Gear Changes: Kuro – Tongue Tie First Time, I’m All The Talk – Bubble Cheeker Near Side On OFF again & Winkers Again & Blinkers Off First Time, Sistonic – Lugging Bit Off First Time & Standard Bit First Time & Tongue Tie First Time, Furnaces – Cross Over Noseband Off First Time, Parcel – Tongue Tie Off First Time.
1. Chautauqua: First time at Moonee Valley certainly a consideration you have to take into account. Best runs have been seen at tracks with long straights. Won 3 from 4 first up and finished last prep winning the TJ and then 0.5L 3rd to Dissident… hard to argue with that form. Certainly will need a bit of luck from barrier 12 in running but he is a superstar. The main issue is the lack of form from this stable right now… have they got things going right for this bloke?
2. Flamberge: Clear danger to the favourite on ratings. Group 1 winner last prep over in Morphetville. Ran Chautauqua to 0.2L first up last prep also. Clear danger and maps perfectly.
3. It Is Written: Doesn’t win out of turn and last win was in much easier class. First up form only fair at best. Loves this track.
4. Kuro: With the Freedman stable now, this bloke loves to run well without winning as proved by last prep! Obviously a serious horse and barrier 2 today gives him every chance. First up record is great and he runs well at all tracks.
5. The Quarterback: Better runs always later into preps. Good type over this distance in the past but first run at MV a concern. Has the ability so don’t dismiss. Bleed issues last prep i was told.
6. It’s All the Talk: Disappointing last prep couldn’t get a place. In reality first up run was okay but didn’t deliver on previous prep form. One i want to take on today.
7. Tycoon Tara: Consistent type, she ran some very nice races last prep with wins over her own sex. Much harder here first up today.
8. Miss Steele: Every chance all three runs last prep. 4th in FM-Gp1 hard to just ignore and expected to be not dead last today (still out the back).
9. Sweet Emily: Two runs to date suggest not a chance in hell. Gone backwards.
10. Klishina: Too far back last start to be a real threat… liked the run but barrier 15 today gives no chance to redeem that run.
11. Written Dash: One hit wonder, doubt she will win another race.
12. Sistonic: Proved to have a lot of ability first prep in. Stable suggests she is the best horse going around at home in terms of how she works and they feel she has to be considered if she can produce today.
14. Furnaces: Finished last prep with a very good 2YO-G3 win. Previous run 2l 6th in the Golden Slipper a good run also. Respect and the weight gives massive chance to him.
Comments: A race in five by our numbers. I had to include Kuro but i couldn’t back at the price offered today. Sistonic is in the same boat. Furnaces looks a very good horse in the making but off the 2YO runs i have to take on every at the weights in this top level before i see he is the real deal. We are getting some good prices today to be able to back both Chautauqua and Flamberge to come up with a result.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14
Strategy: Chautauqua 2.5 units to win. Flamberge 1 unit to win. (Roughly $1.90 odds for either to win)
