Pakenham Race 4 – 1000m – John Duff & Co BM78 Handicap
1. Leodoro: Ended last prep with a BM-84 win. Won 3 from 4 first up in the past and 2kg claim has him well in here. Barrier 1 has him sitting midfield and shouldn’t have trouble holding the position. Will need luck to get the runs at the right times but clearly a big chance.
2. Labuan Star: Won 2 from 5 this prep and coming off a poor run and defeat has been freshened up for this. Big step back in grade having won in this grade or better twice this prep. Best runs this prep have been on softer tracks.
3. Invincible Al: Solid win first up at MV when got all the luck. 3kg Claim has him obviously well in again from a good barrier and will need luck in running to win.
4. Nasdex: First up today and has never placed from 3 first up runs in the past. Coming off 182 day break. Go forward type.
5. King’s Command: First up for 273 days. Last prep best runs were clearly over 1400m and above. Has won 3 from 4 first up in the past but rarely been seen at 1000m is the query.
6. King River: Bar plates off first time. First run for nearly 400m days over from Ascot where he was running around in similar or better grade than this as favourite.
7. Runson: Failed to show a lot 3-wide no cover first up. Never placed 2nd up in the past but goes very well at the distance. Query out on form.
8. Angry Gee: Two solid trials heading into the first up run but showed nothing at all on the day. Williams takes ride for a reason.
9. Wise Hero: 210 days between runs. Last prep finished as $3.40 favorite in 3YO handicap grade running 11th when very poor in the yard. Previous run first up won well when not 100% in that grade. Looks well suited here. 2 first up runs in the past both won. On speed. Suited.
10. Making Mayhem: Trial on lead in. Two wins last prep but had 410 days off between runs a massive query. Hard to suggest here first up.
11. Star Stealer: First up for the Weir stable and has won 3 from 4 in the past. Last prep outside of first up win best was a close 2nd in this grade.
12. Essence of Terror: Forgive run last start at Moonee Valley held up for runs and ran on nicely enough. Barrier an issue but can run well here having won harder previous preps.
13. Wilde Gem: Won at course and distance last start on wetter surface. A few weeks between runs, respect enough. Not the best form on dry though.
14. Mr Optimistic: Trialled only fairly on lead in. Previous preps best runs were over further.
Comments: Very keen to bet here today. Doesn’t look an overly strong race form wise with only a few hopes on paper in Leodoro, Invincible Al, Wise Hero and Star Stealer. Wise Hero is the clear standout on my ratings and if the horse is close to 95% it’s the one to beat from on speed.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Wise Hero – 3 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.50.
Pakenham Race 5 – 1200m – Stabil-Lime Group Handicap
1. Jungle Edge: Two wins in a row on a Soft 5 and then a Heavy 9 in harder company than seen here. Up in weight but still only 60.5kg with the 3kg claim of Georgina. Up to 1200m ideal for mine as a distance and only a firm track stops the horse. With rain around all Thursday, I doubt Pakenham will be drying out to a Good track from here.
2. Chamois Road: Failed on the Heavy 8 last start at Ballarat and was really disappointing. Is better than last start and comes in here with a low weight.
3. Sirbible: Only a fair run first up over the 955m and looked a show of his former self the past 4 runs. Not for mine here.
4. Stellar Collision: Goes well first up from past runs and handles wet tracks. Well enough weighted to make an impact.
5. Tried and Tired: Two runs this prep. First up failed but last start was a really good run 3rd. Has to be respected on best especially on soft.
6. Smart Dart: Two runs this prep and has failed to fire a shot. Freshened up and more expected here but this is a step up again.
7. Onerous: Ran very well at Ballarat on Heavy in a strong race. Steps up again here. Has to improve.
8. Proud Wolf: Well backed but found one too good last start. 3kg claim has him well in at weights again.
9. Just Magical: Hard to suggest on first up run and previous preps.
10. One Hot Dane: Maiden winner two back. No thanks.
Comments: Jungle Edge will lead them around again with the heavy weight but will be very hard to get past once again. Short backup only query but the horse is obviously flying at home and finds another track wet enough to lead all the way on.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Jungle Edge – 4 units @ $2.70 to win
Pakenham Race 6 – 1600m – Schweppes David Bourke Memorial Handicap
1. Howard Be Thy Name: Not the worst return for a horse looking to come back and remain form first up. Up to 1600m here which is still short of his very best distance but he has won twice at it in the past and Weir has Allen aboard again. G3 and G1 winner for a reason. Has Weir improvement written all over it. Big watch.
2. Sadler’s Lake: Just ignore the first up run on Heavy 8. Looks fit and ready to fire up in distance here.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Continues to run well without winning. Back to a softer track is actually ideal for this guy and if he is ever going to get a win this prep it’s on a wetter track.
4. Our Bottino: Horsham Cup winner. Won three back at Morphetville also. Continues to run well.. only query is wet track.
5. Coldstone: Best seen on dryer tracks than this. I have to take him on here, follow next start.
6. Master Reset: Three runs this prep. Led them around last start and found a few too good. Has to step up again… best in past good enough but not for mine.
7. Riyadh: Ballarat 4th last start on a Heavy 8. Previous runs were decent over further than this while the Gold Nugget run four back was good enough to win this. Win won’t shock anyone.
8. Another Coldie: Won two in a row in country cups and form has been well and truly franked by Night’s Watch since. Going well and stays at 1600m. Big query on wet ground.
9. Carraig Aonair: Last 5 runs have been 2 wins a 3 seconds. Last start run down late at Flemington by Mr Garcia. Handles wet tracks.
10. Mr Gustavo: Got the inside run last start at Moonee Valley in easier to run down Royal Ace late. Form from the race is solid but this is a big jump in class. Hates wet.
11. Silvera: Won 3 from 4 on soft in the past. Last two runs have been solid but fairly beaten. Big jump in class for mine.
Comments: Our Bottino will lead them around today and looks very hard on paper to run down late. The pace will be true here so you can expect every horse to have their chances, but on the past three runs, Our Bottino looks well weighted here with 57kg.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Our Bottino – 1 unit @ $16/$4.60
Pakenham Race 7 – 2500m – Sportsbet Pakenham Cup
1. De Little Engine: Finished off strongly in the Ballarat Cup for 4th and will appreciate the ground and distance today.
2. Grey Lion: Steps back up to the 2500m today coming off a respectable Ballarat Cup run. Less speed here today and clearly the horse will be topped off for the run. Back to a dryer track obviously a positive also.
3. Oncidium Ruler: Ran home well 2nd in the Ballarat Cup beating Grey Lion and De Little Engine. Best distances in the past have been around this. Respect.
4. Dandy Gent: Three runs this prep and while he hasn’t been terrible, he hasn’t got within 5L of a win. Take on.
5. Instrumentalist: Well back in class the past two wins at Mortlake and Morphetville. Always had ability and glad to see the stable has found it… but beaten in the Mt Gambia Cup by survived says alot.
6. Like a Carousel: Ran a nice race first up at Sandown over the unsuitable 1800m and jumps straight to 2500m here back on dryer and Meech takes the ride.
7. Ormito: Throw at the stumps, again. Just not sure this horse is any good on recent form.
8. Darabad: Flew around last start in the Sandown Cup and was a very respectable 4th. Expect similar tactics today potentially.. but Williams onboard puts a query on that.
9. Goodwood Zodiac: On speed runner who has had 4 runs this prep without a win in easier company. Has to make another step up but last start run was good enough to feature.
10. Lucques: Not going well enough on last start.
11. Transfer Allowance: Three runs this prep and fairly beaten in easier grades. Not up to this.
12. Anemoi: BM-64 unplaced last start over 2400m. No.
13. Khartoum: Hard to have on previous two runs.
Comments: Grey Lion and Oncidium Ruler are clearly the ones to beat while De Little Engine and Like a Carousel are the big improvers up in distance here. Expect a more suitable pace for Grey Lion on speed today unless Williams tries something on Darabad.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
Strategy: Grey Lion to win.
Pakenham Race 8 – 1400m – Racing.Com VOBIS Gold Bullion
1. Burning Front: Five runs this prep and yet to get a win. Back in class here and has to be respected leading them around.
2. Royal Request: Two trials on lead in and won last one pushed out 11L. Darwin Cup winner and looks a respectable type. 1400m too short i’d say.
3. Grande Rosso: Been only average the past three runs but has had a month between runs to set him up for this race obviously. Respect but has to turn around a 1.25L defeat to Burning Front two back.
4. Dan Zephyr: Couldn’t win at Ararat last start. While it was a decent race this is much harder.
5. Hokkaido: Poor last start on a heavy track at Sandown. Previous Moe run was ok but this is much harder.
6. Broadway And First: Three runs this prep and best was two back when still well beaten in easier. Take on here.
7. Willi Willi: 150 days off after winning the Silverbowl Final in resounding fashion at Flemington. Was the win of a top class horse who should return here well and measure up. Only query is just how ready the horse is. Certainly a yard horse.
8. Wall Street Wolf: Fairly beaten last start by Sword of Justice which is enough for me to take the horse on here.
9. Rewarding Effort: Best in the past has been good enough to measure up and run a decent race here. Never measured up on wet tracks though.
10. Artie’s Shore: China Bowl 9th first up. Goes ok 2nd up but clearly has to improve and best runs in past have been on dryer.
11. Amadeus: Freshened up after a month off… BM-70 2nd last start at Kyneton. Big jump in form needed here to win.
12. Dusty Jack: Doesn’t like the wet and is doubtful to get the track here. Going well enough fitness wise but really needs a dry track again.
13. Benall: Cranbourne BM-58 6th last start. Needs further.
14. Atlantic Express: First up today. Doesn’t have the best first up record but clearly should still measure up to this level at very best.
15. Calendar Lad: Failed to show much first up. BM-64 winner last prep. Nope.
16. Potentate: Gelded. Three trials on lead in and this is the horses 2nd run ever. Clearly here for a reason and can’t ignore Waterhouse stable.
Comments: Speed will be on out front and this should set it up perfectly for Willi Willi as long as the horse has trained on during the break.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 14, 16
Strategy: Willi Willi E/W
Pakenham Race 9 – 1600m – Sportsbet Power Play BM70 Handicap
1. Imperator Augustus: Weir runner deep into a prep. Measured up in harder grade than this three back behind Steel Frost at Caulfield before 2nd in the Ballan Cup as favourite and 5th last start as favourite in Adelaide. Goes well on wet tracks on past form and looks well suited in this grade.
2. Aurum Spirit: Non-winner. 23 runs 1 win on soft. Hard to suggest.
4. Hunamosa: Kyneton BM-70 winner last start. Failed on soft run prior but has a heavy win on record.
5. Mr Churchill: Given no chance with the ride last start at MV. 5 runs on soft for 1 place. Hard to suggest on wet form but clearly one of the best in this race.
6. Time for Dancing: Traralgon BM-64 winner three back and 2L off Stormy SHore last start at Pakenham. Needs to improve. 4 starts 0 places on soft but has won on heavy.
7. Hell On Earth: Big improver last start at Sandown with a good win. Goes well on heavy.
8. Siga La Vaca: Ballarat winner two back beating a nice type in Casta and Burrums Buzz. Brave 3rd last start at Ballarat and has to be respected dispite record on wet.
9. Column: Big price winner at Pakenham last start on the Soft 7. Won very very easy and looks well suited backing up here.
10. Wimborne: Nice in the yard last start and went ok without impressing. Huge step up.
11. Star Major: 2YO maiden winner. FIrst up BM-64 as fav beaten fairly at Geelong. Needs to improve.
12. Florida Keys: Fairly beaten last start by an average type in I’m A Princess. Wet track form questionable and so if form in general.
13. Rubme: Horrible first up in easier. Last prep BM-58 winner. Not here.
14. Toan Thang: Cranbourne 5th first up and wasn’t fancied. BM-58 winner last prep.
15. Bettyrae Ruby: Couldn’t win a CL1 over 2000m three back nor BM-64 two back. Well beaten in G3 last start. Back to 1600m here. No thanks.
16. Parallel World: Two seconds in a row this prep. Big step up again. Never seen wet.
Comments: This is really a race lacking in quality and depth. Imperator Augustus is the clear standout on form and i’m keen to play from on speed and most importantly off the rail.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Imperator Augustus – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.50
