Welcome to The Profits preview for Oaks Day at Flemington on 9 November 2017. Coming off some fat results on Melbourne Cup Day, we are looking forward to a tough Oaks day card where limited bets are available so we need to really pick and choose and bet from the yard. The rail moves out 3M to get rid of any inside rail bias and we can expect the straight races to preference the outside rail for the day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Sambro – 3 units to win @ $4.00. 3.5 units to place @ $1.83.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Aloisia – 5 units @ $1.70+
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 9 – Debonairly – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.15
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 4, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1700m – Drinkwise Plate
1. That Rings a Bell: Two wins in a row at Bendigo. Beat a nice type by 3L first up and then last start ran them all down in a good effort and time.
2. Another Bullseye: Hasn’t won in her last 5 runs but ran very well two back behind Falika when claimed late on in the piece. Goes well at these distances from on speed.
3. Groovin’: Nice win three back and last two starts haven’t been a disgrace but clearly are a step below this. Has to step up here.
4. My Nikita: Three runs this prep and yet to get a place. That being said, the last two starts have been much better than they looked. Can improve here.
5. Love In The City: Two wins in a row going through the grades and steps up significantly here again including in distance.
6. Bint El Bedu: First up winner at Pakenham. Previous prep was running in harder company 6th and 4th beaten 3+L in listed grade races. Have to believe this horse has the ability to run well today.
7. Florida Keys: Three runs this prep have all been solid beaten no more than 2.3L but hasn’t run a place yet. Big jump in distance and class today and on past performances I have to take her on.
8. I’m a Princess: McEvoy runner fourth up today coming off a similar grade 2nd at Morphetville. Maps very well here and comes off a good sectional race as a lead in.
9. Lilymorn: Winner last start in lower grade by 01L from out the front in slowish time. Step up here and we have to remember she won her maiden over 2200m so distance is no issues. Can run well.
10. So Splendid: Warwick Farm winner first up and then ran a very nice 3rd from too far back last start. Poor barrier today a key negative as will have to get back and be very good to run them down here.
11. History Repeats: Maiden winner over 1800m 4 back and has been competing in solid races since including a 3rd to Falika two back. Looks well placed and will go forward from barrier 13.
12. Tiffany’s Lass: Four Four runs this prep and only 1 run went close but still well beaten. Hard to suggest.
13. Winkelmann: Two runs this prep in lesser grade. First up horrible but last start ran well and just missed. Can run a race.
14. Linguist: 4L winner last start at Ballarat in similar grade of race. Showed closing speed ability enough to be considered a winning chance.
15. Beerzatbernz: 3.4L off Our Crown Mistress last start at Caulfield. Has to obviously improve on that performance but does look better suited breeding wise up in distance.
16. Sworn Evidence: 2.1L off Our Crown Mistress last start and could have finished closer. Well bred type well suited up in distance and Craig Williams retains the ride. Mapping only issue.
17. Catalyst Fire: Tassy raider who has some very strong form lines over distances in the past. Last three runs good enough.
18. Royal Stamp: CL1 winner last start at Kembla. Well beaten in similar company to this on previous occasions.
19. Polisher: Three runs this prep and yet to win in easier. Did go close last start behind Bint El Bedu.
20. Dancing Here: Struggle to get a run. Not the worst here can run a race.
Comments: I’m a Princess, History Repeats, Linguist and Sworn Evidence are the standouts in a very open race. Couldn’t think of betting up here.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Back Linguist and I’m a Princess.
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – Twitter Trophy
2. Von Tunzelman: Open class winner in New Zealand last start on a soft track. Goes fine on Good tracks and has won in listed grade previous and 6th in WFA-G1. Handles distance and looks well suited here.
3. Mr Garcia: UK Import with Andreas Wohler stable. Struggled to win CL2 races last prep and previous preps was around the mark needed to measure up here. Respect the stable and jockey booking.
4. Souchez: Slow out last start but fairly beaten by Invincibella who has failed to win since. Previous runs all not bad but still beaten fairly. Wants the speed on.
5. Hogmanay: Bm-85 thirds last start at Randwick. Previews four runs no wins in easier grades. Has to improve.
6. Captain Duffy: Two wins in a row in easier grade on lead in but has to be respected on the way back up again.
7. Carraig Aonair: Likely on speed with Captain Duffy but won’t be wanting to push the speed too hard. Just got the win last start in easier company at Moonee Valley. Runs well at track and going well.
8. Portion Control: Best in the past more than good enough for this. Good win four back at Caulfield over 1700m and just missed the next start in similar grade here. Next two starts well below the mark required. A few weeks to train back on, you have to trust the stable has him right.
9. Ebediyin: Caught in two sit and sprint battles the past two starts and just not good enough from far back to get past runners. Up to 1800m ideal here but will want more speed on.
10. War Legend: Two runs this prep and fairly beaten on both occasions. Best in the past clearly go well here but not convinced he is going well enough.
11. Noumea: Terrible first up but was never going to go well over the distance. Step up to the right distance today but for very best will need further. McEvoy jumps off.
12. Shards: Good run two back 2nd to Moss N Dale but then last start just not suited by slow tempo. Need sharper tempo today.
13. Kastor: 1900m winner last start. Times not great.
Comments: Captain Duffy has the ability from the past to push the speed here but last start won by running them slowly out front so I can’t see it today. There is no natural speed in this meaning it may not be the best horse winning the race. Horses like Portion Control and Souchez and even Ebediyin would need to position better than ever before to win here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Small bets Souchez and Portion Control
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Off the Track Subzero Handicap
1. Onerous: Ran nicely enough first up over 1200m at MV. Up to 1400m here and on previous preps runs you have to believe he will go real close today.
2. Deja Blue: Scratched at the barriers on Tuesday. Goes nicely enough at track and distance but hard to suggest coming off a scratching. That being said, won last start in harder company so have to respect.
3. Time to Torque: BM-80 winner up in Doomben last start. Has shown ability and Williams takes the ride.
4. Powerline: Consistent type that just couldn’t get wins last prep outside of first up on a soft track. Doesn’t run bad races but clearly has to improve to win it.
5. Urban Ruler: Big first up win at Geelong and from last prep form has to be considered a big improver second up and back to Flemington. Looks well suited.
6. Silvera: Ridden too close last start at Caulfield over too far. Back to 1400m today and times are very sound. Respect.
7. Pay Up Bro: Not suited by slow tempo last start. Previous run average but ran nicely three back over 1400m. Needs speed on.
8. Tribal Wisdom: Well beaten favourite last start over racing and 3-wide the trip. Previous run 0.5L 3rd to Steel Frost. Form is sound.
9. Harbour Grey: Old mate loves a grey race. Not the worst run first up at Geelong and won previous prep in Adelaide.
10. Chalk: Lightly raced. Good win two back at Randwick and just beaten last start on softer. Go well.
11. Bord de Gain: Nice run first up but fairly beaten here. Previous preps measured up in 3YO grade.
12. Valac: Irish import. Looked a very classy type when I saw him win at Pakenham and has been clearly targeted at this race. Respect.
13. Antagonist: Fairly beaten last 4 starts. Take on.
14. Defiant Witness: Looked an ok type when started but nothing last two runs.
Comments: Wide open race but Urban Ruler is clearly the top class runner here. Silvera looks a horse to beat here while Valac is a huge improver.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Urban Ruler E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final
1. I Am the Dark: Strong winner last start at Cranbourne coming off a Murtoa win. Up in grade again obviously but can run well.
2. Night’s Watch: Good win from the back at Bendigo last start. Up in class and distance but well suited. Barrier only issue.
3. Emoji: Continues to run well without winning. Last start beaten favourite again 4-wide and still stuck on for 3rd. Good barrier today.
4. Straight Jacket: Ran very well first up 2nd at big odds at Geelong but others had harder runs. Best seen over further than this in the past an issue.
5. Zagaya: Sale winner last start 1400m on soft. Goes well at track and has run well here in the past over 1600m off strong tempos. Has to be respected.
6. Pot Black: Donald winner two back. Hamilton 2nd last start. Hard to see the next progression needed.
7. Astro Castro: Surprise winner last start up in grade onto a soft track but that’s obviously what the horse wants now. Back to dryer not convinced but does have a win at track.
9. Rock of Mahal: Led them around at a stupid tempo last start. Back in grade here so may try do it again here? Did run a good race that day considering.
10. Barry the Baptist: Hamilton winner last start. Couldn’t win a CL1 the previous two runs a concern. Others preferred.
11. Frankly Harvey: Seymour winner at massive odds last start. Beaten 4L Rock of Mahal previous start.
12. Savaju: Missed the start at Bendigo significantly and rocketed home when it was all over. Can run much better here if jumps well.
13. Tranquil Miss: 2nd to Zagaya last start at Sale and previous start 3rd in harder company behind Kirani. Blocked for runs last start should have won?
14. Hero Master: Had his chances last start at Seymour but fairly beaten. Not bad behind I AM Dark start before.
15. Captain Rhett: Always had ability but may be wanting even further off maiden win over 2200m. Okay enough last two starts but others preferred.
16. Pria Eclipse: Beaten fav last start behind Linguist. Has to improve on last two runs.
17. Another Coldie: Two solid lead in runs behind good horses has him well in here. Has to improve but well suited.
18. Roseberry Street: Sale 3rd last start when blocked for runs. Previous run at Pakenham was decent.
19. Boss Coni: Non-winner? Hamilton 3rd last start and 6th previous run but under 1L losses.
20. Aurum Spirit: Always been a decent type but doesn’t get wins. Has won at track 1 from 21.
Comments: With the speed on the cream should rise to the top. Emoji will finally get the run of the race here and will be hard to beat. Savaju could run well if jumps well today and Night’s Watch will be coming home hard late. Straight Jacket could also improve back to near best and be a player along with Hero Master.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Emoji E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – TCL TV Stakes
1. Ulmann: Strong winner last start at Caulfield when not even fancied by the yard. Has more to come from the yard and looks well placed here with the rail out 3m. Showed an amazing turn of foot that is hard to ignore here staying at 1400m.
2. Supply and Demand: Sydney runner who has won 5 of last 10 starts and was only beaten 0.5L last start giving 9kg to the winner on a soft 6 track. Stays at the 1400m and better weighted here today obviously. Won 4 of last 6 for a reason with two seconds in between.
4. Grande Rosso: Was looking for a strong tempo last start and just didn’t find it. Came home well enough for 4th but was well beaten on the day. 1.5kg better off today against the winner of the previous race. Back to Flemington where he runs well enough.
5. Hellova Street: Strong run last start 2nd in a 1200m Handicap at Moonee Valley. Last win was at course and distance and loves this race. Will be pushing the speed out front and looks good enough to win this. A repeat of that win at course and distance last time out would go close here.
7. Well Sprung: Ran well 7th last start at Moonee Valley behind some decent types when speed wasn’t on. Previous runs okay without going close. Step up in distance a concern but may suit.
8. Mubakkir: Disappointing run last start in the Weekend Hussler when fairly beaten by a few others. Best in the past would go well here but has to improve on current form.
9. Echo Effect: Ran nicely for 3rd behind Ulmann last start and gets a 3.5kg swing at the weights. Will be suited by the long straight today but has to take the next step.
10. Fox Hall: Given a terrible ride last start at Moonee Valley and got beat by going too slow. Not a great lead in run either for this. Will need to go to career peaks. Take on.
Comments: This is a very tricky race. Ulmann has to be respected and I expect the horse to run well even with the turn around in the weights. Supply and Demand has to measure up to another level of class here. Hellova Street may need another run for mine to find it’s very best that would beat these. Grande Rosso will appreciate the extra tempo today and is a player while Echo Effect is a big danger also. At the prices i’d be siding with Grande Rosso and Ulmann.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Grande Rosso and Ulmann.
Flemington Race 6 – 1000m – Absolu Stakes
1. The Quarterback: 15 runs at track for 5 wins. Failed first up with EIPH. Hasn’t run well for nearly a year.
2. Ball of Muscle: Has been well backed today coming off a 3rd to In Her Time. Just missed going around in the Everest. Has a 2nd to Redzel this prep on the record also. Two runs down the straight and has placed in the past.
3. Badajoz: Strong win first up at Caulfield and then last start missed the start and got too far back and just missed. Looks well suited down the straight over 1000m.
4. Shaf: Great run first up and should improve with the run. Has won down the straight in the past and goes well at the distance.
5. Crystal Dreamer: Fourth up today coming off a disappointing 6th at Caulfield last start. Likes the straight but not going well enough for mine.
6. Thelburg: Flying home last start at Moonee Valley and just couldn’t get a run. Never measured up down the straight a concern but this horse is clearly ready to win here.
7. Mile High: Got the win last start at Moonee Valley and takes a big step up in grade. Have to improve.
8. I’m Telling Ya: Loves the Flemington straight and will be hard to hold out. Go well.
9. Palazzo Pubblico: Three trials leading into this today. Has run down straight in past but failed to get close both occasions. Best can run well here.
10. Highly Geared: Didn’t show enough last start at Caulfield for mine from on speed when fairly beaten at the weights. Others preferred.
11. Dance with Fontein: Loomed into it but run ended first up. May need the run.
12. Love Days: Held up for runs last start at Geelong and previous run also. Back to 1000m today and up in class. Have to respect.
Comments: This looks a very tricky race on paper. Thelburg can produce a huge improved performance here today but i’m not sure it’s good enough to win this. Ball of Muscle looks very short but will be hard to hold out. On the previous two runs before failing to handle Moonee Valley, Badajoz is good enough to win this and will run well here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Badajoz E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1800m – Seppelt Wines Stakes
1. Savaheat: Well beaten last start in the Geelong Classic. Listed grade winner two back at Morphetville beating a nice type in Glam Guru.
2. Sambro: Ran a blinder last star tin the Carbine and got run down late by a very good type in Levendi. Short backup but clearly going well right now and 1800m no issues at all obviously. Can go one better here.
3. All Too Huiying: Two wins in a row going through the grades. BM66 up to this is a big step up.
4. Black Sail: Couldn’t get the job done the past three starts and steps up in grade again here. Not one of mine.
5. Sky Boy: BM-70 strong winner from on speed last start at Canterbury. Previous run just behind Sambro but worse at weights here.
6. Irish Vega: Ran home well from the back last start on Saturday. From the wide barrier will go back to last again and will need another strong run to run past Sambro.
7. Captain Jimmy: Two lead in runs both wins. HUGE jump in class here up to 1800m and needs to improve significantly.
8. Il Divo: Didn’t finish off well in the Geelong Classic so stepping back to the 1800m today. Didn’t show enough for me on the previous run either.
9. Free Fly Too: BM-58 winner last start at Kilmore jumping up to a Oaks day stakes race over 1800m. Really?
10. Grand Casino: Maiden winner first up and then failed to go close on last two occasions. Can’t see it.
11. Woulda Thought So: Maiden winner two back at Ballarat in average times and then Lame last start when backed behind Snitzepeg. Hard to have off lameness issues.
12. Plato: Bendigo maiden winner in decent enough times and can improve onwards here i’d imagine. Consider.
13. Prince of Arran: Maiden winner at Benalla and wasn’t a bad win on the day considering the distance and track conditions. Big jump here though.
14. Pageantry: Blocked for runs and just never given a chance in the Classic last start at Moonee Valley. Good run two back wide no cover in the Manifold. Looks a good chance if finds a spot.
15. Sweet Victory: Maiden winner last start taking three runs to get the win. Won with ease and class but this is a step up again.
Comments: Very keen here on Sambro on the short backup. Maps for an ideal run just off the speed and with enough speed on early, i’d be expecting Sambro to be very hard to get past off such a great lead in run.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 4, 14
Strategy: Sambro – 3 units to win @ $4.00. 3.5 units to place @ $1.83.
Flemington Race 8 – 2500m – Kennedy Oaks
1. Aloisia: Smashed them in the G2 Vase as the lead in and there is no questions that the horse will get the 2500m. Maps to sit just off the speed and no excuses not on the rails trapped away. Looks a top class horse.
2. Luvaluva: Ridden for luck last start in the Wakeful and produced an amazing win from what looked a hopeless position at the turn. Maps to sit closer to midfield today even from the wide barrier and has to be considered a main rival to the fav.
3. Bring Me Roses: Disappointing 12th as $4.80 favourite in the Wakeful off smashing them in the Edward Manifold. Query over the distance but not on breeding. Blinkers off.
4. Pinot: Lead them around start to finish in the Ethereal and really brained them in a performance worth noting. I liked what she did early and did enough late also to suggest she can finish off over the 2500m and be hard to run down. Big chance.
5. Rimraam: Got galloped on last start and probably cost her the race. Another step up and extra staying effort required here.
6. Hiyaam: Three solid runs in a row but beaten by three or more different horses on the way to this that she meets today. Has to improve again.
7. Lucky Louie: Two solid lead in runs but well beaten on both occasions. Needs to step up again.
8. Reliable Dame: Maiden winner two back at Ballarat. Geelong 4th when sat last and flashed home and looked to be wanting the extra distance. Craig Williams takes the ride here.
9. Sweet Mischief: Disappointing last start behind Cliff’s Edge coming off a nice run 3rd to Pinot the previous start. Would need to be wanting this distance to be considered a chance.
10. Four Koalas: Beaten 14L last start. Previous run couldn’t win a maiden. Not terrible previous run but others clearly preferred.
11. Circuleight: Couldn’t win a maiden at Seymour last start. Previous run beaten 6th in a maiden. Not for me.
12. Miss Admiration: BM-58 4th two back over 2000m. Last start horrible in the Wakeful. Not convinced here.
Comments: Aloisia is the horse to beat. Pinot looks the main and clear danger on recent form and will be very hard to get past if Aloisia doesn’t get a great spot in running. With $1.76 on offer with Betfair and $1.70 elsewhere, I’m more than happy to be betting up on Aloisia with Pinot the only danger for mine in the race.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4
Strategy: Aloisia – 5 units @ $1.70+
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Kennedy Plate
1. Debonairly: Two trial wins leading into this including one over Global Glamour which has to be respected. Comes off a Listed grade win to end last prep over 1100m. Looks a top class filly.
2. Blondie: Start to finish win on the biased MV track last start but was still a very solid win. Previous run at Flemington over 1600m was horrible.. that 1600 back to 1200m worked.
3. Split Lip: Four runs this prep and yet to win. Good run down the straight three back but has failed since in decent races. Don’t dismiss.
4. Jorda: Given no hope last start and really ran well all things considered. Previous run good behind Invincible Star also. Back to Flemington where needs to be at her very top but could be today.
5. Demerara: Beaten favouirite first up at Moonee Valley with no real excuses on the day. Yes, not the best part of track but should have been good enough. Back to 1100m here and has to be respected still.
6. I Am Excited: Coming out of being fairly beaten over 1400m and 1600m, she went close to Formality three back over 1200m and recorded strong enough early, middle and late sectionals to be winning here. Good trial lead in also.
7. Smart Coupe: Looked a nice type at Moonee Valley last start when 3rd behind Sam’s Image and Nature Strip. A step up in grade here down the straight and has to be considered.
8. Egyptian Bullet: Strong win first up in much easier grade than this. Has to improve to be figuring to place here.
9. Shudabeen: Maiden winner two back and went to Randwick and ran well from on speed for a respectable 5th beaten 1L by Beau Geste and 3L Viridine. Has to improve but is well in this.
11. Divine Messenger: Knuckled at start and never in it last start. Previous run won well down the Flemington straight. Can go well if measures up to this grade.
12. Camila Lucinda: Maiden winner first up at Yarra Valley. Obviously big improvement needed.
13. Wrapsody: Maiden winner at Echuca in only fair time. Obviously has to be going well to win this.
14. Jungle Queen: Maiden winner but didn’t measure up to BM-64 grade last start. No thanks.
15. Fleeting Feeling: Cranbourne maiden winner in after to poor time on a soft track. Not here.
16. She’s Popular: Kilmore maiden winner. Big jump in grade and times average.
17. Elusive Melody: Hasn’t won a race yet and big jump in grade.
Comments: Tough way to end the day and have to go wide in Quaddie. Think the Sydney form looks the best here and I have to side with Debonairly.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Debonairly – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.15
