em>Gear Changes: Almoonqith – Standard Bit First Time, Ihtsahymn – Blinkers Off First Time – Tounge Tie Off First Time, Foundry – Hoof Pads Off First Time, Lord of Brazil – Blinkers Again, Blackie – Cross Over Noseband Off Again – Bit Lifter Again, Supreme Warrior – Winkers Off Again – Blinkers Off First Time, Letmedowngently – Bubble Cheeker Off Side On First Time
1. Almoonqith: International runner over from Dubai. Won a Group 3 over 2800m last prep and also R-98 over 1600m. 1500m today in Open class and rates well obviously… but never won first up (won alot 2nd up though) so may really just need the run today in this grade… reckon the track won’t exactly suit either.
2. Kenjorwood: Very very very good horse. Placed in all of his last 13 runs as well. Performs on good soft or heavy tracks and best distances have been 1600-1800m. Wide barrier today will be pushing forward to be on speed setting a tempo and be hard to get past.
3. Ihtsahymn: First up run was quite good all things considered for the 1400m. Clearly needs to improve from that run and is best later into runs from previous preps form.
4. Foundry: Best suited by longer straight tracks and further distances it seems. One i want to take on here.
5. Lord of Brazil: Not in this class on recent form.
6. The United States: WFA-G3 winner back in Ireland in 2013.. only manage a 3rd to Mourinho in Aus as best run since. Long time between runs a concern and maps out the back.
7. Abbasso: Very disappointing run last start at Flemington ridden on speed and fell out quickly. Back to 1500m looks ideal i have to say but dryer track a concern on recent run form. Still should run well.
8. Blackie: I like the boy but his form this prep hasn’t said a win is on the cards.
9. Supreme Warrior: Ran on well first up, liked his run. Up in distance ideal on a dryer track. Should run really well and barrier suits for a charmed run.
10. Upbeat: Probably leads from the inside barrier. First up run on heavy an ignore. Did win last prep over further in open grade.
11. Letmedowngently: Tall ship form last prep stacked up with a very good run over 1400m first up.. eye-catching run… in for a big prep and dryer track suits up in distance.
12. Volontiers: Got the win last start just. Previous run to Volcanic Ash was good also. Push forward.
Comments: Kenjorwood is the real deal and a repeat of anywhere near peak run will be very hard to get past especially if the rail is playing to those on speed. Consistent type having placed in 13 of his last 13 runs. Based on the current win odds on offer at Betfair with $4.20, we should be getting $1.80+ for the place.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Kenjorwood 2 units to place 1 unit to win
