1. Lucky Hussler: Huge Group 1 win last start disadvantaged by the Handicaps as well. Up into WFA-G2 today which is a massive positive today and Stratum Star has won since also. Barrier is ideal… will get a gun run and every chance.
2. Hooked: Measured up to the top level in the past but never got a WFA win. Obviously will be on speed and setting a tempo out front. Struggle to suggest on two recent runs.
3. Strawberry Boy: No disgrace last start, just went way too fast in the Group 1. Has to clearly improve lengths here today and won’t get any easy lead and doesn’t want one.. three front runners today.
4. Amovatio: Good win last start at Caulfield.. horse is going well. Should have won by about 3 lengths at very least. Horses best runs for mine are later into preps, but last start he was allowed to out sprint them. Not sure he is the same level as Lucky Hussler from the poor barrier.
5. Rudy: Well beaten in the Epsom. Best runs on wetter tracks in past. Not a WFA horse for mine.
6. Bow Creek: The most interesting runner in the race. Clearly a good miler with WFA-G2 and Group 2 wins over in the UK. Last two runs though have been 5.3L last and 22L last.
7. Hopfgarten: He isn’t going well enough to consider.
8. Richie’s Vibe: Ran well last start at caulfield… but he isn’t suited up to 1600m for mine not under WFA conditions. Decent type but not this level.
9. Sons of John: Going very well this prep. Last two runs very strong and Group 3 winner last prep. Looks very progressive this guy and maps very well from an inside barrier today for once! Value.
10. Malice: Decent enough run two back behind Forget at Newcastle but had every chance that day. Not this class.
11. Turn Me Loose: Very strong win at Seymour last start. Well weighted in WFA grade here but this is a much harder race than last start. Every chance from barrier.
12. Worthy Cause: Disappointing 4th last start at Caulfield. Step up to 1600m should suit but poorly weighted against Turn Me Loose here.
Comments: Only four chances on paper from mine in this race. Bow Creek has the top ratings to win from over in the UK. Sons of John is running well enough to cause a surprise from a positive position in running and Turn Me Loose is a Group 1 winner coming off a strong win with 60kg. Lucky Hussler is the way to play, obviously, well in under the WFA weight scale. It does feel like only the ride can cost Lucky Hussler today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Lucky Hussler to win.
