Welcome to The Profits preview for Morphetville on 13 March 2017. There are several strong betting races on the cards today and we believe there is a strong angle to take on two. Will be on track in Adelaide all day covering the meeting. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Morphetville Race 8 – Burning Front – 5 units @ $1.85
Next Best Bet
Morphetville Race 1 – Bay Road – 1 unit Each-Way @ $9/$2.40
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Morphetville Race 1
Three standouts in the opening race. Bay Road was a strong winner from on speed at course and distance last start. Up in weight here but will be very hard to get past.
Ready Sunshine has been running well previously in harder company, but he hasn’t measured up to this grade in a long time to get a win and has to improve again – but is clearly good enough.
Star Stealer has been running well recently in similar grades of races. Won two back at Moonee Valley over the 1000m. Was a good run also the previous start.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bay Road – 1 unit Each-Way @ $9/$2.40
Morphetville Race 2
A wide open race. Beautiful Flyer was a huge winner last start over the 1250m after being slowly away. BF wil be hard to beat today but Brinkley Bliss will certainly be measuring up well and Model Dragon started favourite in a Mares grade race last prep at Flemington. Looks a nice and open race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Beautiful Flyer
Morphetville Race 3
Not a great betting race overall with the prices available. Quite a few of these look well below the grade with Spoils the favourite and obvious pick… but i think he will be a huge query over the 1200m based on her last few runs. Yes, she will be fit, but she doesn’t have a great finish to him. I also can’t have Undoubtable Miss at the price on her record. The form line race I want to follow here is Azzuro Bianco and Eclair Sunshine.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Azzuro Bianco and Eclair Sunshine
Morphetville Race 4
Posh Journey has won 4 in a row and continues to run well in this grade of race. This is a much harder race today but even at the weights she is a top chance. Yulong Yongxing was disappointing at Caulfield last start coming off some decent runs in Adelaide. Revolving Door is the class runner in the race proven in Group 3 company.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Revolving Door to win
Morphetville Race 5
Go The Journey was a strong winner two back from start to finish at track and distance but fairly beaten last start. Can run well here. Labuan Star continues to well well this prep and is never far off. Can run well here. Counter Pulse was a massive winner last start at course and distance on speed. Highly doubtful he leads here but will be one to beat. Caprese hasn’t won in a very long time and was poor first up, but can run well if back to his best.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Labuan Star to win.
Morphetville Race 6
Casino Wizard finished last prep winning at course and distance in listed grade. Never won first u a concern. Riziz hasn’t won since 2015 but is good enough to measure up here. Karlovasi was a winner last prep at course and distance in similar grade. Heza Ripper can measure up here as well and Lyuba is the obvious favourite off Group 3 runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lyuba to win.
Morphetville Race 7 – 3200m – Adelaide Cup
1. Chance to Dance: Hasn’t won a bad race all prep but hasn’t been at the top class. First time over 3200m query at distance but can run well.
2. Master of Arts: Strong win last start at course over 2600m and heading strongly towards the 3200m. Expect strongly the horse will stay and looks well in here.
3. Puccini: Ran a strong race out the front only beaten 0.3L bnehind Master of Arts last start. Last win was over 1600m in 2015 but should get the distance.
4. Mail It In: Very strong win beating Extra Zero two back before ran on okay for 4th behind Master of Arts last start.
5. Jim’s Journey: Big run from out the back over the 2600m behind Master of Arts. Looking for 3200m based on that run but needs to improve again.
6. De Little Engine: Loves a long distance but has never quite shown his best over 3200m in the past. Nice enough run 4th last start at Flemington off an average tempo. Should measure up but will be a long way back in run.
7. Lord van Percy: On speed last start but not suited by the tempo. Step up to 3200m looks more than ideal and Weir knows what he is doing here. Blowout chance.
8. Mujadale: No luck last start and i honestly thought his run was eye-catching not leading. Jump well today and lead and will go far into this race.
9. Tunes: BM-82 winner two back but poor last start. Has to improve to place.
10. Like a Carousel: Hasn’t been going well the past few preps. Take on here.
12. Annus Mirabillis: Been going well at the start of the prep in similar distance races and will stay. Really disappointing last start though and has to improve. Has the ability.
13. Chestnut Charlie: Fairly beaten two lead in runs over shorter distances. Big ask 1600m up to 3200m.
15. Darabad: Imported to stay and has top class staying ability from French racing. Query over the 3200m the only issue but shouldn’t be an issue. Respect.
16. Double Bluff: Nice win over 2500m three back in much easier. Failed both runs since. Has to improve but should stay.
17. Honey Steel’s Gold: Been going around over the hurdles last prep but got a win over 2200m last start over a good horse in Goodwill. Will stay.
19. Exalted Lightning: Failed badly last start. Previous starts fairly beaten by the likes of TUnes etc. No thanks.
20. Kawabata: Strong 3000m+ win last start at the bool and stays all day. Not sure if good enough to measure up for a win here, but will run well.
21. Anuradha: No thanks not here.
22. Mighty Maher: Not in this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Master of Arts and Darabad.
Mortphetville Race 8
Burning Front is the clear standout in this race and has been priced accordingly. On ratings, Sir Issac Newton looked the main danger but has since been scratched. There are certainly some progressive types like group 1 placed Great Esteem and It and a Bit, but I can’t see any of them holding out Burning Front at the top of his game. Great Esteem may be in for a fight for a long way though.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Burning Front – 5 units @ $1.85
Morphetville Race 9
Miss Sydney was very well backed last start at Moonee Valley and was a nice winner on the night. Spiritof Endeavour continues to run well this prep and can measure up. That’s A Slab won well at big odds last start and can continue to run well here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Miss Sydney to win
