1. Shards: Ignore last start and rate on previous runs. Horse has the ability to sit on speed and finish off with a Group 3 win on record and 3L 2nd to Press Statement. No surprise to see money has come for him from a nice barrier.
2. Sovereign Nation: Can’t really go wrong with that run last start in the Guineas for 4th. Looking for further and gets it today. Looks a very nice type and clear chance.
3. Last Bullet: Ignore the Guineas run out the back, but it was a disappointing finish off the race. Has ability based on two back run and is bred to get this distance.
4. Tarzino: Very good horse and favourite for the features going forward. No luck in the Guineas and should have finished a lot closer. Crying out for this distance today. Will be out the back and coming late. Big turn of foot.
5. Kentucky Flyer: 3YO winner this prep then well beaten last two starts. Hard to have on last two runs against these top class horses.
6. Hierarchal: 1.5L 4th in Group 1 company up at Randwick last start has to be respected here today. Maps in the 2nd half of the field.
7. Red Alto: Very strong 2nd three back on heavy but last two runs been horrible. Hard to have.
8. Tally: Lazy 7 length win at Kyneton last start in maiden company. This is obviously harder, but he is getting up to his required distances.
10. Pasadena Girl: They keep backing her and she keeps not winning. Is she really crying out for the 2000m or is she more a sprinter? Personally I feel she is a 1200-1600m horse but her best is over the 1200-1400m at the top class. Horrible barrier today! Prove me wrong.
11. Jameka: Well backed in the Guineas last start and was a super run for 2nd behind Stay With Me. Continues to run well and positive barrier will see her on speed here today. Looks to be no issues with the distance.
12. Sagaronne: Disappointing last start at Caulfield and even the run before. Ran 0.8L 2nd to Press Statement the previous prep.
Comments: This race looks to be the race of the day outside of the Cox Plate with several quality horses battling for the win. Tarzino is clearly the one i want to be on over these distances going forward, but can you give a classy field like this the advantage of being first into the straight? I’ll play the Quaddie but not sure I can play the win bets here.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Tarzino to win.
