Welcome to The Profits preview for Oaks Cup Day from Flemington on 3 November 2016. We come into Oaks day off some very strong Melbourne Cup day results with our best bet and next best winning to record us a 20 unit win for the day. This certainly looks a very tricky Oaks day card and looking around, my fellow tipping friends are having similar problems with the card. I’ve found three tips that standout on the day for me and I feel we are onto the money with these bets while we avoid the more difficult races of the day. I can’t wait until Saturday either, with some good bets already available in the markets put up and I hope the prices remain the same! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Hellbent – 4 units @ $2.20. Flamberge – 0.5 units @ $21
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Takedown – 2.5 units @ $5.50. Arod – 0.75 units @ $14
Other Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Exocet – 1.5 units @ $2.50
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 11, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8
Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1700m – Red Rock Deli Plate
1. Hell or Highwater: Has become a very costly horse to follow below two very solid wins over 1400m and 1600m. Stays in a similar grade today up in weight but still finds herself well in. Should be suited by the track and maps on speed.
2. Tavi Bay: 3YO winner last prep over 2000m at Caulfield beating some okay types that day. Never won first up in the past but has to be respected on her career best runs as being good enough to win this.
3. Daisy’s Joy: 4L winner last start over in Adelaide well down in class over 1600m. Best runs in the past at Rosehill suggest she is up to this class if finds the right race.
4. Sea the Sparkle: Two runs for two wins coming into this both on wetter tracks. Weir places his horses very well and this doesn’t look a step up beyond her here.
5. Mount Omei: Very nice type for the Waller stable that has been a bit of a frustration for punters in the past. 2 wins from 9 starts, I thought her first up run was very good in a similar grade of race. Barrier only issue.
7. Ballybrit: Three runs this prep and failed to get closer than 1.5L 2nd last start. Has to improve up in distance again to be a place chance.
8. Concubine: BM-58 win last start, beaten 1L by a decent type the run before in Model Dragon. Has to improve but does have the ability to measure up.
9. Honey Cara: Strong win last start at Donald but what exactly did she beat? Previous runs have been discouraging. Obviously has some ability.
10. Playful Rosie: Beaten 5L and 8.2L heading into this in easier company. Did win three back on Soft and placed on Heavy before that. Hard to suggest the improvement needed but Weir is a master.
11. Artesian: Ran well enough last start at Caulfield off a very slow tempo that didn’t suit on the day. Will be better suited here with a longer straight, but even so, she has to improve onwards to win.
12. With a Bit of Dash: Sit midfield today. Won well in Adelaide in similar grade last start and was a good run behind Exocet the previous run when lost a plate. Well suited back on a Good track today and will run well.
13. Montoya’s Secret: Couldn’t win a maiden the past two runs. Placed in 2Y-SWP grade at Flemington previous prep. Hard to see the improvement on two runs to date from barrier.
15. Spanner Head: Maiden winner in not great times last start at Stawell. Struggle to suggest a win based on two runs to date.
16. Star Patriot: Failed to win a maiden so far. Wasn’t the worst run two back behind Jennifer Lynn 7th beaten 3.1L at Caulfield and she has come out and won since.
17. Whirlpool: Tow runs to date and failed to get close to a win. Was a nice type previous prep placing in 3YO-LR grade. Hard to have on current form.
18. Champagne Ready: Close 3rd at Warwick Farm behind Katswiri and Mount Omni. Well beaten fav the previous start at Caulfield. Has ability and will be backed again.
19. Royal Applause: Nice enough type. Won in BM-64 grade at the bool three back. Beaten last start in same grade at Geelong but still ran well. Has to be considered.
20. Street Spun: Well beaten last start at Cranbourne. Two back run was a better run to judge off true ability. Gets better as the distances increase.
Comments: Wide open race to start the day with several chances. Doesn’t look a load of speed in the first race of the day. Hell or Highwater will get every chance from on speed for a horse with a strong sprint.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Hell or Highwater E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – Twitter Trophy
1. Scherzoso: Open class winner in easier grade than than this today, but still measures up at this BM-90 level. One run this prep but fairly beaten over 1500m. Up in distance will suit.
2. Pilote D’essai: Beaten favourite the past three starts and beaten 2nd favourite first up. A firm surface, 1800m and a good barrier today has him well in here at the weights. This may just be his day.
3. Cool Chap: A very nice type of horse that last prep measured up to the top level as a 3YO. Last start on a heavy track ran very well beaten 0.1L in Listed Grade. Drops back in class here and looks well suited at the 1800m at this track.
4. Encosta Line: Waller runner from a horrible barrier today. Last two runs have been reasonable without impressing. Has to improve.
5. Goathland: Another Williams yard import that is looking for strong staying trips. Best win last prep was over 2600m+ but has placed over 1900 in maiden grade. Hasn’t won for nearly a year. Hard to place but is probably over the odds.
6. Boom Time: Ran quite well first up over the 1400m distance on an unsuitable heavy track. Back to dryer here.. only won once from 18 starts a big concern but that was a 3YO-LR over 2200m. Should measure up well in this grade at the distance 2nd up.
7. Curragh: Nice enough type that won two back at Moe beating a decent type in The Chairman before a defeat last start behind Black Sheep as favourite. Has to improve to measure up to this grade.
8. Jennio: Weir tunner that hasn’t won from three attempts this prep. Finally finds a good surface track today may be the key? BM-70 grade iwnner last prep over 1600m.
9. Lautaro: 2050m win two back but failed to win the next two runs. Hasn’t seen a dry track in a long time. Out of class.
10. Portion Control: Nice type that won two back at Caulfield over 2000m before a respectable 6th last start. Has the ability and good barrier.
11. No Pushover: Two runs this prep and beaten both times convincingly. Hard to suggest here.
12. The Chairman: Very strong win last start at Bendigo back to a dryer track and should have won by 3 lengths. Much harder here but clearly has ability and good barrier.
13. Hardern: Two runs this prep beaten 4.6L and 7L. Better than what he has shown this prep based on 3YO runs last prep including Group 2 placed behind Tally. Has to find form.
14. Maven Wiz: Bm-67 winner heading into this. This is a big step up in class today but have to believe he is going well enough to be a contender.
15. Volontiers: Hasn’t gone close to a place all prep. Not here.
16. Data Point: Continues to go close and just miss in similar races. Up in grade today and back in distance. He certainly gets in well at the weights and can run well, but can you trust him after being beaten $2.5 favourite the last three starts?
17. Get the Picture: Two runs this prep and hasn’t gone close. Has to improve significantly to be considered for a place.
18. Assertive Star: Strong win two back on heavy. Beaten in BM-64 grade last start a bit of a concern up to this grade.
Comments: Data Point maps well enough but will be getting a long way back in the run and most likely on the rail. I’m not sure I could jump into the price. The two at nice prices I favour at Pilote D’Essai and Cool Chap and i’d be backing both for a return here. Tough race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Cool Chap & Pilote D’essai
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Off The Track Subzero Handicap
1. Rock Forthe Ladies: Ex Moody runner. Last start won at Randwick in Open class beating some nice types. Looks well suited here even at the weights from the barrier.
2. Onerous: Previous prep proved to be a very nice type down the straight here. Two runs this prep have been fairly average runs well beaten on both occasions and step up to 1400m for the 2nd time ever. Interesting placement.
3. Gladstone: Finished last prep running over 2000+ distances. Only won once from 11 tries at this distance and that was a while ago. Hard to suggest here.
4. Murt The Flirt: Strong win last start at Caulfield in easier grade of race from on speed. 3rd behind Demonstrate the previous run has been proven to be a strong form line. That was the first win in nearly a year. Longer straight today and won’t get an easy time on speed i’d imagine.
5. Powerline: Alot of second places in the past and hasn’t won since January in CL4 grade. Last three runs well beaten when fancied in most of the races. Has to improve.
6. Pepperano: Will push forward from barrier 2 today to be on speed after winning in CL3 and CL6 grades heading into this today. Was placed as a 2YO in Group 2 grade and has to be respected on past two runs.
7. Grey Street: Well beaten last start when fancied at Moonee Valley coming off a small field win at Morphetville and a 3rd at Caulfield before that. Well up in class here and while she can run well, she has never placed from 3 attempts at this track and hasn’t won in this class from 4 attempts previously. Poor barrier.
8. Wilscot: BM-70 winner at Wangaratta two back before failing last start at Wodonga. Hard to see the horse placing.
9. Fabulonh: Easy 5 length win on the heavy track last start at the bool over 1400m. Failed to get wins over 1100m and 1200m at Pakenham and Geelong last two starts and back to Good track today you have to have a few questions to ask.
10. Harbour Grey: Ran nicely third behind Miles of Krishan in a form race at Geelong last start. Step up to 1400m ideal and has never missed a place at distance from 6 starts or track from 3 starts. Rates well at weights.
11. Bon’s Ghost: Geelong winner in BM-64 grade first up. Hard to see the massive improvement needed here to get a win.
12. What a Hoot: Couldn’t win in BM-58 grade last start. Two back run was better than the form suggests. Even so, has to improve lengths.
13. Uncle Keithy: Better placed down in class. Hard to suggest.
Comments: RockfortheLadies, Murt the Flirt, Pepperano, Fabulonh and Harbour Grey are the standouts on form. This is a really wide open race though with several different form lines and horses with clear chances. Rock Fortheladies is the horse coming into this with the best form lines and looks the play.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Rock Fortheladies E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 1600m – 3AW Talking Melbourne Mile
1. Refulgent: Very good win in a fast run race last start at Moonee Valley over 1600m. Goes well at this track and in this grade of race. Likes a firm track and looks well suited.
2. Mihany: Ran horrible last start at Moonee Valley when a market drifter and never looked suited. Previous runs were obviously good but it’s hard to have any confidence after the last run. Has to get back to his best.
3. Marwood: Continues to run well this prep but has never won at this track. Got close to Refulgent last start. Good barrier and maps nicely.
4. Grande Rosso: Won very well last start at Bendigo after a few sub-standard runs. Up in class and distance today but has to be considered on that last start run.
5. New York: Horrible at Sale and Moe but very good previous run at Bairnsdale. Has to improve.
6. Pay Up Bro: Beaten a nose last start in much easier grade. Put 3 lengths on Grande Rosso three runs back. Clearly a horse with talent and on his best day he is hard to beat.
7. Aurum Spirit: Ran nicely with top weight last start at Pakenham over 1400m and step up to 1600m looks ideal. Clearly a big jump in class though.
8. Violent Snow: Just the 3 wins on record to date. Won last start in significantly easier grade of racing by 0.1L at Moonee Valley. 3 runs at track for 0 places a big concern. Always had ability.
9. Emoji: BM-64 winner last start at Pakenham coming off a CL1 win. Obviously a big step up in class.
10. Paige’s Boy: BM-64 winner last start by 0.1L. Clearly outclassed here.
11. Polar Vortex: A nice type that has been a beaten favourite in BM-70 grade the past two starts. Not the worst run 4.1L 6th behind He’s Our Rokkii three back. Has to improve but does have some ability.
13. Way Too Easy: Couldn’t win a BM-58 last start. No.
Comments: I’m happy to stick with Refulgent here today. The horse is very consistent and we know what we will get, a tough effort that will have the horse hitting the line strongly. I think Pay Up Bro is under the odds while Grande Rosso, Marwood and Mihany are the clear threats.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Refulgent E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1800m – TCL QUHD TV Stakes
1. Nemrud: Ran poorly last start at Geelong over 2200m and steps back to 1600m today after three solid lead in runs. Has never won a race which is an issue but certainly was a nice 2nd to Moqueen at Randwick.
3. Peter John: Couldn’t place in a BM-59 then lost a CL1 before winning an easier one at Canberra the next start. Back to 1800m and he looks not well in here for mine.
4. Anaheim: Maiden winner at a very short quote last start at Benella. Hasn’t set the world of fire but that’s this race in a nutshell. Has ability.
5. Righteous Mate: Maiden winner 2nd run ever at Gosford last start in nice enough style. Up to 1800m here and while he has to improve, he does have ability.
6. Shine Tak Star: Couldn’t place in Maiden company so had to go to a CL1 last start at Kembla to get a win over 2400m. Big step back in distance doesn’t look suitable.
7. Zoffman: Maiden winner on heavy two back. Failed to fire at Geelong last start. Back in distance. Minor player.
8. Warrior of Justice: Maiden winner over 1100m but yet to get a win since. Nice enough run 1.5L 7th at Geelong last start in BM-70 grade but this is clearly harder.
9. So Poysed: Did a fair bit wrong last start in Maiden company at Bendigo when winning well over 1400m. Big step up in distance and class but has ability.
10. Rockstar Rebel: Could’t win last start in 3YB-64 grade. Maiden only winner. Has to improve lengths.
11. The Rich Fisher: Maiden winner on heavy. Well beaten over 1600m behind Hey Doc two back. Last start didn’t place over 1600m in BM-64 grade at Pakenham.
12. Flash Boy: Maiden winner over 1400m before being well beaten in 3YB-64 grade last start. Hard to see the improvement needed.
13. Exocet: 3YO-F winner three back at Caulfield. Beaten favourite at course over 1600m two back when had respiratory issues and lacerations. Last start at Moonee Valley just beaten on the tricky track running a very solid race. Clear favourite today.
14. River Goddess: Maiden winner last start at Pakenham. Has to improve onwards and upwards.
Comments: Only really two horses I could consider here in Nemrud and Exocet. The price on offer for Exocet back to this grade is certainly value at the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Exocet – 1.5 units @ $2.50
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – L’Oreal Paris Stakes
1. Takedown: Should have won in G3 company last start. Won in WFA-G2 and Group 2 the previous two starts this prep and is going from strength to strength. 1400m again today and will be pushing forward from the wide barrier to be on speed. A top chance.
2. Arod: Previously one of the highest rated horses in the world, Arod was the best 1600m horse back in 2014/15 but hasn’t won ar ace since late 2015 in WFA-G3 class. 0.5L off Solow over 1600 in WFA-G1 class in the UK… his last two runs 2.1L off Tepin and 2L off Lightning Spear are significant enough to run well here today on a firm surface. Back to the lowest grade he has competed in, in years.
3. Amovatio: Out the back first up over 1200m behind Takedown when fairly beaten 2.4L. Best runs in the past have been over 1600m so while this looks a nice race and ideal from the barrier, he needs to jump well and improve.
4. Ninth Legion: Ran nicely first up a bit surprisingly over 1100m and will appreciate the step up to 1400m here. Proved in Listed class and has to improve to Group 3 again.
5. Hooked: Group 2 winner two preps back. Last prep failed to show anything. D Oliver takes the ride interestingly and horse now with Wez Hunter. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
6. Kenjorwood: Old mate has never won over 1400m in the past. Always runs well and last prep took a few runs to get a good win. Been for a spell and first up today. Probably needs the run and further but he should still perform well.
8. Entirely Platinum: Not a bad run first up over 1400m in WFA-G2 but next two starts well beaten in similar races and distances. Bad barrier and will struggle to get a good spot today.
9. Federal: Well beaten last start in harder company off a slow tempo on a soft track that didn’t suit at Moonee Valley. Back in class here and over 1400m looks much better suited here. Will get a sit on the rails and run well.
10. Cosmic Cube: Four runs this prep and well beaten in each of those, even if the record says 3rd in a Group 2, he was well beaten. Hard to suggest even back in this grade based on previous runs.
11. Clearly Innocent: Two runs this prep and fairly beaten on both occasions behind Keen Array and Takedown. Previous prep won five in a row up to listed level and clearly has ability, but needs to improve significantly on the last two starts to measure up here.
12. Dan Zephyr: Looked a very good type last prep winning some nice open class races, but hasn’t come back the same this prep and while his runs have been okay, I can’t see the improvement especially from the barrier.
13. Rageese: Up in class today. Had every chance to get past Master Reset at Moonee Valley and couldn’t do it! Master Reset has won since. Mids a little worse than midfield today up in class.. has to improve.
14. Taddei Tondo: Good run three back at Moonee Valley but well beaten the next two starts. Up in grade again. Hard to see it.
15. Denpurr: Certainly not going to be backing up today you would think.
Comments: Takedown, Arod, Federal, Clearly Innocent and Rageese stand out as the top picks here, but I really have this down to the clear two in Takedown and Arod. I think there is value in both runners prices today and i’m confident enough to back both. Keen.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Takedown 2.5 units @ $5.50. Arod 0.75 units @ $14
Flemington Race 7 – 1000m – Mumm Stakes
1. Terravista: Hasn’t won a race since October of 2015 and his last two runs were fails over 1100m and 1200m. 1 win and 3 places from 4 runs at this track in the past in WFA-G1 and Group 1 grades and has won 3 from 5 at this distance in the past. Had a nice trial heading down here today and loves the straight. Obviously one to beat.
2. Flamberge: Ran horribly first up at Caulfield and his very best runs recently have all been around corners so that is a big issue. Goes well enough down the straight and if Weir has him back to the fitness he needs to be, then he is well over the odds today.
3. Redzel: Stole a Group 3 two back at Caulfield and was found out in the top level at WFA-G1 class. Back to Listed grade looks well in here, but you have to wonder if getting 1.5kg off a Terravista or Flamberge is reasonable for this horse, and i dont think it is first time down the straight.
4. Hellbent: Has won down the straight as a 3YO so no troubles there. Comes off an injury caused in the stalls at Caulfield as favourite in a Group race. Placed conservatively in this race today and obviously has the turn of foot to win here.
5. General Truce: Old mate loves to pull out a surprise once in a blow moon down the straight with a win after running some horrible races in the lead up… and that is what he did early this prep at double figure odds. Last start he ran quite well at Moonee Valley but this looks a step beyond his best.
6. Bullpit: Loves the straight races over 1000m and always seems to run very well… but at this top class level, he finds at least one too good and that will happen again today.
7. Grane: Fairly beaten last prep down the straight by Malaguerra and previous runs found a few too good. First up showed nothing so it’s very hard to even suggest a place.
8. Shaf: His win at course and distance four runs back was eye catching on a good surface. The time he ran was more than sound overall and he is a big player here if he finds his form again.
9. Tarco: Very disappointing on the shifty MV track last start. Ran well previous to that bad run and will appreciate the dryer track. Will run well but not sure he is up to the grade.
10. Runsati: Always shown potential and his two runs down the straight have both been well run seconds behind Shaf and Odyssey Moon. First up and a solid run won’t shock here today.
11. Rock ‘n’ Gold: BM-78 winner two back before being heavily beaten in R-84 grade last start. Never won down the straight and looks well out classed.
12. Golden Spin: The potential X factor in the race. Slow away and got out the back and raced horribly first up over 955m when 4th on the day. Back to a firm track you have to respect his chances if back to his best.
13. Tuscany Hero: BM-70 grade winner last start on Heavy. Hard to bet here even having won two of his last three. Well outclassed.
Comments: There aren’t a lot of winning chances on my numbers today and the market has it quite right. Hellbent and Flamberge are drawn in the right side of the track for me today while Terravista along with Shaf may have to pull out to the not so good ground to make their runs which will be interesting.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8
Strategy: Hellbent for 4 units @ $2.20. Flamberge for 0.5 units @ $21.
Flemington Race 8 – 2500m – Crown Oaks
1. Yankee Rose: Beaten 8.8L in the Cox Plate off a brutal tempo and that will have ticked her over the top here today you have to imagine. From that run, I have no issues with her staying the distance. The only issue I see is the horrible barrier and where she gets in the run.
2. Missrock: Wasn’t disgraced last start when ran quite well for third behind Tiamo Grace and Sebring Dream. Will appreciate the step up in distance on previous runs you should assume but not exactly there on breeding. Great barrier and will map well.
3. Sebring Dream: Ran a very nice race last start at Flemington when got to the front a bit too early and was run down late by Tiamo Grace who has not accepted. Clearly a player on everything we have seen to date.
4. Moqueen: Ran nicely last start at Caulfield after a very good win at Randwick. Has been set for this a long way out and seems to be reaching her very best runs at the right time. Should get a nice passage from the barrier.
5. Eleonora: Good win heading into this at Caulfield beating Tiamo Grace and Sebring Dream on a day that suited those on pace… even so it was a good win and the distance increase today should be no issue. Looks the leader on paper?
6. Smart As You Think: A very good open class win last start in F&M grade to beat a good field at Moonee Valley over the 2040m distance. Looks absolutely set for this today back to 3YO grade and a win here wouldn’t shock one bit. Looks the forgotten formline.
7. Harlow Gold: Has been set for this race by the stable. 3YO winner at Caulfield over 1600m but the last two starts have been less than ideal as lead ins. Suggestion that she didn’t handle the Moonee Valley track just like Prized Icon didn’t on the day and came out and won the derby since. Could position closer to the speed from the barrier today.
8. Bella Sorellastra: Disappointing run last start at Flemington when out the back and only managed to get within 6L of Tiamo Grace. Ran very well from out the back previous start at Caulfield. Finally gets a barrier and it wouldn’t shock if she went further forward in running today.
9. Peeking Duck: Easy win last start in BM-64 grade at Cranbourne over 2035m but it wasn’t exactly pretty. I like the horse but i’m not convinced the horse is an Oaks type.
10. Lamma Hilton: Went around 100-1 last start at Flemington over 2000m and no reason why that price should improve today off those runs.
11. Lasqueti Spirit: Couldn’t place in CL1 race last start at Kembla. Take on.
12. Nina Peak: Hasnt’t been able to win a race yet and well beaten last start 2.1L behind Peeking Duck. No thanks.
13. My Girl Chilly: 20000m maiden winner at Donald. Fairly beaten from the back last start at Flemington. hard to see the improvement.
14. Red Velvet Swing: Couldn’t win a maiden. Take on.
15. Penthouse Kitten: Beaten in BM-58 grade and then well beaten last start behind Tiamo Grace. No thanks.
Comments: Yankee Rose deserves to be a short priced favourite here. Eleonore, Smart As You Think and Harlow Gold are the three that appeal to knock off the favourite while Sebring Dream and Missrock are also in consideration. At the end of the day, the $1.73 on offer for Yankee Rose is backable if you are playing in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7
Strategy: Yankee Rose to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 110m – Crown Resorts Plate
1. Selenia: Scratched from Tuesday to run in this race today. Back to 1100m down the straight probably suits better than a 1200m race for mine. Very very good win three back at Moonee Valley and has won down the straight in the past. Clearly a chance.
2. Hear the Chant: Big win last start at Caulfield running down a quality field from off the speed. Looks a type that likes a wide open track and should be suited down the straight.
3. Twist Tops: Looked a very good 2YO placing in Group class and winning in 2YO-SW class. First up disappointingly beaten at Warwick Farm in BM-72 grade and while it’s a step back to 3F grade, it’s up to Group 3. Has to improve.
4. Spright: Strong win last start at Randwick off a strongly run time also when gapped the field. Maiden win previous to that was strong also. Obviously a late blooming filly that looks well in here today.
5. Kentucky Miss: Won 3 of her last 5 races including 2YO and 3F-LR grade here down the straight. Best runs have been on softer tracks but shouldn’t have a huge issue on the good track today either. Has clear ability but has to improve.
6. Conchita: Strong 3YO winner last start at Moonee Valley over Biased Witness who came out and ran 2nd on Tuesday. Loves the shorter distances and while she has never won over 1000m, the extra 100m shouldn’t be a huge factor. Has won at Randwick previously so suggest she can and should run well on a dry track today.
7. Super Too: Won two in a row before being beaten 0.7L behind Kentucky Miss at course and distance last start on a softer track. Has to improve but has ability.
8. Showpero: Looked a good horse as a 2Yo when winning some nice sprint races. Did a lot wrong first up when slowly away, blundered and blocked for runs… have to forgive and suggest the horse is first up today here. Has to improve.
9. Motown Lil: Did a lot wrong last start at Caulfield when slow out, over raced and blocked for runs at critical stages and still ran 4th behind Sylpheed. Failed to place first time down the straight.
11. Faith’s Encore: FMB-72 winner over a decent type in Dixie Chick at Warwick Farm before running 3rd behind Kentucky Miss last start blocked on turn and found issues in the straight. Has ability.
12. Moonlover: Not the worst horse running today but has to improve. Thought the run two back at Caulfield behind Hear The Chant was a good run, but clearly had to improve.
13. Rosa Carolina: Very nice run 4th behind Sweet Sherry last start at Moonee Valley when had every possible chance to win. Clearly a chance here but needs to find another gear back to a firmer track.
14. Call me Tess: Not the worst run 4th behind Flying Artie at Caulfield last start from on speed. Has to improve but has ability and can’t fault that form line.
15. The Veal Thing: Echuca maiden winner. 4th last start behind Archives in a 6 horse race. Hard to have.
16. Navagio: Maiden winner on heavy. 2Yo 2nd at big odds previous start on soft behind Yu Long Sheng Hui. Has some ability.
17. Pedrena: Maiden winner at Cranbourne in only average time. Has to improve significantly to place here.
18. Savaju: Maiden winner on Heavy at Bendigo first up this prep. Struggle to suggest taking this step up off that win.
19. Miss Wonderland: 6L win at Pakenham with a huge start to finish win. Looks a smart type and I wouldn’t be ignoring her ability.
Comments: Another race with several chances. Spright looks the real deal here and hard to beat. Selenia and hear the Chant both look over the odds while Showpero may return to it’s best here and run well.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 13
Strategy: Spright to win.
