Welcome to The Profits preview for Mornington on 25 March 2017. Coming into this meeting there is one horse we have had our eyes on from a long way out in The Gold Trail. This is a horse Godolphin has sent over to win a slot into the Caulfield Cup to get in low in the weights and that is what I can see happening today with him going around as our Best Bet. Looking forward to a fair day of racing on what will be a nicely dried out track after the rain early on in the week. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Mornington Race 7 – The Gold Trail – 5 units @ $2.60 to win
Next Best Bet
Mornington Race 5 – Strike Force – 3 units @ $3.3 to win. 0.9 unit – Fife @ $4.4 (Saver Bet)
Other Bet
Mornington Race 4 – Toga Picta – 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win
Mornington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 10, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mornington Race 1 – 1000m – Windows Warehouse Handicap
1. Aunty Mo: strong run 3rd last start at Moonee Valley over the 955m when outside leader and was ahead with 20m to go but had 2 fly past in the final 5-10m. Similar grade and no issues up to 1000m for mine. Maps to go forward again and sit outside the leader, or if El Sicario is scratched, could very well be the leader throughout. Will run well.
2. Pink Perfection: Talented mare who looked really good in previous preps, but she has failed to fire strongly this prep it has seemed. Not bad last start down the straight in the blanket finish race behind Missrock but still found 4 to beat her. Will measure up and run well again here. Was beaten 2L by Aunty Mo two back.
3. Nordic Empire: Went super close last start at huge odds when 0.1L 2nd at Bendigo behind Thelburg in BM-70 grade over 1100m. Back to 1000m today and will try and push forward again. At his best he is better than this field but hasn’t shown that in a long time.
4. Capannello: Good win two back at Flemington down the straight in 3Y HCP conditions. Last start in the Inglis Dash no cover was cooked 250m out but found the line solidly beaten 2L in the end. Back around the bend here should be suited and looks well in with 2kg claim back to BM-78 grade.
5. Schism: BM-70 grade winner first up after a long lay off. Was a strong win and the horse was well backed that day. Has to improve but obviously well in at weights.
6. El Sicario: Duel nominated at Moonee Valley and here. I’d be scratching to run here personally but unsure what they will do. Nice enough first up run and will be better suited over the 1000m. Should get an easy lead today.
7. Certain Ellie: Two solid wins coming into the prep but fairly beaten the last two starts in harder company. Another step up again.
8. Gibbon: Trialled strongly heading into this prep. Always shown ability in past starts but has to prove it in this grade of race.
Comments: Capannello will be hard to beat today and is the clear top pick. I assume El Sicario won’t run here but if he does he is the main threat from Aunty Mo. Gibbon is the blowout chance at odds off a nice trial.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Capannello to win.
Mornington Race 2 – 1200m – No Fuss Event Hire Handicap
1. Stylish Miss: Weir runner. First up today off a spell with top weight. Best runs in the past have been on wetter tracks but is still handy on a Good surface. Really feel best is also over slightly further. That being said, first up in this grade and has won in this grade previously. Maps well.
2. Sullivan Bay: Good win three back at Morphetville from on speed and a close 2nd next start at Sandown beating Top Me Up home who has won impressively since. Disappointing run last start on the Hillside track and was never going well that day. Expect a stronger run back to the 1200m today and looks very well suited with claims.
3. Typhoon Jolie: Last prep ran into several heavy tracks. Hasn’t won a race in a long time and now with Sadler stable. Best distances have always been over further but I think we have to respect her ability.
4. Florelle: Two preps back won a BM-70 at Moonee Valley in a nice win. Since then has recorded a few solid seconds in similar grade but yet to get a win. Trial coming in didn’t show us too much behind Miss Vista.
5. Miles of Krishan: Last prep started well with a good run and then two wins in similar grades to this and finished over 1600m. Goes well at distance with 2 wins from 3 starts and has won previously first up. Looks well suited in this grade of race. Barrier only issue.
6. Weather the Storm: Been up since October. Won first up in CL1 class and went way out of class but came back to these types of races since. Did score in a BM-90 over 955m two back but failed last start over 1200m in BM-78 grade. Does this horse now just want 1000m?
8. Fast Approaching: Very good horse last few preps but has fallen away. Best run this prep was two back but had every possible chance and was just bad last start. Back to 1200m and never won at distance.
9. Jester Angel: Won 2 from 5 this prep and been close on all other 3 occasions beaten by less than 0.2L all prep. Won nicely in BM-70 last start on a Soft 5 at Stony Creek but obviously has to be considered again on current form.
10. Viatrix: Hawkes winner on the quick backup after a nice front running win at Moonee Valley last start. Looks well in but won’t get an easy lead here today.
11. Divine Chills: Flemington winner as a 3YO beating some nice types down the straight. Two runs in this prep have been good in similar grade but she has to go to the next level again here to range up and win. Weighted well enough.
12. El Rada: Had her chances last start and hit the line solidly behind Viatrix. Struggle to suggest the win.
Comments: Another wide open race. Sullivan Bay will go well here at nice odds and so will Jester Angel. I couldn’t take Viatrix at the current odds knowing how much extra speed there is in this one and i’m not sure about Divine Chills at the price from out the back either. I’d watch for the money coming for Miles of Krishan and be happy to take the form lines of Sullivan Bay back to 1200m today coming into this at the odds.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Sullivan Bay E/W
Mornington Race 3 – 2000m – Progress Signs Handicap
1. Angelology: Several trials heading into this prep heading towards the hurdles but is certainly known to be a handy flat tracker over 2000m+. That led to a BM-82 win last start in Adelaide with a nice run. Step up in class here but can run well.
2. Ancient King: Clearly a hurdler now. Used to be able to match it with some of the best of them over this distance but he really hasn’t shown that on past preps or runs. That being said, Rawiller takes the ride today.. watch for money coming.
3. Lucques: Has been well beaten 7 of the last 8 runs. There was 1 win in the middle of that though over 2500m. Hard to suggest on last two runs.
4. Try Four: Two solid runs without going close to start the prep and had a nice Hurdle trial after that. Two weeks back charmed run but didn’t exactlt finish off over the 1800m. Up to 2000m here but has to obviously improve on that last stat run.
5. Golden Mane: Has always been a consistent horse without winning anything top class. Last prep 1L 2nd and 0.2L 2nd in Handicap company… but four runs this prep and hasn’t got within 4L yet.
8. Shakopee: UK import who had his last win on a Synthetic track. Has won at Doncaster but certainly had been running in lower grade races over there. A stayer and has to be respected but is he good enough? Has been gelded.
9. Snitzelwood: Two runs back after some good runs on the Synthetic over the 2200m distances last prep. First up wasn’t bad over the 1500m but last start in the Wangaratta Cup was pretty decent behind Extra Zero and Our Century. Nicely weighted here and has to be respected.
10. Last Wish: Blinkers on. Freshened up since failing last two starts. Hard to suggest here on current form.
Comments: As the market suggests this is a nicely wide open race. Try Four looks well unders to be and I can’t entertain the price. Shakopee the import is a big watch. Snitzelwood looks to get the perfect run out the front and will be hard to get past and looks nice overs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Snitzelwood E/W
Mornington Race 4 – 1500m – Martin Collins Fibretrack Sires
1. Eshtiraak: Very disappointing run last start in the VRC sires as the well backed favourite – but there was a bias on the day to leaders. 1400m up to 1500m today so no distance query. Maps just off the speed again today. Has to return to best to go well here.
2. Toga Picta: Box seat throughout but couldn’t get past the top three in running off the tempo and bias. A little disappointing for mine on the day as he was more than good enough based on the previous start. Ideal barrier today get another strong position in running and have every shot.
3. Fully Maxed: Maiden winner last start. Failed in top class races when thrown in, in the past. Huge improvement needed.
4. Sheer Madness: Nice maiden win last start at Pakenham coming off some fairly disappointing runs in the very top grade Blue Diamond and produces. Certainly has ability on what we saw first up.
5. Euro Gold: Down from up north. Failed to win a maiden to date even over these distances. Hard to suggest had every chance to date.
6. Paseeto: Fairly beaten favourite first up when well backed on the day coming off a strong trial. Last start had his chances in the 2YO MM Classic over 1200m also. Steps up to 1500m and may be just what the horse needs.
7. Aberro: Pakenham maiden run 2nd is the only run on record. Struggle to suggest off that.
8. Il Divo: Fairly beaten on both runs this prep. Wasn’t a bad run 3rd to Sheer Madness last start but obviously outclassed here.
9. Sustained Decision: Not very well wanted in the markets first up over 1100m at Flemington and was under pressure with 400m to go. Horrible run. Not for mine here.
10. Valiant Spirit: Maiden 3.6L 4th first up over 1200m. Huge improvement needed to run a place.
Comments: The market really tells us what we need to know about this race. The two clear favourites are Toga Picta and Eshtiraak. Sheer Madness is the other we do have to consider at odds. Strangely, the market has Eshtiraak above Toga Picta, but I loved the way Toga savaged the line when ridden IMO poorly as he needed to be asked the question at the top of the straight not cuddled like he was.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Toga Picta – 1.5 units @ $3.40 to win.
Mornington Race 5 – 1600m – Mitavite Challenge Final
1. Strike Force: Big win last start over 1600m when holding off War Legend and Portman from the front at Flemington. Tricky track today but has run well in the past at Moonee Valley. Looks the on speed horse with one other and well suited here.
2. Hokkaido: Non-winner with 7 runs this prep failing to get a win. Last two starts ran 2nd. Harder here. Ran on Wednesday so doubt he runs.
3. Hell on Earth: Hard horse to catch. Last three runs have been very very poor fairly beaten significantly. Hard to have.
4. Rising Hope: Won two of last four in easier grades of races. Ran in this grade three back at Moonee Valley beaten 4L but was wide no cover alot of the race. Last start was not great in G3 grade from on speed. Has to find her best again here to win. Obviously has the ability.
5. Magnus Slipper: Two runs this prep. First up very poor over 1200m but not really a surprise. Last start fair to the line beaten 1.1L 3rd over 1400m at Pakenham. Step up in class over 1600m but has to be respected in this grade.
6. Backstreet Lover: Had her chances last start at Sandown and had no answer when claimed early in the straight. Two back run was better. Needs to improve.
7. Fife: Maiden only winner. Gone around in city grade 5 runs since and failed to win. First up was well backed but folded quickly when asked for an effort. Trialled well since over 1200m.
8. Peninsula Boy: Bm-64 grade winner first up this prep. Next two starts failed to get closer in harder grade and then ran 3rd in BM-64 last start. Others preferred.
9. Nova Joe: Well beaten all 4 runs this prep. Not going to win here.
Comments: Strike Force is the CLEAR standout on form here for mine. Looks well suited on speed in a race where Strike Force can lead or sit outside of the leader that will most likely be Backstreet Lover. The main threat in Fife will get back from the barrier and need to be very good to run him down.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Strike Force – 3 units @ $3.3 to win. 0.9 unit – Fife @ $4.4 (Saver Bet).
Mornington Race 6 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley behind Bassett when saved ground and just wasn’t good enough at all. Not going well enough to figure here for mine.
2. Charmed Harmony: Horrible ride first up when didn’t lead. Was never a chance over the 1000m. 1200m is certainly a step short of his very best distances but the stable are convinced he can win over the 1200m. Well suited class wise here but certainly queries.
3. Reldas: Not a bad run from closer to the speed last start at Moonee Valley behind Bassett but fairly beaten on the day by 2.25L. Struggle to see the improvement needed and had to find 2+ lengths today to win!
4. Secret Agenda: 1200m G3 winner first up last prep at Caulfield when very well backed on the day. Got a soft track that day. Failed the next two runs after that beaten 4L and 4L. Won 3 of 5 first up and is clearly a fresh horse. Horrible barrier and issue.
5. Bassett: Huge win first up and looked to have gone to a new level. Backed that win up in listed grade last start at Moonee Valley from outside the leader throughout in a solid time. Huge issue today is the barrier and every chance he has to sit 3-wide the trip today or muster strongly out of the gates to get over. If he drew inside he would be a $2.50 fav.
6. Dan Zephyr: Strong run first up behind Stellar Collision in the Apache Cat. A step up in grade again here and looks well suited. Barrier doesn’t help him though today.
7. Well Sprung: Two back won well in Handicap conditions down the Flemington straight. Well out the back last start when rattled home 2nd to Bassett. Needs to improve again and will need luck in running from that far back.
8. Prussian Vixen: She is a good sort! Good win three back at Caulfield for us and then ran fairly 2nd the next start. Finally, last start she ran a blinder again and won well in a nice time. Down to 54kg again here after a Group 3 win. Take her on at your own peril as she maps to lead with Charmed Harmony.
9. Whistle Baby: BM-90 grade 4th first up over 1000m behind Rocket Tommy. Not the toughest test first up though with that sit and sprint race home. Goes only fairly 2nd up and hasn’t won in a long time. Good enough to go close from barrier but not one i’d be on.
10. Setinum: Horrible first up over 1000m. Needs further than this on what we saw last start. No thanks.
11. Fast Cash: Nothing learnt from the trial leading in. Last prep finished off with a 1200m win at MV in BM-90 grade. Certainly goes well first up and has to be respected, but he may just be a step below this.
12. Inspector: Huge run 4th two back behind He or She and then respectable 7th in the Newmarket. Steps back to this grade only beaten 1.1L behind Star Turn. Will get a strong speed as is required.
13. Heza Ripper: Two runs this prep in easier races and has been fairly beaten on both occasions. No excuses last start at Morphetville. Best in the past isn’t good enough to win here.
16. Taddei Tondo: Emergency. Not terrible last start down the straight when not suited by the tempo. Win would shock but isn’t the worst here.
Comments: Prussian Vixen is double figure odds again and once again finds a winnable race. I think there looks more early speed in this one than the last few starts which is the only negative for her, but I couldn’t honestly back Bassett or Secret Agenda from those barriers today, nor Charmed Harmony over 1200m and Well Sprung maps too far back.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12
Strategy: Prussian Vixen E/W
Mornington Race 7 – 2400m – Ladbrokes Mornington Cup
1. Almoonqith: Terrible last start in the Roy Higgins over 2600m when well beaten but had just had injections and was a solid excuse for mine. Finished off solidly enough in the Peter Young but hasn’t shown me enough to consider a chance today at the weights.
2. Tally: Fairly beaten first up over 1600m and wasn’t bad over the 1800m in the Peter Young. Last start in the Australia Cup from off the speed was not terrible when checked 150m out. Blinkers on. Will be taking a sit and hoping the speed is on.
3. The Gold Trail: Career best run over in Meydan heading into this beating top quality horse Prize Money who came out next start and beat multiple group winner Postponed. The Gold Trail is very nicely rated for a horse on the up and gets in very well here. Perfect barrier to go forward and sit on the speed or take a sit from.
5. Annus Mirabilis: Out and out stayer this horse. Best seen over further than this as seen by the Adelaide Cup win. Two and three back showed to be that he is a few lengths short of his very best over these distances and he probably wants 4000m to find his very best. Minor chance for mine.
6. Boom Time: Had his chance but just not good enough to match such a tough tempo in the Australian Cup. Still ran on boldly for 6th and was a nice run heading in. No query over 2400m but query over just how good he is. Will get a nice spot from the barrier.
7. Big Memory: 2600m winner last start nosing out Cadillac Mountain. Settler’s Stone close home in 3rd puts a query over the form of that race for mine. Back to 2400m. Expect he will as always run a decent race but tougher today from barrier 13 to get the right spot in run.
8. Dark Eyes: Won two in a row including the Canberra Cup over 2000m. First attempt at 2400m but looks to be a stayer so no issues. Beat off a non-winner in Cool Chap and personally i think he is out of his grade just now today.
10. Vengeur Masque: Fairly beaten favourite in the Stoney Creek cup. Nice run behind Boom Time two back. Not the greatest in at weights today for mine. Barrier helps chances.
11. Self Sense: Didn’t run badly last start in the Yarra Valley Cup when 5th behind Hard Call. Jump up in grade again but does want the step up distance wise it appears.
12. Cadillac Mountain: Close 2nd last start behind Big Memory. Trial since over 2400m over Hurdles. Will stay no issues with that but question over his class and heart.
14. Youl Dash for Cash: Struggled three runs in this prep and then goes bang in the Stoney Creek Cup. Horse on the rise but even I can’t suggest it here.
15. Settler’s Stone: 3.3L off Big Duke two back in the Launceston Cup and 4.6L off Count Da Vici the run before (3L off Big Duke). Ran home soundly in the Roy Higgins from too far back compared to the top two. Hard to suggest the win.
16. Unfurl: Struggled fresh over 2040m in much easier at Moonee Valley. Would need a miracle to get into the field and then luck and huge improvement to win this coming off a Burrumbeet Cup win four runs back.
Comments: There looks a load of ‘early speed’ on in this race and they will certainly be fighting for position coming into the first turn.. every chance there are horses 3 and 4 wide going into it. The Gold Trail is a horse I have been keen on since they announced he was coming out and with the gem of a barrier 6 draw i’m even keener. This is a quality horse on the up well weighted against a Mornington Cup type field. Main dangers? I’m happy to take on Dark Eyes today and the same with Tally. I think Boom Time has the ability from a good barrier to run well and Goldstream is a proven quantity. Even Big Memory is hard to ignore on previous runs if you want chances. I’d probably say the blowout chance is Self Sense… but even with all of that, the price they are giving us for The Gold Trail is value to be and we will bet it.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 11
Strategy: The Gold Trail – 5 units @ $2.60 to win.
Mornington Race 8 – 1600m – Mornington Jeep & Nissan Guineas
1. Cliff Hanger: Strong barrier today. Measured up over the 1800m well behind Farson in the Autumn Classic and has had a month between runs. Back to 1600m probably suits better than going up in distance. Maps perfectly for a suck run behind the speed.
2. Lord Macau: Waterhouse stable having a great time recently raiding down south and they are now sending this talented 1600m prospect. 3rd behind Hey Doc over 1500 last prep, he hasn’t quite gone on with it this prep over the shorter distances.. but was a good Heavy 8 track winner last start. Will enjoy leading and enjoy the 1600m. Respect his ability.
3. Odeon: CL1 winner heading into this. Previous prep placed 4th over 1800m in Stakes grade behind Wine Bush and 6th behind Good Standing over 2000m. Best runs were over further and looks to be wanting further than this. Tough jump in grade. Does map well though.
4. No Commitment: Well named horse. Won a maiden and CL1 before flying home from the back into 2nd (still beaten fairly) in BM-64 grade two back. No excuses last start as favourite over 1400m. Up to 1600m again but has to improve.
7. Screamarr: Cummings stable sending down a maiden winner from up north after a respectable 1300m win on a Soft track. Clearly an untapped ability type of horse but has had enough starts at this distance in the past for me to ignore here.
9. Lucky Leslie: Maiden winner over 1450m after 4 attempts to get one. Wasn’t a high rating race on the day or time wise. Has to be very good to improve and win this.
10. Florida Keys: BM-64 grade winner first up this prep before held up in the Kevin Hayes and ran okay. Held up again in the Vanity when 4th behind Harlow Gold and Kenedna. Last start looked just an ignore run compared to the previous but was still a good run. 1600m should suit and looks a key danger.
11. Star Patriot: Bm-58 grade win two back before fairly beaten BM-64 grade last start over 1600m. Take on.
12. Outback Rain: Interesting horse this one. 2nd in 3YF-SWP grade last prep over 1400m at Caulfield and 5th behind Inside Agent in listed company over 1400m. Was only fair first up over 1300m but blinkers on today and tongue tie on.
13. Red is the Rose: C Williams onboard. Led last start over 1400m behind I Am a Star beaten 150m out. Nicely in at weights here and should have no issues with 1600m. Respect.
Comments: Tough race on paper and measures up that way overall. I’m not sure I could take $3.70 for Red is the Rose. Yes the horse gets the lead spot and will run well but the price is little to no value. I also have a query over the Farson form from all the runners behind so I couldn’t dive into the under $5 quote for Cliff Hanger. I’d be playing this one wide with a bet on Florida Keys and Outback Rain.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 10, 12, 13
Strategy: Back both Florida Keys and Outback Rain
Mornington Race 9 – 1200m – Cleanaway Handicap
1. Just Magical: Nice enough type of horse that sits off the speed and battles away. Doesn’t win often but goes well enough. Was a good run but fairly beaten 6th in the Apache Cat when well backed on the day. Previous start in the Sale Quality a nice 2nd to Rock ‘n’ Gold. Maps well again and nicely in with claim.
2. Spreadeagled: Trialled strongly heading into this prep after a 90 day layoff. Last prep found absolutely nothing. As far back in class as he will ever get you would imagine and this is a horse that has always had a load of talent. Well in with 59kg and looks over the odds.
3. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Went through the grades last prep and proved to be a nice horse with a 4th in the Silverbowl and BM-70 win at Sandown… finishing with a BM-78 win at Sale over 1421. 1200m is certainly short of his very best distance, but he trialed nicely enough over the 990m heading in and i’m expecting a good run from the inside barrier.
6. Belesron: Two runs this prep beaten 6.9L and 3.7L in similar grades of races. Hard to suggest on current form.
7. Bon Rocket: Looked to be going well at the start of his prep but has fallen away a bit lately. Beaten 4.3L last start at Flemington in harder company. Beaten 4th from on speed two back over 1400m at Sandown. Perhaps just needs the 1200m and this grade to measure up? Bad barrier and Newitt put me off.
8. Sahara Chill: 1300m winner to end last prep at Warwick Farm. First up wasn’t well fancied in a F&M 78 race and ran accordingly beaten 3.9L from on speed. That being said was only 0.4L off 2nd. Wasn’t a great level of race though and Euston Road the winner has failed since in town.
9. Fabulonh: Heavy 9 winner over 1400m and then well beaten in the Greys race 6th over 1400m at the Flemington Carnival on a good track. First up today and only goes fairly first up. Has won over distance in past but on heavy tracks. Need to be good here.
10. Maternal: Two trials heading into the first up run so should be fit enough if good enough. Both trials were fair without impressing. Clearly best on last prep was in races over further and in easier grades of races. Does have ability but does map awkwardly.
11. Sir Mask: Two runs this prep for a 2nd and 4th. Step up in grade here has him needing a lot of luck in run. Place chance for mine.
Comments: Looks a fair bit of value around in this race. Foure key chances on my ratings and Spreadeagled is clearly over the odds.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 10
Strategy: Spreadeagled E/W
