Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – William Hill Cox Plate
The 2015 Cox Plate looks to be one of the most exciting of the past decade with speed aplenty and nowhere to hide. The Cox Plate is a unique race. Generally speaking, you always see the best horses stand up and it’s rare to see an equally weighted lesser horse get one over on the others. With a stack of quality we are presented with opportunities… but as you all know the biggest opportunity was to back both Arod and Highland Reel when it was confirmed that they were coming out here, with both moving in from $20+ to single figures with most bookies. The Moonee Valley track has been prepared an absolute treat, so don’t expect bias to play any part in a result.
1. Criterion: Ran very well in the Caulfield Stakes to hold off Happy Trails and Mongolian Khan. Drawn perfectly in barrier 7 to get a midfield run. Clearly good enough to win.
2. Fawkner: Just ignore the fact he went around last start at Caulfield and rate on previous two runs. Clearly goes well at this course and this distance. Barrier a massive issue.
3. Happy Trails: Got the ‘winners’ run last start at Caulfield but Criterion got the better of him. Always finds a way to run well in the big races. Certainly a very good lead in run last start.
4. Hartnell: Drawn to get a very good run from barrier 3. Expect to see him sit 3 sets back. Ridden cold last start in the Turnbull and was suited by a strong tempo which works out well coming into this race. Showed the turn of foot required off a tough run to put in a winning run over the final 400m. Looks the forgotten horse.
5. Mourinho: The battler from the bush, Mourinho won two Group 2s last prep and this prep improved on that record with a Group 2 win first up and a Group 1 win last start heading into this. The horse is proven at the course and over this distance, but most importantly, loves a hot speed. Wide barrier doesn’t help things, but expect him to be in the top 4-6 in running and i wouldn’t be surprised if he sits outside The Cleaner early.
6. The Cleaner: Three runs this prep for a G2 win, G2 2nd (0.1L) and G1 3rd (0.2L). Going much better this prep than last prep on my numbers and hasn’t had a hard test all prep having been going much slower the first 800m this prep. Take him on at your own risk, he has the scope to win this.
7. Pornichet: Another from the Caulfield Stakes you probably have to forgive. His George Main run was good, but he isn’t going well enough to be considered a winning chance in this. One i’m happy to take on.
8. Arod: Finished off last prep with a strong 0.5L 2nd behind Solow in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Solow is the pinnacle of 1600m form right now and won another Group 1 over the weekend with relative ease. The question you are asking is will Arod get the 2000m? The horses first ever win in a maiden was the 2000m… he then ran 2nd to The Grey Gatsby in the Dante Stakes and 4th in the Derby over 2400m. His best runs recently have been between 1600-1800m, but he clearly on breeding and past results gets the distance.
9. Complacent: His win in the Craven was good, but Hauraki didn’t exactly set the world on fire in the Caulfield Cup to frank the form one bit. Will be on speed and will have to battle The Cleaner home. The Hill Stakes run suggests he can run well at the top level, but doesn’t suggest to me that he should be favoured in this.
10. Gailo Chop: Group winner over the 2000m over in France. The issue with a horse of his scope is that his best runs in the past have clearly been on Heavy tracks. He has won Group 2 races in the past over the 2000m on a Good track and did run Solow to 1.5L over 1800m on a good surface also, but this is his toughest test yet on a dry track.
11. Kermadec: Given a no hope ride last start, but his final 200m was very disappointing in comparison to others in the race sectional wise as well as the fact Mongolian Khan went right past him and beat him by 2 lengths that final 300m. I’m convinced there is a distance query on the horse and even a form query this prep on the horse. With a strong tempo expected and the barrier, I’m happy to take the horse on.
12. Preferment: He is the absolute dark horse of the race for mine. A Group 2 and Group 1 win to lead in over this distance is obviously ideal, but just how good have the wins been? I think he had great rides in both races but the concern is he only just got there in both of them beating horses that would be poorly weighted at the WFA weights in this race. The big issue for mine is with the tempo just how far back the horse will be. It’s hard to question the form lines and also the horses staying ability though, so i think he is a key player.
13. Highland Reel: Won a Group 3 over 2400m and then flew over to the USA to win the Group 1 Secretariat by a lazy 5 lengths. Followed that up by a 3.8L 5th in the G1 Irish Championship with the winner then going on to win the Arc. Drawn ideal in barrier 4, expect him to be just off the speed given every possible chance. I think the fact we know the horse handles 2400m, any surface and has run well in the past over 2000m including a G1 win, no matter what happens, he will be running well. The money has clearly come and he has been backed into favourite.
14. Winx: Smashed the field in the Epsom last start up at Randwick. Has a turn of foot that most others simply don’t have. From Barrier 1, she will be going out the back and will need an absolute dream run. She has never had to beat a field of this quality in the past and her very best runs have been on longer straights than this. I’m one of Winx’s biggest fans, but I can’t justify single figures.
Verdict
With The Cleaner, Arod and even Gailo Chop in the race, you can expect a genuine tempo out the front. I’m a big believer in the fact that if The Cleaner is in the race, then you need to be midfield or further forward to be winning. Looking at it simply, i’m taking on Kermadec and Winx massively as well as Complacent. I’ve been in the Arod camp all this time and at the double figure price on offer, there is no reason to jump off now. Hartnell is the most interesting runner for mine 3rd up off a very good run, from the perfect barrier you can expect Hartnell to sit no worse than midfield and to be peaking. Highland Reel has been well backed all week and will get a dream run from the barrier and I think you obviously have to respect the horse. I took $8s on Saturday and that is the minimum I would be betting the horse at in this race. Criterion has been well backed since the last start win and I think you have to respect the horse. As my ratings below suggest, I believe almost every horse can win.
Top Pick: Arod
Best Value: Hartnell
Top Chances
8. Arod
13. Highland Reel
4. Hartnell
High Chance
1. Criterion
2. Fawkner
Medium Chance
3. Happy Trails
5. Mourinho
6. The Cleaner
12. Preferment
14. Winx
Low Chance
10. Gailo Chop
9. Complacent
11. Kermadec
Minimal Chance
7. Pornichet
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 13, 14
